"A rising tide lifts all boat." The sudden drastic improvement in risk appetite due to what seems like improving trade talks is in HIGHLY MISLEADING. Look, we still have problems. And this "improved talks" is really in my opinion, just a way for the ...

All eyes on GBP! No real comments here. Im bearish on UK in general as long as brexit uncertainty remains.

Last weeks rally in risk assets really caught me by surprise. As there are many potential catalyst for a bear case in global economic growth, it is really surprising to see much buying activities. Im taking an anti consensus bet on this one. My ...

We are starting to see more signs of the impact of trade war fears and economic slowdown. With business confidence dropping more than expected. Also, Apple's profit guidance is certainly not helping. These news could mean intraday shorting ...

This is probably the biggest risk off movement i have seen in currencies due to cutting of profit guidance! We are seeing swings of 2-3% in Yen and USD pairs. While it is tempting to jump on the risk off bandwagon, I would be skeptical that such ...

Happy New Year Fellow Traders! Just to put in my thoughts before markets open in a few hours time. I am starting to read opinions and views calling for US Dollar Weakness going into 2019. With the prime arguement that a Dovish Fed and slowing US ...

Big gains in US session. But be cautious that this is simply volatility and could be a sign of uncertainty! Traders could position themselves for scalps on risk sentiment currencies such as short Yen trades or long EM currencies. But do note to take ...

Woke up to big news of press release that Steve Mnuchin "reassuring" everyone that the US economy is strong. A quick scroll on twitter tells me that this actually have the opposite effect. Personally, I feel that this news is significant given the ...

Here is an interesting finding to mull over the weekend. image The table above shows the number of days which S&P500 closes away from record high levels. This is given in percentage form to give context. We can see that the number of days spent ...

To recap on last week. Equities had a very rough week. With US Equities nearly reaching bear market territory. US Dollar also had a rather volatile week. Falling on a more dovish Fed yet bouncing back when markets became risk off. Heading into ...

Our analysis are simply opinions we hold. I wont be able to tell you right from wrong unless you are wayyyyyy off the mark. Glad to hear your inputs! It is well appreciated. My opinion on it is that the move was driven mostly by USD strength as Fed ...

The big event coming up later is fed interest rate decision. Markets are seemingly pricing in a dovish rate hike. However I do feel that the expectation of a dovish fed is way overdone. Yes there might likely be a change of tune in the fed's ...

Having quantitative research is of course essential in trading, nothing wrong with your thinking! It sounds all good. The hard part is finding the data to be used for this analysis. You typically have to buy these data. Which means additional ...

Interesting statistic which I found: From 1928 - 2017 (89 year period). S&P500 have had 28 losing years. This means we have a 31.5% chance of a losing year at any given year. Empirically, the probability of a subsequent losing year following a ...

Interesting that you mentioned consensus was for inflation to pick up. I was not aware of that. Im also a fan of Ray Dalio myself. His principles is a really interesting concept which I try to adapt into the way I live life. I find his theory of ...

Thanks for the support. Im definitely motivated to keep this thread going. Inflation wise. It depends on which country you are talking about. For US inflation, my view is that given the recent trade war saga, pace of rate hikes and wearing off of ...

One of the big events happening this coming week is the Fed Interest Rate decision. Here is a possible trade idea for it. Currently markets are unsure if the Fed will pull off a dovish rate hike. If that happens, there may be some glimmer of hope ...

Oh to add on. Traders with larger risk appetite may look to go long risk sentiment/equities today (E.g Long Aud, Nzd, EM Currencies. Short Jpy, Chf) But do trade with caution!

Lots of conflicting news coming out in recent days. Equities & risk sentiment swinging wildly. My updated bias for equities and risk sentiment trades is neutral with high levels of volatility. I would suggest to stay out of the markets until things ...

VERY volatile session in the US. Equities rebounded on news of possible slowing of fed hikes. I suspect that there will be alot of position closing today as it is friday + lots of uncertainty currently. So traders might not want to risk holding over ...