pip harvest — I've traded this strategy in the past on a handful of occassions...it seems to work, for now. On two occassions, I actually noticed a case of big UK events (BoE rate decision and minutes) having a significant impact on EUR/USD ...

article on sub-prime — The ultra bear, economist Nouriel Roubini, has just published a massive note on this topic, on his blog. He really does think the world is going to end. If you haven't read this guy before, he does provide some good ...

Latest economic derivatives prices — Adding a little information to the mix: Consensus forecasts for NFP: Forex Factory 115K IKON 113K Reuters 100K Briefing.com 100K The problem with these numbers is that they are dated by several days and ...

Micardo, I think the strongest NFP effect is found in fx and fixed income, equity effects more ambiguous, and commodity impacts even more so. Historically, a surprise of 100k in the NFP has often translated to a roughly 1% change in cable by the end ...

image new and improved, BK !

...but what does it all mean, really ? — Some questions: What is the (new) information content of Zhou's statements? If it is mostly old news, has the USD has sold off too easily (any bad USD news is latched on to when the mkt is a net seller ...

Fighting without fighting.... — ...or diversification without actual diversification: Central banks hold a mixed basket of currencies. If the $ depreciates, the value of their non-$ holdings goes up and the value of their $ holdings goes down, ...

PIMCO write on the USD — image Here is the new article from PIMCO analysts on the USD. It follows the traditional bearish angle.

rhswh — Here are some analyst comments on the decision and statement. Hope they are of use:JAMES KNIGHTLEY, ECONOMIST, ING "There appears to be little to suggest they feel further aggressive tightening is required especially since they believe ...

A couple of charts supporting my last point re general USD weakness: image image The charts are from some old DK research, in which DK finds a seasonal year-end rally pattern in EUR/USD. Nevertheless, the evidence for seasonality in cable (see ...

Seasonality — Here is something on cable and eur/usd that you may find insightful: For the past 5 years, HSBC has produced research looking at seasonality in the pound. If you look at the monthly data you will see a tendency for the currency ...

More stories of whopping losses over at Trader Daily: http://www.traderdaily.com/magazine/article/2786.html I think there is just as much to learn from stories of loss as from stories of success, maybe more.

Candian Income Trust Tax Change and the Loonie — Hi QuestionGuy, it's good to see my scribbling is of some use, and very few questions are stupid. I've done a little bit of research on the CAD income trust tax issue because it is a big issue: ...

there is a blog called 'the3500' that starts of from a point of disaster..the trader has almost wiped out his entire account. May be interesting.

If I can find the time I will post an interesting analysis on cable's seasonality in December and January.

The pound has been trading lower since the open today, and now it looks like the weaker than expected manufacturing production is lending some impetus to the move. We are 200 pips away from the stop-loss, which I think gives the position some decent ...

Goodbye Mr Softpatch — I think today's payroll data is very significant because of where market sentiment was positioned. Here is my take: The USD had sold off on a batch of data that signalled the economy was well and truly in the middle of a ...

The FRED database should have the revised data (ie more recent estimates), but I don't think they have the original data series...as the revisions come in, so they data will be ammended to be as accurate as possible.

That's it Newstrader. Both surveys are released simulataneously - the household survey is where the unemployment rate comes from. That's why, in theory, NFP can show an absolute rise but the unemployment rate could go up. Well, it certainly looks ...

saved! by the skin of my teeth (what a weird phrase!!!)