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Why do indicators not work/work? Why is Forex not truly random? 119 replies

MTS Vs Random Entry - A Paradox 6 replies

Is random really random? 230 replies

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 15 replies

Attachments: Proof That Forex is Random video
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Proof That Forex is Random video

  • Post #161
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:17am Nov 20, 2017 8:04am | Edited at 10:17am
Quoting Zemanel
{quote} Best Post of the Year ! I still think you are all confusing RANDOMNESS and PREVISIBILITY . Markets move in a logic order of supply and demand BUT are not predictable . That is a fact !

Agreed.

I'm not saying you can't make money from forex. But.........

If it was predictable. Why are there forex signals service around ? Why do these forex systems are being sold ? Why are there trading rooms like the legend James from this forum around ? Why sell a EA or magic indicators if they worked ? You don't have to be smart to work this out.


All to get your money. Just like retail bucket brokers. If they could make the money they claim. They would not be selling.

This is a example of what i'm talking about. Its crime.

http://www.richlazytrader.com/
  • Post #162
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:12am Nov 23, 2017 3:46am | Edited at 4:12am
[quote=hanover;10522355]
Will I be publicly sharing the indicator that produced the histograms? Maybe at some future point,

Free BTTF ?

https://backtothefuturetrading.com/c...ding-insights/
  • Post #163
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:39am Nov 23, 2017 8:12am | Edited at 8:39am
Random not random....

The point is that these markets are not predictable,with trading costs the house has the edge.

I live from trading. Pays my bills and love for woman.

Maybe one of the few here.

I'm the worst market timer ever. Its does not matter to me. I buy stocks that have a good future. Price goes up down does not matter. But with skill you know that asset will increase in value in time.. I dont know when and dont care,but hope it does.I get a salary from my stocks.

Is the asset i'm buying a good investment ? I not looking to predict what happens in the next hour or five mins like many here. This is impossible

Its like watching a very close sport match both teams equal quality , impossible to predict what will happen in the next 5 mins.

But you got lots of traders here making big claims. Like 3 percent per day for several years. Day trading. I think these are brokers who pretend to be traders for an agenda. I just don't think normal people can be this sick to lie like this for several years. If anyone wants these threads of these claims, PM me.

This is why people are losing here. It's the same as a casino. Jim rogers has said this about retail forex. Im sure you know who he was.

What is interesting if you look at the stats at a casino. Guess what? almost the same as forex. in 2017 uk casinos the stats is 99.3 percent of customers lose.
almost the same stat as forex brokers. Please think about these numbers.

Hanover your a great guy,but your semi retired and a programer. You don't make your living from forex. Your a smart guy. You know the truth seep inside.
Hello AO,

I was looking at your chart photos and wondering if you have the dynamic fibonacci chart level indicators you could share for MT4 as well. Love your grid system and would love the accompanying dynamic fibs charts with it as well...
Quoting goose4
Good posts guys. I agree with you all. He points out on the random charts you see support and resistance just like real charts,that traders look for. Elliot wave too. Its the same as real markets. A pro trader would not know the difference.He proves.A trader will want to believe what he wants to see. Here is a comment from the video. I traded over ten years. I had periods where I did quite well, but overall lost. I tried everything. I agree with your assessment 100%. Along the way I remember Al Greenspan say that predicting currency prices was impossible?...

It would appear that giving up in forex would be the best bet huh?
  • Post #166
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:02am Jan 27, 2018 7:35am | Edited at 8:02am
Quoting Harp
{quote} It would appear that giving up in forex would be the best bet huh?

So what’s the problem with forex?


In forex efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”. In consequence of this, one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information available at the time the investment is made.*
In simple terms, applied to betting markets, this means that the market has taken account of all the information available prior to an event and that the price attached to a particular outcome is reflective of all that information.

There is always the exception to the rule harp. You must leave some error in what anything you believe in. I can't advise what people do.If people do well good for them.
The trading costs and the random nature of the forex markets are hard to beat long term. I have given up on forex and trade betfair and invest long term in assets.
Quoting goose4
{quote} So what’s the problem with forex? In forex efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”. In consequence of this, one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information available at the time the investment is made.* In simple terms, applied to betting markets, this means that the market has taken account of all the information available prior to an event and that the price attached to a particular outcome is reflective...
I have seen many post where trader refer to being profitable in the kong term but wouldn't or shouldn't one focus on short term gains first.
Quoting goose4
{quote} So what’s the problem with forex? In forex efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”. In consequence of this, one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information available at the time the investment is made.* In simple terms, applied to betting markets, this means that the market has taken account of all the information available prior to an event and that the price attached to a particular outcome is reflective...
This is not related to FX only but also to the stock markets, which you apparently make a living from?

But please post the source of your quote, especially the "In Forex" part
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
Quoting michisuperfr
{quote} This is not related to FX only but also to the stock markets, which you apparently make a living from? But please post the source of your quote, especially the "In Forex" part

I don't earn a living trading stocks and profiting in that sense

I buy and hold good companies and earn dividends from them, that I use as my salary to live,I also have a few properties that I rent out. These are assets.

Thank You for the correction you made. My mistake.
5 Big Banks trade 50% of the forex volume, (you can Google the exact number), unlike you and me,they can "see" all the orders on the table. They can and do,move the market with their massive pockets to scalp retailers out,in the form of stop loss running, and inducing fake moves. Day in, day out.
Ask those guys if forex is random!

