Its been pointed out a million times before, but its worth making again. The reverse of a random system, is still a random system (try reversing any of the systems that crash and burn with alarming regularity and see how far you get) Of course once ...

A fairly successful UK pension fund manager once told me he took buy and sell decisions purely based on the color of traffic lights he observed on his way to work in the morning. If lights were predominantly green, he bought, if lights were ...

A few observations You claim that you arent looking for a holy grail, however, have you done any kind of research into figuring out the magnitude of returns you might expect from a 50% strike rate with 1:2 ratio ? If not find yourself a simulator, ...

To respond to a previous comment about my last post, personally I dont see ANT distinction between "gambling" and "trading" other than that most successful professional "gamblers" are a bit more clued up, and psychologically stronger than the few ...

I'd go as far as to say that its almost impossible to figure this stuff out without some serious research into the possibility that financial markets are random (which they most certainly are most of the time), and the implications that has on ...

I have to agree, these reports are worse than useless for the reasons that you point out. At the time that these quarterly NFA reports were originally released, a group of us did a little experiment that lasted just over 2 years. We traded a bunch ...

10 years or so ago I used to fade calls made in a popular trading forum chatroom, even 5 or 6 years ago there was money to be made fading calls made in woodies cci chat room... It shouldnt work really because most of the trading decisions being made ...

if you look in a business directory, you can find web developers advertising their services. I used to own such a company, and if you visited my offices you could see dozens of guys earning a living doing just that. You could find 20 other similar ...

2 years ago an aquaintance of mine lost 11% of the fund he manages. His worst ever year in a 20+ year career. He still earned significantly more in that losing year than you'll earn if you manage to compound 100 bucks at 30% per month over 4 years. ...

A few years ago I was introduced to a US trader. I'd just had my most successful year ever, he'd just LOST 11% for the year He still made 60 times more than I did for the year, and that was after paying fairly considerable operating costs, and ...

Impossible to answer one thing is for sure, your optimum stop level is going to be a function of your skill level. To give a simplified example, think about it in the same way you might think about what strategy you might use if playing a game of ...

To be frank, you'd expect exactly that figure if a group of chimpanzees where trading. It's completely meaningless. The following article explains why in fairly basic terms. url

Yes No (other than by good luck over the short term)

groundhog day

To put things in perspective, I'm an intraday trader, and probably 99% of my trades last less than 2.5 hours. I wouldnt dream of accounting for PnL on a day by day basis, its complete insanity. I track PnL by month, but even thats far too short a ...

As their subsequent performance shows, they where on a lucky streak Thats the point that Naseem Talab makes in his book, fooled by randomness. There are times when particular methods suit particular market conditions, and as a trader, if you've ...

The maths stacks up, thats not in dispute. There are a few problems though. An average 60% win rate is realistic, and achieving an average 1:2 risk:reward is equally realistic. When you break these metrics down into those kinds of figures things ...

You are right, and I owe you an apology. Larry Williams was discussed earlier in this thread, and given as an example of someone making large returns. However it was bluesteele who gave Larry as an example. Sorry for the confusion. The point is ...

I've asked you repeatedly for names, and you cant give them. The only example you gave was larry williams making 900K in a competition (during which time he simultaneously lost 6 million in his other accounts !) Some of us do this for a living, and ...

Oanda's MT4 really is a complete disaster, its unusable.