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- AntiCre replied Sep 18, 2024
Dear Fiox89, I haven't really tested it but it sounds good to me. Personally, I indeed think this is where an edge can be found. And you can see this edge even in another post. In the image of the 2nd row, the one with green dots, you can find that ...
- AntiCre replied Sep 4, 2024
Dear Fiox89, this as been just an attempt to explain why that person wrote that the probability differs from 50 % (for going back to the MA, or away). It's not been any recommendation for trading. I even believe this scenario may be hard to trade ...
- AntiCre replied Jul 28, 2024
Yes, I agree. When I read the post of CP the first time in context with his other posts I also perceived it in the way you did: Fast price changes/high momentum causes further price changes in the same direction (somewhat like a landslide). But if ...
- AntiCre replied Jul 25, 2024
It also triggered me when I read this the first time. However, the more often I read it, the more my perspective changed. Here is what Craig wrote: "We are looking at a stationary Gaussian random walk. When it gets away more than 2 standard ...
- AntiCre replied Jul 15, 2024
Not implying anything. I just like to make you (others) awars that price doesn't move in "sine waves". People sticking to the sine wave pov believe that price moves fastest during the mid of trends, and slow towards the start and end of trends. ...
- AntiCre replied Jul 14, 2024
Did you ever consider that price doesn't move in sine waves? It's more like this if you average (and noramlize) over trends of equal lengths: image And when looking at different average trends, you'll even see a "constant": image
- AntiCre replied Jan 24, 2024
Dear treigaini, sorry for the late reply. I think apprendista already gave a good explanation and I agree. Nevertheless, I still think these differences could also be used to tell you something about the market itself. I think it was strongtrader ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
In post #69 I recommended to use 1000-tick candles on a rolling tick base. However, for some reason I've used 1040-tick candles from 2018 GU. Nevertheless, the general findings will be the same. Bye
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
Well, maybe you're right. I cannot deny it. But I've already seen some potential in these stats and made some profits (of course not multiple years, but it's a first step to me). Just to repeat this: It's not about beating in the sense of making a ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
Thanks apprendista, since I know which argument will come next, I'll give something away from what I've done. Only a little for the crowd ... This is what I've done and what I've asked for in post #69. First: How do AVERAGE bullish candlesticks look ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
Well, that's fine and I thank you for your thoughts!
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
Yeah, maybe. Or you don't see it because I haven't talked about it. So, what's the difference between your and this post (content-wise)? Nothing, I guess. So, let's start again and rephrase it: "Hey Anti, well, I was on the same track like you years ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
I'll stick to Einstein who said "Any fool can know. The point is to understand." Yes, the key imo lies in managing. But in a world with inifinite complexity, how do you know how do manage? You need to identify patterns. At least that's what I'm on ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
Just a brief reply since I'm busy right now with other stuff ... a. I've done data on random walks and on EU and GU tick data. The average candlesticks perform similar, i.e. the wick-to-range and body-to-range ratios as well as the frequencies of ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 8, 2024
Dear Fiox89, thanks a lot for your input! Yes, had the same idea. However, (and I hope I won't disappoint you) the brutal truth is that regardless of your entry criteria, you'll always encounter a 50/50 chance to get a target or take a loss first if ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 6, 2024
That's not the point - and you know it. And no, I haven't asked for help to create something. Point me to that post! I already have the stats and was going to discuss it. That's why this thread is in the discussion section.
- AntiCre replied Jan 6, 2024
That's what I planned to talk about if anybody could get that stats. The idea is not to use past performance to predict next occurences, but to use it to measure where price is right now (in relation to these reference points). Yes, price moves ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 6, 2024
As apprendista pointed out, I haven't mentioned candlestick patterns at all. And I was talking about 1000 ticks, i.e. the 1st candlestick is from now 999 ticks back. Then another tick comes in and I repeat that process. Why am I doing this? I'm ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 6, 2024
Thanks for sharing. It's a pity that you don't make comments anymore. If nobody would make comments, it would be very silent and no new ideas would pop up. Discussing and having different arguments is ok as long as everybody defend their arguments ...
- AntiCre replied Jan 6, 2024
I agree again. You don't know how many "price changes" you had during the lifetime of a candlestick at just looking at price (well, you could use tick volume). However, to be consistent, I suggested in #post 69 to use 1000 price changes (ticks in ...