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Pivot Trading

Quoting disbellj
GBP was of course big winner this week. You can clearly see what all 8 currencies did for the week and day and hour at top left corner of pic. Can't say I'm profitable myself, but working on it. Thanks Davit for this thread. Man it would be cool if I could understand your way and possibly build an advisor (I got multiple great shells I've built). I like and want to trade whole market, which is why I code what I do. But trading on open bar I lose a lot, which I don't think I would if I waited for bars to close before entering or exiting. Kindest...
My way of trading is laid out here clearly. Try focus less on the Bar and more on news and pivot levels.
Success is a habit practice it daily
Try guys having a feel for possible trades for next week.Mark them and keep it in your focus.You only need 1 or 2 great trades to hit weekly goal.
NC AC are in my focus. After stellar CAD data CAD is still strong however should trade talks go well I anticipate AUD and NZD gaining over CAD.These are my thoughts just sharing EA hits 63 or 6280 its in my sell zone....That's something to be aware.Notice strong support at Pivot both AC and NC
That's classic range situation.
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Success is a habit practice it daily
Quoting Davit
Hi guys I am happy to see this thread not dying.Lot went through in my personal life and prefer keeping it private.Will get back to your PM's there are lots of them I am involving as a trader and one thing I noticed more and more about the markets how much fundamentals play a part and which solidified my convictions that What I am doing Pivots and News fundies PA are solid combinations. Had a great day today 3400 and whole Oct Sept was great as well. Below todays trades and this weeks. I hit EA hard was in a range and I love range.Keep it green...
Im glad that you are back Davit, i hope everything is OK with you and your love once these was awesome week for me all winers
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Quoting Davit
Hi guys I am happy to see this thread not dying...
A great return.
Welcome back Davit !
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
Quoting Davit
Hi guys I am happy to see this thread not dying.Lot went through in my personal life and prefer keeping it private.Will get back to your PM's there are lots of them I am involving as a trader and one thing I noticed more and more about the markets how much fundamentals play a part and which solidified my convictions that What I am doing Pivots and News fundies PA are solid combinations. Had a great day today 3400 and whole Oct Sept was great as well. Below todays trades and this weeks. I hit EA hard was in a range and I love range.Keep it green...
Welcome back! We've been holding the fort for you. I hope all is well.
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
Quoting Davit
Try guys having a feel for possible trades for next week.Mark them and keep it in your focus.You only need 1 or 2 great trades to hit weekly goal. NC AC are in my focus. After stellar CAD data CAD is still strong however should trade talks go well I anticipate AUD and NZD gaining over CAD.These are my thoughts just sharing EA hits 63 or 6280 its in my sell zone....That's something to be aware.Notice strong support at Pivot both AC and NC That's classic range situation. {image} {image}
AC and NC on Daily's they've been pretty beat down. We're in the midst of an election here in Canada. I believe the vast majority of us Canadians are hoping to replace twat waffle Trudeau. I also wonder if the strong numbers they posted are pure pre-election BS as everyone I know is slower than molasses in -40. One guy I know was all excited the other day because they gave him one day of work the first day he's had since July.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
Quoting Davit
{quote} thanks friend.Its a good question.China is the main trading partners of Australia and New Zealand hence they get effected most.AUD sells almost all their iron ore to China therefore its impact is immediate. NZD is effected as well but slightly less so then AUD Regards Having said this all Yen pairs are over stretched but staying clear of them now.Trade talks stall Yen gets bought heavy if successful talks Yen continues to depreciate cross all pairs. Love to see NJ CJ drop so I can buy with plus swap.
Cheers Davit
Interesting stuff. To help my understanding of the macro-level trade deals, and in an effort to help me understand market movements I was thinking to jot down some of this data. Although fundies and techies do not always have synergies, it keeps me ticking and I like the idea of having a view on the global picture. Through my work at the hedge fund I have a licensed Reuters Eikon account, on there is a graphical map of the globe showing some really interesting stuff on macro's, infrastructure projects, oil rigs, transport links, iron and various commodity trades. I will try to take a screenshot a share here at some point or I'll ping it over to you.

Going back to the point. You're absolutely correct.
http://www.worldstopexports.com/aust...port-partners/
Clearly shows Australia's exports just shy of 30% to China, so I guess what we're saying is if there is a trade agreement, China continues it's growth and continues it's importing of Iron ore and various other commodities from Australia, in turn creating demand for AUD across the board. On the flip side, no trade agreement means the countries continue to import from China and hence demand for JPY (although the latter don't quite stick with me)

Note to self: hawk eye on AUD NZD crosses
Hi guys.Weekend should be used to study the calendar map out possible trades and get ready for next week.Positive habits produce positive results.
If you find yourself just glaceing the calendar and saying it to yourself "nahh not worth putting time" then you are cutting corners and your pencil tip is not sharp anymore.Its a job guys not a hobby.

After almost 8yrs of trading I can categorically say markets are driven by fundamentals and technicals (Pivots) helps mapping out the positions.
Its your job getting in sink with the market moves and for that its vital you keep it up with news events.
Its less about what MA crossed to what MA which line was more important then other.What indicator you got at the bottom of your chart.Almost all these are nonsense.Keep your focus on the market
Success is a habit practice it daily
Quoting r61
Calendar events for week two October I don't usually share my Calendar events here, I just write on paper and leave it close to the screen, I've been doing it for a year now. It may not be as good as what Davit does, I'm a work in progress. Mon USD Fed Chair Powell speaks He has 3 speeches this week. Let's see if he give some hint about further rate cuts. The Fed meets Oct 28-29 to consider a third rate cut. The NFP data reveals underlying strength in...
nice work keep it up
Success is a habit practice it daily
After partial positive trade talks AUD and NZD should gain next week. I kept some EA shorts still running. AC NC is in my focus.
Success is a habit practice it daily
Calendar events for next week

Notes to self
Judging number of red news on commodity pairs and China emphases and focus on them.

