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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #13,021
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:12pm Mar 19, 2008 1:12pm
Thanks Phillip. I think too that the waiting is the best thing to do here.
Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #13,022
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:27pm Mar 19, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
You made the right trade. Stop just could have been above 89 but it would have been to much. The pullback to the 89 and that tail on the 1H was the reentry. But to chase the market I dont like either. But see this as a positive trade.
Phillip
Thanks Phillip, learning every day.
  • #13,023
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:34pm Mar 19, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting EricthePip
Ira,

Nice chart. There was a support resistance line around 1.9950. That's probably why the market bounced higher there. That 1hr pb (1400) was a great entry on break below that s/r line.... Maybe we'll get a another shot, well see what happens at the 200, may pause and give us a TC....
That would be nice , but first 8EMA should catch the price, like Rebecca says "the boy" has gone too far in the wood.
  • #13,024
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:41pm Mar 19, 2008 2:41pm
Watch out for support along the trendline. Might wanna wait til it breaks support before entering shorts.
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  • #13,025
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:20pm Mar 19, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting luckytiger
Thank you very much for your reply. It all makes sense especially since I am in the process of learning. Before I read this thread I had no idea about the market rhythm. For the moment I only use the 4 hour. When I feel I know it I will look at 1 hour (I looked at 1 hour a few times but it confused me and I prefer to wait the 4 hour candle before entering a trade).
Stay with the 4hr for a while before venturing to the 1hr. Don't rush anything, the markets aren't going anywhere...

Nice wrap-up Phillip. A change in direction for the EU, it looks like it is getting weaker here and the 89 might get tested before to long. My Euro cow from 2/20 was 60 pips away from getting stopped out, SL is at 5520 so my friend and I might say goodbye sometime soon but it will end up being a nice ride for about 900 pips or so. I think on the website I mentioned that life sometimes gets in the way of trading and the past month, this month, and maybe the next will be one of those times. I've just got a lot on my plate right now and haven't been posting as much as I would have like to. I do wish I could do this full time, just not there yet. I have some ideas for a 'gauge' if you will, for a combination of a few indicators that when combined look really promising for the BladeRunner (per the 1hr)that could also be used with the 4hr to really show the strength of the current trend and only tell you to be long, be short, or just wait. It's all on the drawing board and my .mql programming is really rusty. It's a very simple concept, like the method. I just haven't had a whole lot of time lately to sit down an do one thing for a long period of time. Phillip, I haven't emailed you about it yet but I'll do that soon. So, there's patience with trading, and patience with life too I suppose. It's getting there, just need to take care of business at home base first every so often. Watching for a shorty on the EU as well.....
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  • #13,026
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:56pm Mar 19, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting Palmer
Stay with the 4hr for a while before venturing to the 1hr. Don't rush anything, the markets aren't going anywhere...

Nice wrap-up Phillip. A change in direction for the EU, it looks like it is getting weaker here and the 89 might get tested before to long. My Euro cow from 2/20 was 60 pips away from getting stopped out, SL is at 5520 so my friend and I might say goodbye sometime soon but it will end up being a nice ride for about 900 pips or so. I think on the website I mentioned that life sometimes gets in the way of trading and the past month, this month, and maybe the next will be one of those times. I've just got a lot on my plate right now and haven't been posting as much as I would have like to. I do wish I could do this full time, just not there yet. I have some ideas for a 'gauge' if you will, for a combination of a few indicators that when combined look really promising for the BladeRunner (per the 1hr)that could also be used with the 4hr to really show the strength of the current trend and only tell you to be long, be short, or just wait. It's all on the drawing board and my .mql programming is really rusty. It's a very simple concept, like the method. I just haven't had a whole lot of time lately to sit down an do one thing for a long period of time. Phillip, I haven't emailed you about it yet but I'll do that soon. So, there's patience with trading, and patience with life too I suppose. It's getting there, just need to take care of business at home base first every so often. Watching for a shorty on the EU as well.....
Hey Palmer,

