DislikedMoves are made on creating beliefs, which to me means the more you are convinced the market is trending up..the more in my mind it means the banks / market makers are getting ready to drop it the other direction and capture some money. I have the feeling its going to be a big gap down by the market open, due to the convincing bullish action friday. But well I dont trade like this anymore...its fun to do story telling with trading.Ignored
I am genuinely puzzled at what happened at the end of the day today with the Euro. That's why I'm here, reading. : I was expecting caution in holding long euro positions and it didn't manifest in any significant way particularly with the commodity currency euro pairs. Maybe there was profit taking which had some effect with Eur Jpy but in the commodity currency euro pairs: no restraint at all - just higher and higher. That kind of trader just is not me- no restraint into event risk. I almost couldn't believe what I was seeing but there it was. I'd prefer to sell Eur Usd for example, from higher levels.
Today, though, I am experimenting with a little sell trade in Eur Usd. I want to learn from what happens to it when the market opens on Sunday. I'd rather be involved than on the sidelines. I'd rather try that with Eur USD than any of the now higher than ever Eur Nzd or Eur Cad or probably Eur Aud.
Maybe it is true what I read somewhere today that the commodity currencies are going to be weaker going forward in the opinion of the analyst because emerging markets hold more appeal. This, as you wrote, is just another example of story. Story has been detrimental to my trading but I believe fundamentals esp interest rates and bond prices are critically important to add to technical levels. I keep trying to recommend actionforex. They entirely rely on technical in their Weekly analyses. Their levels have panned out much more often than not - the more far out in time, the better the entry of course. But anyone who trades fx would do well to check them daily as they provide mid-day updates.