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  • Post #31,881
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  • Sep 10, 2019 6:46pm Sep 10, 2019 6:46pm
  •  oswell
  • Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trust ONLY your OWN analysis ! | 692 Posts
Quoting Swede
Disliked
{quote} yup, saw that also Oswell.....it fits the Cryptosurf method without a doubt....but im taking the causious approach because of what I see on the daily and weekly charts....if it breaks north there is nothing to stop it until R61...or if it is really moving all the way up to 1.2085 area....this is why I always have my daily and weekly charts on the side becuase after looking at 30 or more charts and flipping back and forth I could easisly enter a trade just on one criteria only to be stopped out because of an early entry.....BUT THAT IS JUST...
Ignored
Swede,

Really appreciate your opinion Sir Thank you .

Green pips,
Oswell
1 simple mistake makes you become 1000x better.
2
  • Post #31,882
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  • Sep 11, 2019 11:22am Sep 11, 2019 11:22am
  •  Swede
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 484 Posts
Quoting Swede
Disliked
{quote} yup, saw that also Oswell.....it fits the Cryptosurf method without a doubt....but im taking the causious approach because of what I see on the daily and weekly charts....if it breaks north there is nothing to stop it until R61...or if it is really moving all the way up to 1.2085 area....this is why I always have my daily and weekly charts on the side becuase after looking at 30 or more charts and flipping back and forth I could easisly enter a trade just on one criteria only to be stopped out because of an early entry.....BUT THAT IS JUST...
Ignored
Follow up....so Oswell as you can see it did break north and where did it stop?? Yup, right at R61....and reversed....so to those who waited or placed some beginning sell stops at R61 have some very nice profit this morning....( I didnt take it because I was fast asleep...darn) Now if you read carefully, Cryptosurf method also says if R38 is missed probably R61 is where the shorts should be instigated...makes sense now right?
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  • Post #31,883
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  • Sep 11, 2019 11:32am Sep 11, 2019 11:32am
  •  DrForexMD
  • Joined Jun 2016 | Status: PA Pivot Trader | 3,409 Posts
Hi Friends,

Despite good Crude Red News, the WTICrude is dropping price and the expected CAD losing value with UC which rlationsip should have been opposite ! I am guess that both have hit resistances with the former at R61 and latter at R61- R38 Pivot locations are key with Oil taken precedence over UC and MM control as usual:

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Could it be that China CNY possitive Red News Loans positive sentiment for their overall economy ? The latest China starting to invest in Soy beans once again due to the coming Sino-American meeting scheduled for next month with anticipated positive outlook? Look at recent US Commodity Index DXY that is consistent reflected that China beginning to buy from US Farmers:

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Can those with more Fundamental understandings help explain this for me? Again, I just think it is a PVT Location R/S issue and MM control over news despite being postive for US Oil Inventories?

Regards,
-John
"What Goes Up, Must Come Down." - Sir Isaac Newton
Oanda - Live Return Today: 0.4%
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  • Post #31,884
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2019 11:51am Sep 11, 2019 11:51am
  •  Cryptosurf
  • Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 885 Posts
Quoting Swede
Disliked
{quote} Follow up....so Oswell as you can see it did break north and where did it stop?? Yup, right at R61....and reversed....so to those who waited or placed some beginning sell stops at R61 have some very nice profit this morning....( I didnt take it because I was fast asleep...darn) Now if you read carefully, Cryptosurf method also says if R38 is missed probably R61 is where the shorts should be instigated...makes sense now right? {image}
Ignored
Yes the general area looking for swing failures after a late week markup is the 38-61 area. If it goes beyond that then I’ll generally take a pass on it.

EJ printed a thrust candle on the 4H and so far painting a pinbar on the daily. It’s currently pausing at the prior day open.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
5
  • Post #31,885
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2019 12:03pm Sep 11, 2019 12:03pm
  •  oswell
  • Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trust ONLY your OWN analysis ! | 692 Posts
Quoting Swede
Disliked
{quote} Follow up....so Oswell as you can see it did break north and where did it stop?? Yup, right at R61....and reversed....so to those who waited or placed some beginning sell stops at R61 have some very nice profit this morning....( I didnt take it because I was fast asleep...darn) Now if you read carefully, Cryptosurf method also says if R38 is missed probably R61 is where the shorts should be instigated...makes sense now right? {image}
Ignored
Swede,

Noted with thanks , I've started to combine Crypto and Swede method now the key level looks clear on Daily TF probably should put a few sell limit order on the key level , and start to build more position if its going to the right direction .

