Alright. Had a busy morning as the development over Deutsche Bank had triggered renewed interests on the yen. One accredited investor was contemplating whether to increase exposure in US treasury, or to partially swap their holdings to JPY. With ...

OK. We had SNB earlier during Euro morning, and BOE rates decision, no presser for both. SNB rate was in line with market expectation, +50 bps raising to 1.5%. The statement published was near hawkish. BOE hiked 6-3 by +25 bps to 4.25%. There was ...

+25 bps it is. We'll hear from the man later on where Fed will bring us to. Summary of economic projection put median for 2023 at 5.1%, range from 4.9 to 5.9, with a central tendency at 5.1 to 5.6%. In other words, one, may be two more rate hikes, ...

We do have a couple of central bank events this week. Fed in a few hours from now, SNB and BOE tomorrow. Now, rate hike expectation sees Fed going 25 bps. No doubt. They'll hike, since their job on flighting inflation is not done. On to SNB. We'll ...

OK. Back from my equinox retreat. It was a great one. Judging from market sentiment, I expect the range bound trade to continue, further into May '23. We might get a clearer picture on long term trend after May's FOMC. Now, if Euro drops to 1.028, ...

It was a nice presser by ECB. No price movement? That's Lagarde effect. Euro rallied? That's also Lagarde effect. Quick update on my positions. Cable shorts, floating P/L at +$1.2k. Yen long trades, floating P/L at -$375. No new trades. I may ...

Ok. ECB today. So, we're looking at Euro. From time to time, I'll pull out this chart. We'll see if there's Lagarde effect today. Now, you knew I've been long on this Euro against US dollar for a long ...

OK. An update before I sign off for the day. After listening to Hunt for nearly two hours, I still don't get it, what's in this "budget for growth"? Where's the growth? Let's be honest. SVB, Signature, Credit Suisse aside, markets have reasons ...

Great. A quick update before US retail sales. Euro, Sterling did plunge. Triggered by Credit Suisse sentiment. Yield on German bund fell. Yen became the safe haven flow. Earlier today, I did enter three shorts, here. A continuation of previous ...

It was busy morning today. We looked at BOJ meeting minutes, and dived into keypoints to look for in GB budgets later. I went in to add three shorts: GBPJPY at 163.73, USDJPY at 134.64 and EURJPY at 144.51. Now, on BOJ minutes, we already knew what ...

OK. US CPI came in, in line with expectation, both headline and core. So, what are you going to do with it? Let's dive in. Headline annualized 6%, core at 5.5%. There're some sticky components: food at home +10.2%, electricity and piped gas, ...

OK guys. Final post before I call it a day. Since NY has shifted to GMT-4 this week, I guess it's a good sign, ending earlier. Go for a run while sun is still up. Great. US03M and US06M auctions concluded. 3-month saw no change, still at ...

OK. Went for an early Euro lunch today. Back to my desk, and proceed to close my yen positions. I was short on GBPJPY, USDJPY and added another pair EURJPY exactly a month ago, started here and here. There's no major macro data release today. It's ...

OK. Back in my office on this early Euro morning. Now, I've briefly touch on SVB fallout. In my view, this SVB thing has a rather limited ripper to larger banking system. Bigger banks, more well capitalised ones, like ...

I had to return to my desk this late Friday afternoon. Things settling down a bit down now. I'll probably just skip my dinner, and go straight to party later. Since I hold and trade bank stocks on Nasdaq, I was busy cutting exposures, and ...

OK. Back, briefly for non-farm price action. I'll not trade jobs report, given that erratic prices you probably saw. I just observe. Now, several keys I'll look at before deciding if market expectations change, or if Fed outlook will ...

OK. A quick update on my Cable shorts. I've closed 1/3 of all active positions. Closed 11 trades. I've been shorting this pair since Dec '22, first here, then added more, until you last saw an hour ago, here. Price may continue to dip further, ...

Great. I can now call this day off. After Powell finished his speech. I wouldn't spend a minute longer listening to politicians quizzing Powell, later today, and tomorrow. Most questions are rather irrelavant to monetary policy anyway, since most ...

Back. I was with my family for an early spring retreat last week. On Cable. Yes, I'm still short on this pair with my 30-plus positions. Floating P/L now at +$2.48k. I also have my USDJPY shorts. I'll update on those later. First. ISM manufacturing ...

Markets are waiting for FOMC minutes. Recap on what happened last week. Two Fed members, Bullard and Mester, advocate for a 50 bps hike in Mar '23. My view is that it's unlikely. They're non-voting. We've Brianard leaving for NEC, so a vice-chair ...