Very nice trade man congratulations, I' ll have a cigar to celebrate for you. I got a good entry on that trade also but closed out too soon. Made good pips there too, but have to work on letting trades fly some more. Even though I am using a litlle EA to help me close my trades in 3 parts when I m sleeping. But Im still testing it because it has some bugs. Well together all of us will have lots more chances to get good pips.
The more obstacles I overcome the better man I become.
  • #13,027
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:59pm Mar 19, 2008 7:59pm
I tried this and after I clicked insert image it prompted me for my URL. Can you help?
Thanks
Raymond

Quoting mark r
Hi Roy,

I tend to save the chart "as picture" from "file" in Metatrader to a folder on my hard drive and then use the "insert image" button (mountain) on the menu bar in FF to select the picture and insert it

There may be other ways but thats how I do it

Hope that helps

regards

Mark
  • #13,028
  • Mar 19, 2008 10:36pm Mar 19, 2008 10:36pm
Quoting kc8flq
Watch out for support along the trendline. Might wanna wait til it breaks support before entering shorts.
The thing that I hate about trendlines is most of the time you can adjust them to suit whatever conclusion you want to arrive at. I am starting to look at them less and less because when I enter a trade my first PT is almost alway a test of a very recent high/low because I trade only TCs.

I have simplified my analysis to follow only phillip's trending TC rhythm of pullback to 8-21 4H EMA area after a previous clearly visible price move. With aid of a few s/r fib lines, candle pattern & price action I am able to follow the price movements looking for only my perfect entry points that occur once or twice a week between EUR & GBP.

Currently looking for short entries on both EUR & GBP ..... but only if price action behaves exactly the way I want. There were no trade entries yesterday for me because price action didn't behave the way I like to trade.
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  • #13,029
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:32pm Mar 19, 2008 11:32pm
Hi Raymond,

checked it through- in my effort to be helpful I have got the button on FF wrong- sorry about that!

if you click on the paperclip on the menu bar then browse for attachment and upload your picture file from where you have stored it- that should do it

hope that helps

regards

Mark
  • #13,030
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:53pm Mar 19, 2008 11:53pm
I have a silly question. On Ira post 13014 the chart shows a -2 strong bear rhythm. Based on what I can deduce from fxtradeblog website I assume that a rhythm (bull/bear) is first determined from whether it is above or below the 89 sma. Then the strength of the rhythm is then based on the same closing price and its relation to both the 8ema and the 89 sma.

Does the direction of 89 ema have any correlation to the rhythm strength? On Ira's post the chart the 89 sma is still in a bullish direction.

Thanks,
Roy
  • #13,031
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:28am Mar 20, 2008 12:28am
Would the euro as it currently sits be a weak bull trend or a weak bear trend.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf euro 4hr.pdf   20 KB | 777 downloads
  • #13,032
  • Mar 20, 2008 5:22am Mar 20, 2008 5:22am
[quote=roy;1913804]I have a silly question. On Ira post 13014 the chart shows a -2 strong bear rhythm. Based on what I can deduce from fxtradeblog website I assume that a rhythm (bull/bear) is first determined from whether it is above or below the 89 sma. Then the strength of the rhythm is then based on the same closing price and its relation to both the 8ema and the 89 sma.

Does the direction of 89 ema have any correlation to the rhythm strength? On Ira's post the chart the 89 sma is still in a bullish direction.

Thanks,



Roy:

The basis of the 89 is: If price is above the 89 = bullish, price below = bearish. When you say 'direction' do you mean the slope or the angle? There are times when the price can be above the 89 but below the 21. This is still a bullish area but it also may signal weakness. Take a look at the EU the last few weeks and see how the close was rarely below the 8, that was strong rhythm, very bullish. We then had a close below the 21, a few times, still bullish but things are getting weak. The direction of the 89 was still up (angled up) but things may have been slowing down with the close below the 21.

