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CL basically killing any hike expectations for 2022, at least trying. Until inflation corners her and triggers emergency hike ?

Took Friday off, Martin ?

Tapering Recalibrating PEPP last month, recalibrating PEPP again this month, calling end of PEPP in March ......... I'm calling that a tapering cycle. FED and ECB agenda are now in full synch, both tapering till spring

Hey Francesco & Carsten, Nice grid but to me you miss one thing : employment in EZ. Labour shortage is everywhere, pulling up wages. Inflation is already high, 3%, wide above target. You are expecting a neutral ECB based on a return to low core ...

Nobody thinks a rate cut will happen. Expectations are a shift in their forward guidance (from neutral to cut bias).

Nope. TA wise, smart money has already preempted FED'shift with a reversal up in EURUSD and a reversal down in DXY on D1, 10 days ago. Current legs all across the board are just retraces to last break point (1.118x in EURUSD, 97.7x in DXY for ...

Current rates differential between EUR and USD is 2.25% to 2.50%. FA wise & ceteris paribus in EUR : => a 50bp cut in the US in 2019 will unlock FA level 1.161x in EURUSD => a 75bp cut will unlock FA level 1.191x (tip : just check monthly closes and ...

Yes but almost all early business indicators (the ones you didn't mention in your article) show that risks to US economy are now tilted to the downside, while core PCE index remains well below FED's inflation target, suggesting temporary factors ...