Monday

AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes-Based on recent decent to positive data on AUD I anticipate more positive outlook specially Trump's recent small progress on Trade issues with China hence positive is what I am looking forward for the report to be.
Notes to self /Trading ideas AC long

Tues
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks -seized to be a news lately however Average Earnings Index 3m/y better then 4% would be great

Notes to self-After rabid sell off of EG I am anticipating a reaction to north and then may consider shorting.GBP still can dive down should talks fail to produce result on Brexit and that's a real possibility therefore its important to stay clear of GBP unless it gets pushed to extremes.

CNY New Loans green here is good for AUD NZD
NZD-CPI q/q market expects no change however green here would be great NC long could be a play.

Weds (big CAD day !!)

GBP-CPI y/y 1.8% 1.7% wait and see here.

CAD CPI m/m -0.3% -0.1%
Not looking good here.Notes to self Market is always ahead of news release hence CAD sell off could start earlier week. UC back to 3250+is very doable even higher and may provide another sell opportunity.

USD Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m
They could cancel each other one positive one negative.Market is forecasting this possibility

AUD Employment Change/Unemployment Rate
Negative here has bigger impact on AUD however positive here will surely press it higher.
Notes to self may close AUD trades before this event if any.

Thurs
GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.1% -0.2 wait and see

USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 7.3 12.0
Not looking good here for USD which could propel more sell off of USD considering Feds rate cut is looming.
USD Crude Oil Inventories red here is good for CAD and Crude
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector

CNY GDP q/y 6.1% 6.2% most likely a none event
Friday none event day which could potentially be big sell off day considering which currency gets the boot during the week hence what may have happened say Thurs could continue on Friday.

Stay green and make boatload of cash!
Success is a habit practice it daily
My USDJPY, EURJPY and CADJPY trades,
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Adapt or Perish
Welcome back Davit!
Let's pile the pips!

Calendar events for week three October

Mon
CNY Trade Balance I don't think this is a mover, but is good to be aware. If positive, could give some boost to AUD and NZD
EUR Industrial Production m/m Projection is positive 0.3, previous -0.4, watching EN and EJ for shorts if data came red.
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Looking for a more positive tone due to positive data on Employment 34.7K (est 10K, prev 41.1K) and positive progress on US-China trade-war. They maybe take the wait and see approach. Let's watch. AC on watchlist for longs
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Let's wait for any dovish comment, AJ longs in mind
CNY CPI y/y pojection is slight green 2.9%, previous 2.8%, if positive is good for AUD and NZD

Tues
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Projection is 4%, if red, could give some correction on G pairs
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Forescast is negative -27, if data shows further deteriorations, considering EN and EJ for shorts
NZD GDT Price Index If green, could give some boost to EN south and NC north. Both on watchlist
NZD CPI q/q Previous data came 0.1%, projection is 0.6%, green is expected is here, would be nice to see some NZD sell-off on monday, then enter on NC and EN on tuesday

Weds
GBP CPI y/y Slight green is projected here 1.8%, previous 1.7%
CAD CPI m/m Projection is red -0.3%, previous -0.1%, market may price this and CAD could give back some gains from last friday. Watching NC
USD Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m Projection for both is positive, I usually don't trade USD (except for UC on short side). Let's watch
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks Watching for any comments about further rate cuts
AUD Employment Change Projection is 15.3K, recent data came positive, AC long and EA short on watchlist
AUD Unemployment Rate Projection 5.3%, previous 5.3%

Thurs
GBP Retail Sales m/m
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Projection here is 7.3, previous 12.0, if red, would be good to short UC, an eye on this
USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
CNY GDP q/y Projection 6.1%, previous 6.2%, a green number here is excellent for AUD and NZD



AUD, NZD and CAD on focus this week!
As Davit's says: Watch PA its the queen!
You only need 3-4 good batches of trades a month to hit 10% - Davit
The power of weekly pivots!
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Adapt or Perish
EURUSD stopping at FIB 78.6, still a down trend. Will close my sell on EURJPY before BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks and hope Kuroda can drag down EURJPY more, something positive from the UK will also help. Will then rather look to buy EURJPY.
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Adapt or Perish
On a separate note, I've been trying to create a macro-economic spreadsheet to aid my trading decisions. Something which enables to capture sentiment and general direction of a given country/currency - I'm only interested in the majors.

Does anybody know of anything similar or if anybody has created in the past?
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Hi guys looking forward to make
Be positive and dont let losers drag you down.Lots of speculations about my account.I had to take losses to cut the DD rebounded and doing well in fact increased my lot positions to average 3 to 4 that 30-40 a pip and you cant do that with account not sufficiently funded or close to"busted out"
good trader takes care of business and that's what I do.Losses need elimination will be eliminated winners will be taken in short sound trading as how it should be.
Cheers
Success is a habit practice it daily
I said Friday I let some EA run and doing well up 400 but holding this below 62
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Success is a habit practice it daily
long AC after almost 90pip drop I anticipate correction possible above 90
This trade is based on my own analyses of the calendar.
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Success is a habit practice it daily
To purest there is strong weekly rejected candle on AC
AUD may not move much until Monday Minutes but I like to be in now.
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Success is a habit practice it daily
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