One thing to note: I think we are in a situation where the fundamentals have control of things right now. The US economy along with the commodity markets are pretty much in control right now. So, this can take precedence over any method that is traded right now.

Back to the rhythm, there are those times when the price is above the 89 and above the 8 but all the three lower moving averages can be withing 20, 30, 40 pips of each other. This is market congestion or a ranging area. By definition the rhythm strength is +2 but it's best to let the market break out of this area and then wait for another 'cleaner' entry.

Update:

Well, my Euro cow finally ran out of milk and has left for greener pastures. But, she left me with about 870 gallons of pips. This position was up over 1100 at one point but I stated I was going to let the market motion take me out...salude.

The short:

I got in after that doji formed. I know this is NOT a moving average cross system but when the 8 looked like it wanted to come below the 21, and with the current fundamental situation, and a gut feeling, and the weakness of being below the 21...that was it. Sold at 5627, floating + 182 right now with 100 locked in. The thing that fascinates me about all of this is that price is right at the 89 and has stalled there which is also the bottom of the current up-channel. The 1hr is right at the 365. Again, a question for Phillip, "Did these numbers come to you in a dream?" Jobs report out in a few so who knows what will happen. I'd like to add to the short if possible but I'll wait. I see the next downside target around 5350, a previous congestion area....we'll see.
Attached Image
  • #13,033
  • Mar 20, 2008 5:27am Mar 20, 2008 5:27am
I was looking at the USD/CHF at the closing of 4:00 candle thinking whether to enter or not in the trade. My reason for enter was that it was an engulfing bullish candle, the next candle have closed above the TL. Price was in a down trend and pulled to the 8 and 21EMA, closed above the 21EMA then come back to test it and stayed there for a while and now was probably going to the 89SMA since it closed above the TL.
Since I am new to this system I only take trades that are confirmed by the MACD and in this case I missed the entry at the closing of the 00:00 because I was sleeping. I thought if I missed the entry getting now in would be an impulsive reaction to get in although the setup looked good. So I decided to stay out and the trade was right.
Is it ok to get in a trade if you missed the first entry and the price didn't make a big move? Or for a newbie it is to soon to make this kind of decision?
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  • #13,034
  • Mar 20, 2008 5:31am Mar 20, 2008 5:31am
Hello ,, this was a beauty on euro last ight, i was planning and anticipating the move, even had my alarm clock set to 10 min before the candle close but for some reason i have no recollection of ever wakig up..turning the alarm clock off and going back to sleep, ...( it was at 12 AM where i live).I saw it developing around 9pm my time so thought of getting couple of hours sleep and wake up and take the trade and close of that candle....

Well this is how my trade was planned,,,
price went beck and tested the trend line and then move away so the next target was 89 MA,
Enter with 2 lots at close of 00:00 candle,
Stop loss above the signal candle ( 50pips)
Tp 1 .. second trend line(50pips)
Tp 2.. 89 sma,.(150pips)

I am happy that i am able to read the market and am willing to enter without hesitation when the set up is there. Sleep ....that is another issue
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,035
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:09am Mar 20, 2008 6:09am
Quoting luckytiger
I was looking at the USD/CHF at the closing of 4:00 candle thinking whether to enter or not in the trade. My reason for enter was that it was an engulfing bullish candle, the next candle have closed above the TL. Price was in a down trend and pulled to the 8 and 21EMA, closed above the 21EMA then come back to test it and stayed there for a while and now was probably going to the 89SMA since it closed above the TL.
Since I am new to this system I only take trades that are confirmed by the MACD and in this case I missed the entry at the closing of the 00:00 because I was sleeping. I thought if I missed the entry getting now in would be an impulsive reaction to get in although the setup looked good. So I decided to stay out and the trade was right.
Is it ok to get in a trade if you missed the first entry and the price didn't make a big move? Or for a newbie it is to soon to make this kind of decision?
Hello, you have very valid question. It is very natural to let go of a trade because you missed the entry . i have done it plenty of times. because i was not sure or did not have enough experience to anticipate the next move. Yesterday was a perfect example of the euro trade that phillip did and i missed out on because i did not enter at the right time and then let go. But with time you will see that you are able to read the market better.