At a minimum, their "intervention" should "tilt" away the "random balance".
Quoting cuchuflito
5 Big Banks trade 50% of the forex volume, (you can Google the exact number), unlike you and me,they can see all the orders on the table. They can and do,move the market with their massive pockets to scalp retailers in the form of stop loss running, and inducing fake moves. Day in, day out. Ask those guys if forex is random! At a minimum, their "intervention" should tilt away the "random balance".

This is correct.

So for the a retail trader. Price action is random.

No indicator or technicals can predict those fake moves the banks do dailys. Add slippage and trading costs the house has the edge.
Quoting goose4
{quote} This is correct. So for the a retail trader. Price action is random. No indicator or technicals can predict those fake moves the banks do dailys. Add slippage and trading costs the house has the edge.
Yes and no
stop runs are easy to spot.

Markets are predictable, then random, then predictable again.
The fluctuation between both, is again: random and then predictable.
The challenge is to: predict the market correctly (when predictable), and make the most $ out of it.
And, when in a random phase, loose the least amount (MM).

And like you say, add slippage , trading costs, and top it with stupid mistakes...BINGO, you end up with a very, very difficult business, where most loose their shirts.
Let me start by saying what has been said multiple times already in this wonderful site "It is not random."

But for the non believers : Random or not random, the profitable trader will always find a way to make money while the non profitable will do all he/she can to lose. The profitable trader knows that the market is constantly changing so he/she will have to adapt their trading style to what is seen at that particular time.
By simply doing what works over and over again you are dismissing random out of your trading.
Quoting goose4
Random not random.... The point is that these markets are not predictable,with trading costs the house has the edge.
whatever you choose to believe, perspective is everything and such a powerful tool. And if you have decided to be debby the downer I can't help you at all. If you were so sure about the impossibility of making a living out of day trading why even bother posting and checking out threads ? discouraging people from trying it out is the most harmful thing one can ever do just because you haven't made it yourself. I'm not a consistent trader by any measure and yes it is extremely difficult to make a living let alone making thousands and millions but of course as with everything in life anything is possible but can you do it ? that's the million dollar question and no one can give you an accurate answer for that but yourself.
Learn to follow and not think.
Quoting Piquant
{quote} whatever you choose to believe, perspective is everything and such a powerful tool. And if you have decided to be debby the downer I can't help you at all. If you were so sure about the impossibility of making a living out of day trading why even bother posting and checking out threads ? discouraging people from trying it out is the most harmful thing one can ever do just because you haven't made it yourself. I'm not a consistent trader by any measure and yes it is extremely difficult to make a living let alone making thousands and millions...
Well yes and no, cause the point of the thread is to find proof of, randomness or predictability in Forex trading....

For example, it is proven that lottery is a loosing game, even if you winn the big pot 10 times, and keep on playing endlessly, you will loose it all.
That is pure math, and also the reason why, in most countries, the lottery is owned by the state...cause they know they can ripp off dummies... easily...
Interesting thread, In my opinion there is a subtle difference between 'random walk' charts and forex,stock,indices charts.if you observe carefully you will see some unusual patterns and spikes in forex,stock and indices charts.where as in random walk its different you wont see huge spikes and strange movements there.this proves that markets are not 100 percent efficient.Markets are chaotic.Time is more important than price,when time is up market will change its direction,not after and not before that time. as Wd gann stated this in many of his books.

Now here is another thing if you carefully look at random walks charts than you will still find a pattern in that.not in the sense which you would have imagined but in a completely different way.You could predict the random walks using butterfly effect if you knew the initial conditions of the whole process.Now here is the thing if you see a psuedo random number generator and check the numbers that it produces than they look completely random.isnt it? but its not random because it has a seed.If you knew the seed than you could predict each and every single number and sequences.So thats what Wd gann told in his mysterious lauguage if you knew the correct starting point of the stock,commodity or forex cycle than you could predict the future cycles.

It has been demonstrated that a random process generates order.
watch this video
Inserted Video
No one ever Discovered anything new by colouring inside the lines.
Quoting KarlKraus
{quote} Michael Shermer has written books that explain why. (I wouldn't.)
May I get the link please (if available)? I am really interested to read this book! Thanks in advance.
How could price movement be random if it is mainly pure reaction to buying and selling orders?
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
Quoting Hdhorda4
Interesting thread, In my opinion there is a subtle difference between 'random walk' charts and forex,stock,indices charts.if you observe carefully you will see some unusual patterns and spikes in forex,stock and indices charts.where as in random walk its different you wont see huge spikes and strange movements there.this proves that markets are not 100 percent efficient.Markets are chaotic.Time is more important than price,when time is up market will change its direction,not after and not before that time. as Wd gann stated this in many of his...
Thanks for sharing the video. Great stuff. Fascinating.
Model 2 All Time Pips: -915
Quoting AlastorFate
How could price movement be random if it is mainly pure reaction to buying and selling orders?
You are right in that sense because markets reacts to predictions.
Its because its a Level Two Chaos System just like politics.
Weather is a first level chaotic system which typically does not react to predictions.
No one ever Discovered anything new by colouring inside the lines.
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