Thanks. Yes, just one person's opinion, but it does not mean all opinions are equal.

The yield on the 3-month bill is steady around 5.27%. If you think that Fed funds have peaked between 5.25%-5.50% and that the Fed will not cut rates in the next three months, the current yield may be on the low side of the fair value range. Maybe.

To me, gold is trading in line with US rates and dollar. Softer US dollar and lower US rates lends gold support. I am bearish the US dollar and think that the rate adjustment higher in US is nearly over. I think gold can test $1983 in spot market. ...

Maybe. But to be sure, the Fed does not meet in April but May 2-3. China's inflation performance seems to me to lie with what it is measuring and the weights given rather than a monetarist argument. Japan has comparatively low inflation and yet it ...

The market is pricing in about a 1 in 4 chance of a 50 bp hike. The consensus as Namli and Dotzxac007 argue is for two 25 bp hikes. If two 25 bp, then my suggestion is the risk of doing 50 underscores the Fed's push back against premature easing of ...

That was also in the swaps market (15 bp) and if anything the odds fell a bit ahead of the meeting. Yes, I think it was a surprise and the quick 1% rise in the currency seems to reflect that. Is there are more compelling explantion for the price ...

You may be right, but I was referencing the short-term as in intraday momentum indicators. I explicitly said not to chase it lower in the North American moring, and indeed, it has firmed in early NA turnover.

I suspect if it did not peak before the weekend, it came close.

But those clowns as you call experienced people who the media calls upon are not all in agreement. So even if you could fade the last opinion you hear on the TV as a strategy, I suppose. Let us know how that goes. I know many people who trade and ...

If this means anything to you, I have been suggesting the dollar's third big rally since the end of Bretton Woods was over since Q3 19. The market chaos in March disrupted things, but the underlying trend has returned. Of course, it does not move in ...

I see cable dropping on a no deal confirmation as a short-term knee-jerk reaction. I think that the weak dollar backdrop is one of the key factors helping sterling hold up so well. Specific answer. temporal difference. USD dollar cyclical downtrend. ...

LloydOz, I think you exaggerate. I post comments here and on my blog ( url ) nearly every day. I do not upper pearls of wisdom to the unwashed but to those rich enough to speculate or invest internationally and have foreign currency exposure. I do ...

Cashbox, the difference between an argument and an assertion is evidence. Are you making an assertion or do you have evidence? Surely we should hold each to a high standard when sharing such "information"

And yet, US businesses are failing at a record pace.

Thank you kindly.

Do you think that the UK has done anything that the EU would not have approved? The UK began off slowly in its response, but has changed direction and accelerated its efforts. The initial stutter-step was costly. The issue about the standstill ...

Guest: Welcome, and thanks for taking a look at my note. I think, after weeks of ignoring high-frequency economic data it gives traders a heads up it may change and identifies several reports that could be important and discusses what to expect. By ...

Rosengren has already suggested that buying other assets, such as local govt bonds would require a change in the charter. There is no sign that this is imminent. That means that public health crisis will probably be over by the time Congress takes ...

"But don't forget. Price Per Barrel * Number of Barrels Sold Per Day = Demand for USD If you decrease the PPB you are effectively reducing the value of the Dollar. This is one factor in the total Global demand for the Dollar, but very important." ...

Much appreciated.