Thanks for sharing the info, eTrader. My only other concern is regarding the large lot size and possible over-leveraging used for a 10k euro account (roughly $15k). This gives you great return, but even at 1:400-500 leverage you would be limited to ...

Hi eTrader, I have been experimenting with the grid EA's in this thread for a long time and have been using the VGrid series in a similar way to you - turning it on at specific setups like london breakouts, consolidation breakouts, 123setups, ...

Stop Loss? — Memento - what kind of stop loss do you use when trading the gap(say you target 75% of the gap as your TP)? or do you close on time expiry? I used Pircj EA (Sunday Gap Trader v1) to backtest - you can specify TP and SL based on a ...

Interesting - I found something along the lines of why I started this thread. myFxBook has a calculation of Risk of Ruin that gives you an idea of what the chance of a specific amount of drawdown will occur. For example, under advanced statistics, ...

Interesting... Well, at least the chance of more than one consecutive sequence should be even less probable, so it shouldn't add too much. Yes I use fractional position sizing (ie. a set precentage)...

Why am I trying to find my max risk per trade? Because the amount you risk can make a huge difference when compounding. If I make 5000 trades and my risk per trade is: a) 0.01%, then my ROI is 28% b) 0.1%, ROI = 1122% c) 0.5%, ROI = 2.6x(10^7)% d) ...

That's exactly what I am trying to figure out - instead of risk or total ruin, I'm trying to calculate risk of losing 20%. All the while maximize my ROI. Don't worry, thelws. I am aware of proper money management and blown accounts - I won't do ...

Yes, I realize that is a possible sequence of events. Of course, it is highly unlikely with a 97% win rate. That's why my last post had an associated risk applied (ie. there is 0.4% risk that 4 consecutive losses or worse may happen). Nothing is for ...

It's all coming together now — I think I have found what I am looking for. Again, thank you for your help. My system takes approximately 1000 trades in a year. Given the expected ROI, initial equity I have, and financial goals, I would expect ...

FQ, how do you think trading more than one pair simultaneously affect the above calculations?

I did read post#2, but that was over two weeks ago and I had forgotten that information. I hate having things spelled out for me, but thank you for the detailed explanation. You raise yet another very interesting way to solve the problem: "what is ...

Yes, this is what I am looking for, FQ! I just wanted to better understand what to expect out of a certain system with specific win rate (so that risk could be better determined). I understand that I was calculating the percent chance of 2 ...

If only I had the skills to write a simulation program...so I must depend on my think-tank to arrive at the theoretical statistical outcomes...which, at best, is still just a probability or confidence factor rather than any kind of certainty.

Thank you all for your thoughts. I agree it is exactly the same as the equation I used, just presented in a different manner (and useful in either format). For instance: a) the likelihood of 2 consecutive losses on a 97% win rate is 1 in 1111 = ...

Thanks for the interesting article. Lots of detailed maths to show that a large amount of random binomial (eg. forex) data will usually demonstrate a distribution that is asymptotically normal (not the same as an asymptotic function): "The ...

Maya, Here is the original version.

OK, Xux99. Please find attached a zip file with examples of some problematic trades and a .doc file. Please email me to discuss further. Thanks!

I'll post some screenshots later when I get home from work. I have looked at Fractals as well, but they seem to repaint badly. So, I stuck to the ZigZag. However, it still misses some valid entries. I wonder if there is a better way to "hardcode" ...

Xux, got the backtester to work now. The logic isn't quite right - it's missing some easily identifiable 123 setups and entering incorrectly elsewhere. Even the original version of Opto123 EA missed some occassionally, but was catching some that ...