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- 324 Results (315 Replies, 9 Comments)
- tomorton replied Feb 20, 2023
If trend-following is dead, perhaps I need to give back the money made over the last 6 months from going short on the GBP/USD, and long on AUD/USD, USD/JPY and SGD/JPY. Right now I'm in cash obviously - if you like, I'm consolidating, because that's ...
- tomorton replied Feb 11, 2023
Its good you have a reliable methodology but this all sounds very vague. Maybe you want to say more about whatever it is you're doing, right now I have different ideas about what you might be doing, some clarity would be appreciated. Thanks.
- tomorton replied Feb 10, 2023
TheDaxMan was right, trading is very simple, both to understand and to do. So the problem we have to solve is how to trade profitably. You need a strategy, and there are only two strategies - buy because price has been rising, or buy because price ...
- tomorton replied Jun 16, 2022
Absolutely right. The big international banks do not lose money trading forex. So the lesson is, what are they doing that we can do? The answer is found in the price, because whatever they do is seen in price movements they are so big, they cannot ...
- tomorton replied Jun 10, 2022
Your perseverance is to be admired. As I said, as soon as my backtesting shows a strategy has a win rate less than 50% I drop that idea.
- tomorton replied Jun 9, 2022
I admit that its so damaging that unless a strategy has given me more than a 50% win rate during back-testing or demo trading I have always dumped it. No matter how good the r:r I just won't put effort into something with mostly losers. Even if ...
- tomorton replied Jun 9, 2022
The smart money is what the big banks use. They make the price rise or fall. We can all see this, they can't hide what they're doing. Let's also recognise that if there is such a thing as smart money, then there must be such a thing as dumb money. ...
- tomorton replied Jun 9, 2022
Most new traders are day traders. They are generally driven by fear. Therefore they are too afraid to stay in the market overnight let alone over the weekend. Generally - They trade off shorter and shorter time-frames so they are less and less ...
- tomorton replied Jun 9, 2022
You can't decide how much the market will give you. You can only decide how much you will take. Look at your entry set-up. I will probably have several TA features. My advice is that once you're in the trade, look for any one of those features ...
- tomorton replied Jun 9, 2022
A losing trade is just an overhead. Unless a trader is running a strategy with a 100% win rate, they have guaranteed that they will have some losing trades when they implemented the strategy. Better to take the small losses that are outweighed by ...
- tomorton replied May 31, 2020
Very few traders carry out real pyramiding, though pyramiding with strict capital risk is a legitimate tactic to increase total returns. But as I think you point out, it damages your profits and win rate and r:r - you initially spend time enlarging ...
- tomorton replied May 22, 2020
Spreads don't normally show on charts, they are usually painted using only the bid price. In addition, brokers will tell you (probably in their T&C) that the chart and the quotes displayed alongside are purely indicative and are not binding ...
- tomorton replied May 21, 2020
I'm surmising that when you had the platform disconnect, there were technical issues at the brokers's screens too. In such a circumstance when they can't accurately see what's going on, I suppose an emergency (and maybe automatic) increase in ...
- tomorton replied May 18, 2020
Be very cautious trading these patterns. True engulfing candlestick patterns are almost unknown in forex as there is usually no major difference between one candle's close and the other's open, so overlap is rare and not meaningful. Also Thomas ...
- tomorton replied May 17, 2020
True, grid systems and trend-following are not compatible. You're possibly right about trends being in place only for a minority of the time. But its not a relevant criticism of trend-following. A trend is just a chart pattern: for a single chart ...
- tomorton replied May 12, 2020
Never heard of a trade explorer. I never post full details of trades I'm in or have been in and never offer up any financial details. But I always post details of strategies I am using or trialling. Anybody experienced looking over those would be ...
- tomorton replied May 12, 2020
The big banks make the price of a currency go up when they buy it and down when they sell it. Supply and demand, cause and effect. The bg banks might want currency to go a certain way but that will be part of the competition they run all the time ...
- tomorton replied May 8, 2020
Prices in the underlying forex markets are driven purely by the big players - the big banks. Private retail traders are too small and have an insignificant aggregate amount of capital to move the forex markets. The psychology involved in the big ...
- tomorton replied May 7, 2020
What sort of proof would be accepted?
- tomorton replied May 7, 2020
Just because something is hard to understand and predict does not mean its random. The markets show elements of both deliberate and random behaviour. Just because some behaviour is deliberate, it does not mean there is a unique intelligence behind ...