Hmm these moves are not predictable. Unless you have a large account, it is impossible to trade. Better to hit it systematically regardless of the outcome.
If you're profitable it doesn't matter if you hedge or not (brokers are happy with the extra transaction). If you are not profitable, don't think hedging will make you profitable. There is no edge in hedge if you know what I mean
Obviously there are secrets in trading (as anything else in life) and obviously no one will reveal anything on the Internet or public forum. In fact any thread with the "secret" in the title should be deleted.
Forget about backtesting, it does not work if you want to trade purely on the results. Why? In your example you tested on period 1 and then did the same test on period 2. There's no way to know if it will work on period 1 - period x or period 2 + ...
By selling premium options? Really because that's his strategy. This is very risky if you don't know and one trade can wipe out all the profit made. If you know how to trade the underlying contract then you don't need to trade options.
This is misleading: The price could've gone down even on positive news The spread widen make it impossible to catch the move unless gambling. Having said that yes the price isn't random but your example doesn't fit the purpose.
zghnno commented Dec 2, 2020
