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- 94 Results (2 Threads , 92 Replies )

- optojay replied Apr 27, 2011
Thanks for sharing the info, eTrader. My only other concern is regarding the large lot size and possible over-leveraging used for a 10k euro account (roughly $15k). This gives you great return, but even at 1:400-500 leverage you would be limited to ...

- optojay replied Apr 20, 2011
Hi eTrader, I have been experimenting with the grid EA's in this thread for a long time and have been using the VGrid series in a similar way to you - turning it on at specific setups like london breakouts, consolidation breakouts, 123setups, ...

- optojay replied Apr 18, 2011
Stop Loss? — Memento - what kind of stop loss do you use when trading the gap(say you target 75% of the gap as your TP)? or do you close on time expiry? I used Pircj EA (Sunday Gap Trader v1) to backtest - you can specify TP and SL based on a ...

- optojay replied Mar 3, 2011
Interesting - I found something along the lines of why I started this thread. myFxBook has a calculation of Risk of Ruin that gives you an idea of what the chance of a specific amount of drawdown will occur. For example, under advanced statistics, ...

- optojay replied Jan 24, 2011
Interesting... Well, at least the chance of more than one consecutive sequence should be even less probable, so it shouldn't add too much. Yes I use fractional position sizing (ie. a set precentage)...

- optojay replied Jan 24, 2011
Why am I trying to find my max risk per trade? Because the amount you risk can make a huge difference when compounding. If I make 5000 trades and my risk per trade is: a) 0.01%, then my ROI is 28% b) 0.1%, ROI = 1122% c) 0.5%, ROI = 2.6x(10^7)% d) ...

- optojay replied Jan 24, 2011
That's exactly what I am trying to figure out - instead of risk or total ruin, I'm trying to calculate risk of losing 20%. All the while maximize my ROI. Don't worry, thelws. I am aware of proper money management and blown accounts - I won't do ...

- optojay replied Jan 24, 2011
Yes, I realize that is a possible sequence of events. Of course, it is highly unlikely with a 97% win rate. That's why my last post had an associated risk applied (ie. there is 0.4% risk that 4 consecutive losses or worse may happen). Nothing is for ...

- optojay replied Jan 24, 2011
It's all coming together now — I think I have found what I am looking for. Again, thank you for your help. My system takes approximately 1000 trades in a year. Given the expected ROI, initial equity I have, and financial goals, I would expect ...

- optojay replied Jan 23, 2011
FQ, how do you think trading more than one pair simultaneously affect the above calculations?

- optojay replied Jan 23, 2011
I did read post#2, but that was over two weeks ago and I had forgotten that information. I hate having things spelled out for me, but thank you for the detailed explanation. You raise yet another very interesting way to solve the problem: "what is ...

- optojay replied Jan 23, 2011
Yes, this is what I am looking for, FQ! I just wanted to better understand what to expect out of a certain system with specific win rate (so that risk could be better determined). I understand that I was calculating the percent chance of 2 ...

- optojay replied Jan 23, 2011
If only I had the skills to write a simulation program...so I must depend on my think-tank to arrive at the theoretical statistical outcomes...which, at best, is still just a probability or confidence factor rather than any kind of certainty.

- optojay replied Jan 23, 2011
Thank you all for your thoughts. I agree it is exactly the same as the equation I used, just presented in a different manner (and useful in either format). For instance: a) the likelihood of 2 consecutive losses on a 97% win rate is 1 in 1111 = ...

- optojay replied Jan 21, 2011
Thanks for the interesting article. Lots of detailed maths to show that a large amount of random binomial (eg. forex) data will usually demonstrate a distribution that is asymptotically normal (not the same as an asymptotic function): "The ...

- Chance of Consecutive Losses
I am trying to figure out what is a safe money management scheme (ie. how much to risk per trade) ...

- optojay replied Oct 12, 2010
Maya, Here is the original version.

- optojay replied Sep 19, 2010
OK, Xux99. Please find attached a zip file with examples of some problematic trades and a .doc file. Please email me to discuss further. Thanks!

- optojay replied Sep 18, 2010
I'll post some screenshots later when I get home from work. I have looked at Fractals as well, but they seem to repaint badly. So, I stuck to the ZigZag. However, it still misses some valid entries. I wonder if there is a better way to "hardcode" ...

- optojay replied Sep 18, 2010
Xux, got the backtester to work now. The logic isn't quite right - it's missing some easily identifiable 123 setups and entering incorrectly elsewhere. Even the original version of Opto123 EA missed some occassionally, but was catching some that ...