Green Pips,
Oswell
1 simple mistake makes you become 1000x better.
4
  • Post #31,886
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2019 12:09pm Sep 11, 2019 12:09pm
  •  Cryptosurf
  • Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 885 Posts
Quoting oswell
Disliked
{quote} Swede, Noted with thanks , I've started to combine Crypto and Swede method now the key level looks clear on Daily TF probably should put a few sell limit order on the key level , and start to build more position if its going to the right direction . Green Pips, Oswell
Ignored
Just bear in mind that you may also be in a counter trend position from the larger TF direction. If that's the case then set profit targets as momentum could turn back.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
6
  • Post #31,887
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2019 12:55pm Sep 11, 2019 12:55pm
  •  Swede
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 484 Posts
Quoting oswell
Disliked
{quote} Swede, Noted with thanks , I've started to combine Crypto and Swede method now the key level looks clear on Daily TF probably should put a few sell limit order on the key level , and start to build more position if its going to the right direction . Green Pips, Oswell
Ignored
Please...this is not my method....this is Davit's method...Pivot Trading.....and Cryptosurf who brought to our attention Market Structure with weekly pivots to refine entries...he posted scenarios many times in the past but like anything, unless one pays attention application lacks. With this method, small entries at key areas, adding when price action dictates, one can almost eliminate large drawdowns.....this is not day trading but rather larger swings...from 1 day to 2 weeks for the ultimate payoff.
keep smiling....
10
  • Post #31,888
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  • Sep 11, 2019 1:47pm Sep 11, 2019 1:47pm
  •  Romanov102
  • Joined May 2018 | Status: Member | 288 Posts
Quoting DrForexMD
Disliked
Hi Friends, Despite good Crude Red News, the WTICrude is dropping price and the expected CAD losing value with UC which rlationsip should have been opposite ! I am guess that both have hit resistances with the former at R61 and latter at R61- R38 Pivot locations are key with Oil taken precedence over UC and MM control as usual: {image} {image} {image} Could it be that China CNY possitive Red News Loans positive sentiment for their overall economy ? The latest China starting to invest in Soy beans once again due to the coming Sino-American meeting...
Ignored
Hi John It all correlates until it doesn't! I used to trade a lot of oil years ago and NG they used to be fairly predictable, and have fairly consistent reactions to releases. Nowadays I don't find that as much.The news comes out positive and the trader thinks this is the way it should go and the BIG money pulls the rug out from under your feet. In analysis today if you take a chart of USD and OIL and use standard pivots you will see on OIL it is dropping off of WR1 and MR1 what is occurring here is a reversals off of Monthly pivots. The USD also just went from MR1 to just below MS1 in the last few days and has swung back up. Always good to take a step back and look at the daily charts and mark your important zones and see where they line up with the weekly FIB levels that Davits Pivots provide.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
7
  • Post #31,889
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2019 2:08pm Sep 11, 2019 2:08pm
  •  bubincka
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: You are what you is | 1,781 Posts | Online Now
A wrong setting on my trade manager caused the early close of my UC long trade.

Setup was taken following Cryptosurf low hanging fruit, however I made a good profit.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
10
  • Post #31,890
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2019 8:41am Sep 12, 2019 8:41am
  •  Cryptosurf
  • Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 885 Posts
Carry trade in effect across all yen pairs.

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Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
8
  • Post #31,891
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2019 8:42am Sep 12, 2019 8:42am
  •  Renkomaster
  • Joined Jun 2018 | Status: Busy Making Money | 48 Posts
Get this 100 pips from ECB
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6
  • Post #31,892
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2019 8:58am Sep 12, 2019 8:58am
  •  ranilo.vince
  • Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Gaining Pips Only | 514 Posts
Quoting Cryptosurf
Disliked
Carry trade in effect across all yen pairs. {image} {image}
Ignored
Nice catch on Gold bro!

