Hi PA, hope you had a good vacation. Some thoughts to a/u. The pair continues to trade in a triangle formation. The period March - May produced a 3mth evening star candle formation and since then the mkt following Yellen's Harvard speech [at the end ...

Expecting price to find short term support around 0.7745 but favour the more solid support at 0.7720 or 0.7675 for a renewed test into the 0.78 level. Weekly, Daily & 4hr charts

Update from a few weeks back. The fibs might be lining up but still not a time to be going short. url

Have a look at the oil & copper charts [for the same time period]. Now while oil might recover, copper & aud might or might not. Makes you wonder what'll happen to aud when dollar strength comes back.

What's going to drive this?

Yes. I would not be surprised if audusd were to go into a range [0.77 - 0.74] from here for a while. We'll have a better picture about this come the end of the week.

Hi PA, I want put this longer term, weekly chart in here, thinking price might eventually want to get to 0.79 [maybe soon, maybe later]. url

Becareful with that long term view [don't know your analysis or benchmarks]. I think the US dollar could continue to weaken until the DXY lvl 94 - 93.5 is reached...same idea on the USDCHF 0.95 - 0.94 url

Out of my longs [from 0.7524] @ 0.7670. Risk to the downside building...

[quote=rendite;8826982]I'll be looking to buy the dip sub 0.755 [preferably around 0.748] for a 0.774 target... Working out fine...

Hedge Funds were selling US dollars again [from the latest COT Report]. Buying in EUR even though their overall positioning is still short, with an increase in nett longs for YEN & AUD. Maybe a good opportunity to get long before Yellen speaks.

No, absolutely not. To find out what will weaken up the Aussie, you'll need to go else where. The rally in the Aussie since Feb has really nothing to do with Austrialian fundamentals and alot to do with Central Banks and Global sentiment for risk. ...

I'll be looking to buy the dip sub 0.755 [preferably around 0.748] for a 0.774 target... url

In the run up to the FOMC Statement, risk has come off, surprise, surprise. I don't think AU is done with this move lower yet. There are two important fibs lying in wait [match up nicely too] just north of 0.74. In addition, 0.7415 [ a level tested ...

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose to a three-month high last week following weeks of sideways trading. The improved sentiment towards commodities was also reflected in the weekly update on money manager positioning. During the week ending March 8 ...

I see it like that too. Nice tread you've got going.

Returning to FF after some time away and I'll be using the forum to put my thoughts down as a home work. As it stands, I have the audusd pair in focus. As long as audusd remains bullish I'll be playing it from the long side. My first level of ...

@ hadox same with the RUT, there's resistance that needs to be negociated but I think the low is in for the mth now. Should we get a big down move soon I'll buy back some out-of-the-money puts again to protect my overal position. Edit: The ones ...

@ hadox I'm fairly confident the RUT will. I can't vouch for the DAX with certainty but if I were trading the DAX I'd be open towards the idea that it could move up from here.