CPI m/m to three decimals came in at 0.187%. Core CPI m/m to three decimals came in at 0.281%.

Agree. 100 bps in cuts by end of year is outlandish. There's no way in current climate. The bullish scenario would be 75 (three 25s). Base case is still a Sep cut of 25 bps.

Very mixed. Shelter prices are keeping the core number higher. Gas prices are helping overall CPI come down. I don't think this is enough to continue the 50 bps narrative. The shelter index rose by 0.5% in August, after a ...

Williams is speaking and seems like it's a political event. Waller is speaking at 11am. Then, we have CPI next week. If Waller doesn't provide guidance I'd be surprised. And I agree that this is nuts! Basically 50/50! There couldn't be any more ...

Enough for a 50? I don't see it. Waller at 11am might shine some light.

Very mixed. Worst case scenario for the Fed if they want to cut by 50 bps. Not much slowing in the labor market coupled with higher wage inflation. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.1 million unemployed ...

Headline data in line with expectations. Overall mixed as Vancarbon pointed out . Prices paid seems like the big story here, coming in hot as the Fed wants to lower rates. Notables: Ten industries reported ...

Manufacturing slowdown started in 2022. Contracting 21 of the last 22 months. We haven't seen anything lower than 46. We probably will though. image

I don't think the data will come in soft enough for what the market is pricing in. Market is pricing in >100 bps of cuts through the end of the year. 50 of that in Sept. That's way too much unless things really start to deteriorate, and at a fast ...

We'll see. I thought the labor market would've softened a long time ago. Maybe it was and it just hasn't been reflected in the data. We might be singing a different tune if that -818K jobs revision was reflected as lower numbers when they came out. ...

Yeah I'm watching that. I'm not sure in what world the Fed is going to deliver a 50 bps cut. Outside of a disastrous NFP I think that's going to have to come back to Earth. I'd expect Waller on Friday to maybe deliver the final guidance before the ...

A huge miss with a big revision. Historically, JOLTS is still relatively very high. The healthcare and transportation sectors have shown substantial declines in job openings, while professional and business services saw growth. Quits Rate remained ...

Definitely on the weaker side with prices coming in hot. Prices increased, with the index up by 1.1 percentage points to 54.0, pointing to higher raw material costs. Raw Material Prices increased, driven by factors like ...

Kind of a dud. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index rose by 2.5%. Personal Income increased by $75.1 billion (0.3%) in July. This growth was primarily due to higher compensation. ...

The expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps in Sept is not rooted in reality. It would take a new trigger that we haven't seen yet. The -818K revision wasn't it either. I think Powell on Friday is going to shed some light on what ...

This data should have tanked the USD. There's too many rate cuts baked into the market. As we saw last week, given a trigger we'll see large moves in the USD (to the upside). Absent of these triggers it the USD is in sell-mode. We have the Fed ...

Sept rate cut. Markets were pricing in a 50 basis point cut. That likely won't happen. That needs to unwind. Markets are finally doing it, resulting in USD strength. 25 bps rate cut in Sept is the consensus right now and markets are only 75% priced ...

Markets are pricing out a 50 bps Sept rate cut. 25 bps is still the base line or at least consensus for Sept. There's some pricing out that still needs to happen, which should result in more USD strength.

Strong . Not much weakness in this report at all. Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers increased by 1.4% from June 2024, contributing significantly to overall retail growth. Notable increase of 4.0% y/y. ...

Soft. Market is still too dovish on rates, hence data wasn't soft enough to continue to believe there will be a 50 bps rate cut in Sept. That's why we're seeing strength in the USD. Notables: Although it appears it came ...