I wonder what would be your exit here? Coz I also have same trade...
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Will you base it on Weekly chart or just plain R38 will do?
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
3
  • Post #31,893
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2019 9:29am Sep 12, 2019 9:29am
  •  Cryptosurf
  • Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 885 Posts
Quoting ranilo.vince
Disliked
{quote} Nice catch on Gold bro! I wonder what would be your exit here? Coz I also have same trade... {image} Will you base it on Weekly chart or just plain R38 will do?
Ignored
My TP was weekly pivot so im out already. Gold has been on a ripper but that may be over. Weekly candles look weak, daily's are forming a possible H&S.

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Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
8
  • Post #31,894
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:47pm Sep 12, 2019 2:16pm | Edited at 3:47pm
  •  Swede
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 484 Posts
Not much on the horizon to move NZD but looking at the weekly and daily there is lots of room south...guess we will see....the one thing that bothers me is the fact "TIME = RISK" I may close this during Asia..we will see.

On the other hand GBP once again delivered all week long....that R38 level held and held and held, with nothing in the way of news to move it north...until this morning of course....will hold off on any more shorts until today's news is digested ....but I would not be surprized to see more downward on GBP in the days ahead....
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  • Post #31,895
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:56am Sep 13, 2019 12:02am | Edited at 8:56am
  •  Romanov102
  • Joined May 2018 | Status: Member | 288 Posts
Quoting Swede
Disliked
Not much on the horizon to move NZD but looking at the weekly and daily there is lots of room south...guess we will see....the one thing that bothers me is the fact "TIME = RISK" I may close this during Asia..we will see. On the other hand GBP once again delivered all week long....that R38 level held and held and held, with nothing in the way of news to move it north...until this morning of course....will hold off on any more shorts until today's news is digested ....but I would not be surprized to see more downward on GBP in the days ahead.......
Ignored
RED flag USD @ 8:30 tomorrow morning 1.9 billion worth of options expiring on GU at the NY cut tomorrow @10 am.
UPDATE: Just saying these options couldn't have had anything to do with PA overnight on the London session. It's coincidental, nothing to see here folks move along. Looking to see if any reversal opportunity arises after 10 am.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
1
  • Post #31,896
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2019 12:08am Sep 13, 2019 12:08am
  •  Romanov102
  • Joined May 2018 | Status: Member | 288 Posts
EG H4 Bat
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
3
  • Post #31,897
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2019 2:55am Sep 13, 2019 2:55am
  •  bubincka
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: You are what you is | 1,781 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Swede
Disliked
Not much on the horizon to move NZD but looking at the weekly and daily there is lots of room south...guess we will see....the one thing that bothers me is the fact "TIME = RISK" I may close this during Asia..we will see. {image} {image}
Ignored
Hi Swede,

I'm on the same trade, the fact is USD not strong at all while GBP and EUR are rocking.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
6
  • Post #31,898
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2019 6:49am Sep 13, 2019 6:49am
  •  bubincka
  • Joined Nov 2009 | Status: You are what you is | 1,781 Posts | Online Now
During my lunch break I saw trade manager closed my NU short on trailing stop, TP was some pips below, probably at reach.

It can be bad or in this tweet driven market could also be good and later red news on dollar.
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
6
  • Post #31,899
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2019 9:12am Sep 13, 2019 9:12am
  •  Swede
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 484 Posts
I was fortunate Bubinka to reach pivot....thanks to a little news on USD that was less than stellar. Gave up a few more little scalps on GBP to finish the morning well in the Green...

But overall, as Cryptosurf has pointed out, we are wise to take profit at the next level when a change in direction overall has occurred, Look at last weeks big momentum candle for NZP...and look at the last few days activity...there is a good chance NZP could move upward so best to bank what we can and move on....my take profits all hit at weekly pivot and that takes the decision away from me...and Im happy with that...
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  • Post #31,900
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:31am Sep 13, 2019 9:48am | Edited at 10:31am
  •  Swede
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 484 Posts
My favorite trade is Cable without a doubt....but if this is filled I will use stops, which I normally do not do....just because of the volatility in this beast and of course who knows what news event will come on the wire regarding Brexit or Johonson or whatever...one thing to note is how it is reacting at the yearly pivot...I know, I know..we do not trade yearly pivots, we trade weekly, but even weekly is up at R100 with momentum fading..ADR in red...and so on... ANYWAY, have to run so everyone have a good weekend...keep green!!
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