Inflation is already too high and it will be goosed by Tariffs, Tax Cuts, too much governmental spending and borrowing and with debt being too cheap in real terms (Relative to historical rates). Trump will lean on the FED (He thinks he should have a ...

People will never see what the stats are showing IF they come at the them with preconceived ideas, prejudices or an agenda. The art of approaching data with a completely open mind and no bias is in the minority. Unfortunately the number of sharp, ...

Eh? "current currency strength stoking up inflation"? Are you in Erdogan's Economic Advisory team? In classical economic theory, a stronger currency reduces the price of goods and services. It's an inverse correlation. The UK imports an awful lot of ...

All good reasoning there too, I'd say. Perhaps I need to make it clear that I wasn't inferring you to be a lemming/sheep but that the market as a whole tends to behave like that. You're doing the right thing by looking for contrarian indicators in ...

You make a well-reasoned, evidenced hypothetical Q. My answer will be equally as 'meaningless' as your opinion, but here goes . . . . "sheep" or "lemmings', sometimes called a more professionally-sounding term of "market sentiment"?

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Y-on-Y rather than M-on-M but the principle is the same.

Hold your horses, there. It's not actually comparing like with like. Take a look at the OBR detail and you should note that they have changed the data parameters, which means that it's classed as "Under Development" for 6 months. The Unemployment % ...

I suspect that that the rotten weather played a part. I wonder how much seasonal inventory will end up being discounted before too long.

"Contained" does not mean "reducing". His last public vomit was interpreted as being dovish, so this is seen as being a bit of a reassessment. The net effect is being interpreted by market-makers as the odds for rates remaining restrictive for ...

Quite. Agreed. I was thinking I'd missed something in logic when reading the 'News'. Spending Yen to strengthen Yen, seemed to me a contradiction. Buying Yen is the only way Yen would strengthen, so, spending Yen to buy Yen had logically to mean a ...

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"The global economy is complex." "While cheap Chinese exports can disrupt some markets, they also provide affordable goods to consumers worldwide." "People need these cheap products to meet their basic needs and ...

If there are rogues doing as you say, then they'll be doing that at all times. They won't need a US presidential Election as an excuse.

Yes, agreed, of all colours and persuasions.

Indeed.

Oh, yes, I agree about the free money but that's what caused the unlimited demand.

I understand your point implicitly and there is a wider desire to coin a phrase for particular scenarios but I'd argue that when inflation has been high, for inflation to recede you're always going to need the front-edge data-plots, such as retail ...

, yes, that's always a popular fall-back theory, but that's even more reason for them to be muzzled in between the votes/conferences. Anyway, I've aired my view that it's a nonsense to create a framework for control and then ...

Yes, thanks but don't get me wrong, I understand fully that: 1) ALL changes in stance is news, that all news can happen at anytime and anywhere, both as a controlled release and at the other extreme, a black swan moment. 2) That FF will not know ...