In this case i would have entered at the next candle becaust it was still relatively small and there were enough pips to the the target . so your RR would still have been fine. If you woke up at close of 0400 candle and the candle emotion is still pointing towards a long move and it is not a drasticly big candle i think you would have been fine. Now it is always easy to say after wards when the trade is over ...

yeah you should have entered . it would have worked out for you..

but it is at the time of decision which is the hard part when the next candle is not visible like now.
What i realized yesterday ( an AHA moment was) that every trade is like holding a scale. you put your pros in one end and cons in the other and which ever side tips the scale you go with that. seems very basic and simple right,. The amazing thing is that simple things are right infront of us all the times. like i knew already that it is important to weigh your options and go with the direction which has higher probability BUT it is the mind which has the hard time to accept it,. That little voice keeps telling you what if it goes wrong, oh it cant move 100 pips that fast . But when you see experience taders like Phillip and Palmer taking trades so effortlessly. like Phillip says
" i would not have even think twice"
that my friend comes with experience. This is a proffession in itself and it takes time. we try to absorb too much information that seems so simple enough and burn our accounts,.But time catches up and we get our AHA moments along the way.

The important thing is that you recognized the set up and anticipated its next move. that is a big achievement. Dont let your mind hold you back the next time you have a similar opportunity because your mind can play tricks on you. and afterwards when the trade stares you in the face you think why did i not pull the trigger. always remember to weigh the scale. no 2 trades are 100 % exact but there are always similar opportunities.

I remember my first post here was " what is a Doji" I was totally blank about FOREX..In May this year it would be my first year in LEARNING forex. I think i have come a long way from " what is a Doji" but am still working on making my mind and the market go hand in hand.
Hope this help you.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #13,036
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:28am Mar 20, 2008 6:28am
Quoting luckytiger
I was looking at the USD/CHF at the closing of 4:00 candle thinking whether to enter or not in the trade. My reason for enter was that it was an engulfing bullish candle, the next candle have closed above the TL. Price was in a down trend and pulled to the 8 and 21EMA, closed above the 21EMA then come back to test it and stayed there for a while and now was probably going to the 89SMA since it closed above the TL.
Since I am new to this system I only take trades that are confirmed by the MACD and in this case I missed the entry at the closing of the 00:00 because I was sleeping. I thought if I missed the entry getting now in would be an impulsive reaction to get in although the setup looked good. So I decided to stay out and the trade was right.
Is it ok to get in a trade if you missed the first entry and the price didn't make a big move? Or for a newbie it is to soon to make this kind of decision?
This one was a great pattern acording to Phillip's breakout entry concepts, don't worry for missed trades wait patiently for next one.
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  • #13,037
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:40am Mar 20, 2008 6:40am
YOU HAVE TO MASTER THIS RHYTHM CYCLE TO SEE WHAT TO ANTICIPATE
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  • #13,038
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:48am Mar 20, 2008 6:48am
Quoting mkain
This one was a great pattern acording to Phillip's breakout entry concepts, don't worry for missed trades wait patiently for next one.
Look how it run on the TL before moving away.
Phillip
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  • #13,039
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:56am Mar 20, 2008 6:56am
Quoting BIL2205
I am happy that i am able to read the market

reading the market after the 89 had already been touched is so easy.
  • #13,040
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:49am Mar 20, 2008 7:49am
Quoting mike_dg
reading the market after the 89 had already been touched is so easy.
When price is in an uptrend and it goes below 21 it tends to pull back to it and then may go down to 89. That has been tought from the beginning and so many times. So it is nothing new. Just prove that it works. Even if someone is posting it after the time just confirm something that has been taught many times and it proves that it works but some people just dont believe it. Unfortuantly they lose out.
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