They may wait until September, following the release of the quarterly inflation report in August.

The MPC voted 5-3 to hold rates; unexpectedly more hawkish. Personally, I think an increase to interest rates done for the purposes of keeping a lid on inflation would be a mistake, given how weak and tepid wage and economic growth are. Most of ...

Focus groups told Conservatives that Theresa May was perceived as their biggest strength (strong, stable, capable etc). Many traditional Labour voters, some of whom are quite tribal by nature, didn't feel comfortable supporting the Tories but felt ...

Back in April, Theresa May had a 20 point lead over Labour in some polls. In a purely self-serving way, it made sense for her to capitalise on this lead and secure a 5-year term with a much bigger majority. Going forward, though, it will be a shock ...

Firstly, I think you make some salient points regarding the risks to the fragile recoveries of some countries (those with over-indebted private sectors) of the Eurozone to increased borrowing costs. And you are right in positing that the ECB will be ...

That is so far from being a credible source on macroeconomics. I had a brief look at the article and found a quite a few thought of his that betrayed an ignorance of the monetary system and central bank operations.

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You trade currencies with floating exchange rates purely for speculative purposes, right? This is surely the most economically liberal, free-market, globalised, individualistic, capitalistic past-time there is - it epitomises, for many (not me), the ...

It should be an easy walk in the park for May, with Labour 21 points behind in the polls - otherwise she wouldn't take such a gamble. She will need to get parliament approval for this proposed date, given the restrictions of the Fixed-terms ...

Wow. election announced for 8th Jun This will have to be voted on in Parliament, given the backdrop of the Fixed-terms Parliament Act. May will need a 2/3rds majority (i think), which she will likely get, as Labour, under Corbyn, have previously ...

A prominent Conservative peer and a very in-the-know journalist, Daniel Finkelstein, has come out saying there won't be an election announced. The ill health rumour seems far fetched (I actually saw Theresa May at a very low key event in her ...

All sorts of rumours circulating (snap election, resignation due to ill health, direct rule for Northern Ireland,,,), due to the unusual nature of announcing an unscheduled news conference.

There is some disparity with the GDP Q1 growth forecast by the Atlanta Fed and other leading forecasters, such as New York Fed - which predicts 2.2% for Q1 growth. According to CNBC, the median GDP forecast for Q1 stands at 1.5%. The market is ...

There is great scope for a strong mid-term turnaround in EURUSD. Fed Funds Futures are now implying a 77% chance of a March rate hike - making it a done deal. in the view of the market. In reflecting this recent change of sentiment, 2-year Treasury ...

That is a thoughtful piece by Bernanke - thank you for posting the link. He makes some wise comments, I think, particularly that there is little evidence the current size of the Fed's balance sheet poses any real problems to the economy or market ...

C'ètait très intéressant. Merci et bonne journeè.

Another set of solid economic data for the Eurozone is being offset by political risk, following yesterday's poll showing a slight drop in the support for Macron (perhaps losing some of his earlier momentum), now level with Fillon, and a slight ...

As expected following the weak earnings, Treasury 2-year yields dipped from 1.22% to 1.17%, before paring some of the intraday losses to close at 1.19 - the recovery seen after Fed's Williams (President of San Francisco Fed) made comments endorsing ...

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risk positive data. weak wage growth of 0.1% m/m (plus downward revision of previous month), which should slightly subdue Fed tightening expectations (push down on short-end yields), and a strong headline number of +227k (against 170k exp). This ...