Never underestimate the power of btfd. Even the pandemic dip was bought back in a few weeks. With all CBs backstopping any possible negative market impacts, even WWIII would be bought. It would probably take a direct asteroid strike on Wall Street.

There's a lot of different ways to spin the "it's the elections" theory. I'd guess the incumbent regime would be lobbying IDF to wait until after the election to start the shoosting. Perhaps you could surmise the IDF itself will want to go sooner, ...

Meanwhile, Brent down >2%.....

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Yes, I'm waiting. Rolling put spreads again tomorrow. If you can't get a pullback in October of an election year, though, then idkwtf....

There is no conspiracy to inflate stocks pre-election. Nobody has the kind of equity with which to game the market in this way, and, even if they did, they would be variously opposed by all the other gamers who'd like to try. It's an efficient ...

Yes, yes, it's clear to me also. 3%. I feel it. Or 4%? If that's what ya'll like? We can say 4% if that's better. But definitely not 2%. Right? The data. The data says 3%. We must listen to the data. 3%. Or 4. Jerry likes 2%, I know. But he's a ...

Theatrics. The nuclear nation-states do not want to be at war with each other. So, if they hate each other, they will settle for symbolism. Iran shoots 200 ballistic missiles into Israel and one person is killed? Please. (And, of course, they let ...

right, the Goldilocks scenario for the Powell soft landing. The markets continue rolling up to new ath's, employment is still strong, inflation is going down, rates are going down, etc etc. Only an October surprise could spoil it.

Goldilocks.

Easy, just take my crystal ball reading class, only $99.99. Crystal ball sold separately, also $99.99.

Dovish Fed and an in-line PCE Friday makes way for Goldilocks into Q4. Could be a gift for contrarians waiting on the October volatility to arrive.

Inflation is not just contained, it is down. The price of most things is down from a year ago. The stickiest problem that most everyone has with inflation is re: housing, and lowering interest rates should help with that, in time. Meanwhile, the US ...

Why was 5.25% warranted? CPI at 2.5% in Aug '24 is back down to near pre-pandemic levels.

WAIT FOR IT

I think the market has set itself up for a pullback. Now sitting a hair away from new ath, there's too much optimism about the trajectory of Fed cuts. This could show up as 25 bps, not 50 bps, but will more likely come out in the dot plot.

IKR? Now, it's shaping up that the market will crash if they don't go 50. Fine with me, just means we could see more big moves Wed-Thurs. The 25bps cut was priced in for so long, it seemed like this fomc was going to be a snoozer. Now, maybe not.

I'm with you on that to a degree. My gut is that any rally off the fomc will be short-lived, maybe to the end of the quarter and no more, and then we will see seasonality and elections angst and other macro influences take hold for an October slide. ...

the crescendo is in liquidity & it's still growing. Trillions of $ sitting out at 5.25% in mm funds and short term notes and those are going to roll over, en masse, over the next year. Into what? Remember TINA?