Dot plot is above market expectations, Powell is hawkish, and yet dollar is lower, and stocks not bothered too much. This definitely looks like a short squeeze to me, and the money maker may want to extend the rally to at least 1.25 tomorrow (I ...

UK has effectively become 3rd world country after Brexit, why its currency cannot become 3rd world currency? (It is a joke, but not as removed from reality as I would like it to be.)

I wrote this yesterday evening, and it is still valid. (Expected) rate differential is the biggest FX mover by far, Fed is hawkish, BOE is sort of dovish, don't fight it.

I didn't mean a draw, I think 2/7 or 3/6 is more likely. Bailey is more of a hawk atm.

Split decision 0.5 / 0.75 is also possible, which will be seen as dovish.

They probably will go with 0.75. 100bps is too much, but with 50bps they will risk to be seen as laggards among central banks (better only than Japan). The market was pricing a fair change of 100bps a week ago, do you know if this is still valid?

I know a lot of people will try to catch the bottom... don't do that. Of course, you may be lucky to catch a retrace at the right time, but the odds are against you. Fed press conference today is the game changer, and what's worse, comes at a time ...

Well, I guess situation is very clear now. Uptrend is broken, we won't return to 1.16 in the next few months at least (maybe years, maybe never -- who knows). USD will appreciate, stocks will be sold. The market waited for the pivot and priced it to ...

A tight SL is usually triggered on a Fed day, even if GU does go up (I don't think it will though).

Well, most of the time Fed confirms its hawkishness, and others confirm their tentativeness, and even when raising interest rates talk about need to look at the wider economy. I actually remember at least one instance in the last few months USD fell ...

I see those two scenarios in play as well, but I believe scenario 2 is more likely. Fed acts on a mandate. Inflation is high and getting higher, unemployment is low. There is no reason for Fed to put the brakes on right now. Still, the market is ...

My medium-term bias remain very bearish for GBP and stocks. However, we saw very positive risk mood today which (together with positive news) lifted the pound as well. I really hope for a big market rally in the next few weeks. I have little doubt ...

That would be a suicide for Conservatives, to go into election even without a leader. And if Conservatives are good at anything, it is at clinging to power. I think they will first destroy the country, and then in 2 years time Labour would come ...

I think it does not trigger GE automatically. Conservatives still can elect new PM without going to GE which they know they would lose. If the choice is Truss or elections, there is no doubt conservatives will stick with Truss.

Posted this morning. Was too pessimistic with 1.1, other than that I was correct. Made some good money, could have made 4 times more if I were patient. But cannot complain.

To those who want to buy pound, I recommend looking at the gilts chart. Bonds are always the first to react. Does this chart tell you that confidence in UK finances is restored?

Well, I guess the last three weeks are probably more bullish than bearish. But then again, the rest of the year is quite bearish, and this is the first meaningful retrace in quite a long time. From where I stand, we had a run to 1.15, then we could ...

Ah, ok.

Interesting, it is at 148.4 on my chart, and was at 148 about an hour ago.

But why? Surely price action does not look bullish today, however you look at it?