I would recommend that you don't get too obsessed with % winning trades. If you find a winning strategy with higher % winning trades, the average wins will tend to be smaller than the average loss. This sounds good for the beginner, but it's like ...

How much is that, monthly, if I may ask? I'd be very interested in a cheaper BBG alternative, as well.

Actually, there are at least two issues that you need to think of: trading costs portfolio volatility The higher your frequency, the higher your trading costs (in terms of bid-ask spreads, commissions, and slippage): BAD. However, in general, the ...

RitalinFX, Actually, not using leverage is a definitely a smart thing to do - using leverage is the easiest way to realize your risk of ruin. Usually, I want to trade as small-as-possible in order to have the law of large numbers on my side. Without ...

Almost all financial time-series are non-stationary, so you need to be extra careful when making conclusions from statistics. In other words, when you use a moving window on the data, statistics like average and standard deviation can change ...

Trading Costs for Binaries — What are bid-ask spreads like on binary options in a regular, liquid, non-volatile market? Let's say for USDJPY or EURUSD? (pick a liquid expiry and strike) The biggest issue I can see with these derivatives is, if ...

FWIW, homes used to be a good hedge against inflation - until it got pumped up into a bubble. Makes one wonder if the same could be happening with gold.

Thank you, hanover, for the equation. One equation clarifies everything - it was my mistake for thinking that "expectancy" was mathematical "Expected Value" which is: Expected_Value = ( win% x net avg win size - loss% x net avg loss size) = SUM( ...

My fault - I didn't see the "random market" part of that post. If it's a "random walk", there's not much you can do, strategy or MM-wise, that I agree. FWIW, I consider Central Bank intervention to be an example of forex insider trading.

Do a search on Markov regime-switching models for a mathematical approach to evolving economic models. I suspect what we are observing is partly due to the on-going financial dislocation. Weren't there some crazy moves in AUDUSD in October, 2008?

Assumptions behind "MM has no bearing on expectancy" — This comment bothered me somewhat, especially after reading hanover's phenomenal 15 point post here: url I think 3. in the comment above is true when you assume that there is ...

Risk adjust your expectancy — Let me just start by saying that Hanover's post is the single best post I have seen so far on FF - it dispels plenty of myths about trading and MM and the writing is so concise. I believe the more experience one ...

This is an old, but very interesting thread. I just wanted to make a couple of comments: 1. Regarding the scale diagram with unhedged and hedged positions: I agree 100% that they are identical for forex trading. However, they are not equivalent for ...

For the OP's specific question of dumping one trade, there is virtually no difference between ECN and retail. In general, ECN brokers do not set the market price, because they can't compete against the underlying bank's bid-ask. However, they can, ...

Obviously. You can have your broker on the other side of your trades if you like. I prefer not. Remember, when you use a retail broker, he gets paid when you lose. He has all the market data and your trade history, including your stops, account ...

this is actually a very important question — Who is on the other side may be extremely relevant, especially in an exchange-free and regulation-free forex market. Brb-fraudin is actually asking a very important question. With forex, brokers are ...

ECN over Retail — Never forget that brokers are running a business. If they are giving out freebies, you must think, if I were that brokers, why would I do so? I must do something to ensure that I get those freebies back and then some more... ...

I have an easy answer for you - incorporate that funding cash into your trading system. Also do any conversions you would expect to do upon withdraw. In other words, test to see if hedge/non-hedging would hurt/help you, if you think it's a ...

To hedge against drops in USD, buy EUR/USD futures for delivery a year from now (or whatever term you like) - you will be obligated to buy EUR at today's fixed price for USD, your book currency. If the USD strengthens against the EUR, you would've ...

Thanks for the sanity-check, Rabid. I also find it amusing when someone chooses a retail broker because they offer 100:1 leverage. Currently, I find myself having a hard time using more than 2:1 - maybe one day, I will go up to 5:1, but 100:1?!? ...