Ha, I think of it like a hot fashion right now, but eventually what's in fashion goes out of fashion, you know? I do think that we'll at least retest the previous swing high (roughly 247.88, depending on your data feed) from here, though. Maybe it ...

Actually, no, it wouldn't tell you that. It could easily be coincidence that you were right, especially when you are considering one isolated move. If you used the method for several years and had a statistically significant number of predictions to ...

Oh, and this is just the beginning. I figure we'll start with the basics and gradually get more advanced. The next entry will be about trend change and trends within trends.

Hey, I'm going to start a thread on basic trend trading, you'll probably save yourself a lot of money by listening to some of the people on here.

What trend do you want to trade? There are trends within trends within trends at all times. I should probably rephrase this. What time frames do you like to trade on?

I LOVE that expression. Very English. Anyway, one thing you can do to get around this is trade currency futures through the CME. US regulations stipulate that all futures brokers must have enough cash on hand every day to pay out all accounts if the ...

Hedge funds utilize leverage, though I see what you're saying. Stop losses are a part of proper money management, because usually you have to define a maximum loss to get a good idea of how your account will shape up long-term, even if it's a 200 ...

50% of Kelly's percent is supposed to be the optimal since it cuts your risk dramatically while still giving you 75% of the profits of the full percentage. I would think that the 80% cited by the other poster is still too high. A way you could apply ...

Well, that's not exactly the case. The big time pros trade differently for two reasons: 1.)Their positions are HUGE. They can't jump in and out like we can, unless they're running automated arbitrage models. Williams and Bollinger have both taken a ...

Nice try, smarty pants. — Ok, I presented the analysis I did to show ONE relationship between oil and the dollar. In reality, the relationship is extremely complex with all sorts of factors which affect the correlation in varying ways from ...

I beg to differ. The human brain is the most complex aggregate of matter in the known universe-a "neural net" with a QUADRILLION connections. I've been listening to this "computers replacing humans" stuff for years. I think it will happen for things ...

Generally it is good, yes. Oil contributes to the price of pretty much everything. Oil goes to make electricity which runs factories that make the products you consume, it is used to ship those products to the stores you buy them in, etc. When the ...

You're welcome. You just got the best advice you'll ever get for free. I'm not saying that because I'm great or anything, but you have to admit there's a problem when you trade heavily enough that your account is down 70% on the day.

MONEY MANAGEMENT. Money management. Wait, let me repeat that. Money management. Most pros never put more than 2% of their account at risk on any one trade. You are at 35x that. There's a problem. You are trading too heavily. Google Ryan Jones, (I ...

This is going to sound mean, but I have to say it: STOP COMPLAINING I am telling you this because I care. Really. Here is the unfortunate reality you will have to acknowledge when you trade anything: You will NOT catch every trade, you will NOT ...

I don't do the whole james16 pin bar thing, but one thing that jumps out at me is this: Notice how the candle came down to your lower fork line and then price got chased aaaaaaaall the way back up to close slightly higher than it started? Pretty ...

There's not a lot of input required here. It was never a divergence setup in the first place, so you don't trade it. If you worry about all the trades your system doesn't catch, you'll go nuts. You can be fabulously rich grabbing a small piece of ...

Sure you can. In the end, that's what MA's do. They smooth price movements. It all goes back to statistics. The more data points you have, the less an outlier result will affect the average. If you're going to use it to base patterns and trend lines ...

Here's a tip. When you read books, don't take each system as being right or wrong in relation to the other systems out there. Think about WHY the system works. When you get down to it, the vast majority of systems are simply expressing the same ...