You need to rule out the null-hypothesis "the hammer has no predictive power". You have stats about 496 hammers on G/U H1. Now randomly pick 496 non-hammer candles and do the same stats. If the results are too similar the hammer is nothing special.

There are a few problems that I found. Determining if a currency is stronger than another is the same question as knowing if their cross is trending up or down. The measurement will be some kind of moving average. It lags. Choosing the strongest vs ...

Ok. I open a long 0.1 lot. Market goes against me. Sad. I open short 0.3 lots. I'm net short 0.2 lots. My unrealized loss is 30 pips. Market goest against me again. Ok, it is surefire after all! I buy 0.6. I'm now net long 0.4 lots with a unrealized ...

Of course it is what he does. It looks good in hindsight or when the price waves nicely like on the right hand side of the screnshot. But doing the same thing in real time when the price is like the left hand side right before the MA turns sharp the ...

What is the formula ?

The centered moving average is a MA shifted backward in time. At a given bar the value of the MA is the value the MA will have in <lag-of-the-MA> bars. The current bars are a linear projection which will repaint.

Because you're using a non-causal smoother (=uses data from the future) as opposed to a filter. The dotted lines project the bands forward and will correct with every new bar. With a usual MA the price doesn't return to the MA. It is the MA that ...

That's exactly what I mean by "You don't trade the average, you average the trades". And indeed martingale is not the solution except for people who claim they are so smart they can beat the math until they no longer claim anything when their trade ...

Unfortunately you have to slice because despite the trend is overall zero it is made of a succession of up, then down, then up trends... You don't trade the average, you average the trades. In math terms the limit of the expectancy is different from ...

What you describe is an option straddle. But you cannot build a straddle with longs and shorts. You can't trade volatily directly this way.

In this situation the price is mainly below the black EMA200 line. You will mainly enter long trades during this down trend and the price will often require that you average down. image With the "forecast" -- which like FXEZ underlined I admit is ...

You also do! Betting the "mean reversion" is a already directional forecast. With options you can build a straddle which is a bet that the price won't move far away. This already is a directional forecast (except you also trade the volatilty short). ...

Absolutely true. I tried adding the curvature of the MA but the result is very unstable. Also the MA200 has nothing special and any MA would have its own slope. I know not objective way to select the "best". I don't even know how to estimate the ...

It replaces the MA200 a bit like the blue line in yoriz video. It is the target price. I use the MA200 to project the trend (trend following component) and the 1st standard deviation is a kind of the mean reverting component you expect the price to ...

Like yoriz did (btw thanks for the details and the video!), I wondered if it would be interesting to trade the future fair value instead of the current MA. My idea was to use the standard deviation (over 200 samples) to estimate where the price has ...

Not what I meant. Say you enter somewhere in the orange bubble: image But theta is consummed and you add somewhere in the second orange bubble: image How do you manage/mitigate this? image In this example the price had a nice pullback to close ...

How do you roll-over/manage the trade when the 800 MA is on the opposite side of your positions and keep running away?

The sum of N draws from a normal distribution with mean µ and variance σ² is N times the mean (N.µ) and its variance is N times the variance (N.σ²). The standard deviation, which is the square root of the variance, is √(N.σ²) = σ√N.

Can you share the algorithm so we can reproduce it?

Same stats but for 2014-2018 to not include the covid period. Now the negative 4-th sigma is due to the downtrend of A/U over this period. image