It still takes 1 year to get the rates down to neutral rate. They won't cut more than 50 basis points and it is actually very, very restrictive currently. So even another 100 bps cut over the next 2 meetings is above neutral rate. So it will take ...

Go for another 50 BPS rate cut then on next meeting. Inflation is already very near the target.

Retailer is not important at all, it less than 7% of total volume. And market does price in only one side of 25 bps cut with no further guidance of more cuts. Way too pessimistic. There will be new info for sure on FED press conference. Watch out.

Also the Nasdaq did not move upside last couple of days. Very pessimistic that market here is. Not normal.

You can see this best at the EURUSD prices, markets are deeply pessimistic that a hawkish 25 bps cut is coming only. But that won't be for sure, is my opinion. It will be a normal 50 bps cut or a very dovish 25 bps cut with lots of fantasy of more ...

It seems like majority is thinking a 50 bps is the right choice but the FED being lame will do only 25 bps cut, they think, that is priced in and not a 50 bps cut is priced in. Huge upside from here, I see.

What i see on prices, that markets are pessimistic thinking of only 25 bps cut today. But then after shortly there should be upcoming fantasy about more cuts coming in the next months. So markets at all are way too pessimistic from my perspective.

The only good thing about a 25 bps cut is the remaining fantasy of more cuts coming.

If the FED does not want everyone else saying: Too late too little. They need to cut 50 bps now. Everything lower will force a recession much more likely. Second step needs to be another 50 bps too.

Good job from ECB. Now the FED needs to cut 50 basis points two times in a row starting next week.

The reaction comes now. I am pretty sure. USD is overbought. It is still holidays for many. FX is zigzag market anyway.

Dovish of course, rates are going down. SPX should make a new all-time-high. Should be ready now in the next days.

Yeah, they are always late, sometimes even more. They need to justify themselves until everyone sees it in their committee and their background anal(c)ysts.

Goldman Sachs has much better forecasts for the US economy than the market has priced in. A soft landing together with many rate cuts into 2025 should let the SPX go to 7000 in 2025 I am expecting.

US Dollar long recently must be from commercials or others. Not hedge funds as it does not make sense. Not the jump on interest rates is over today and Oil is also up, so the SPX should be bought to day and USD again sold.

Those 6 cuts are not a problem if you count the first half of 2025 too. Then is 100% sure. Only the time could be little bit extended. That is all.

The CFTC win rate at courts is around 90%. So not good odds for MFF to come out with a blue eye only.

Oh no, they owe me $10k in payouts still.