So if the risk factor is cut the system works. The system is broken essentially because it goes beyond the kelly criterion max bet value. The math for kelly bet is basically the same for this. I do want to explore more on why the max value bet ...

Some 200 MA stats to consider. GBPUSD, 1 hr chart, last 5000 bars. Each swing (swing being price closing above or below MA) on average moves 181 or more pips from its starting point (close)... BUT only 11% of swings are actually equal to or greater ...

Money, will you please link to or explain, how you do your hedging? I know you try to consume 80% of a large range. So is your hedging you just bounce back and forth until a zone that is 20% of the expected range looking for the "leave" to consume ...

AUDNZD finally closed... Just holding USDJPY long. For sure though this was going to get stopped out but it's held on. Will hold over the weekend.

You are correct, as long as you can stop down the path you are currently on and start again, you will end up being profitable BUT that is not the rules of the system. The rules are you risk 40% of your equity to make 50%. Not just 40% of starting ...

.25-.2=0.05 You have an expected value of 5% because you have a 50% chance of making 50% minus a 50% chance of making 40%.

Space, Time & Ergodicity When you first look at a price chart, you see that we are watching price evolve over 2 axes, price and time. And as you watch the price trade, it appears that these 2 axes are linked and are moving together. But… are they ...

Spiked. USDJPY will likely stop soon. When margin is free may long some GBPJPY...

Try EURUSD again. Let's see what happens!

Market said NO SIR!

It will end up being near the 200 MA line but basically, you want it above the swing high. I personally do 10 pips above the close of the marked candle in the image and you will see why later when we go into the data, but again, it works out to be ...

CADCHF hit TP so I finally freed up some margin. NZDUSD still looking pretty ripe. Shorting here. Probabilities suggest we have about a 40-50% probability of profit with this one. Time will tell though! Can almost see the 3rd leg of what most would ...

Yes that looks like money to me. Forgive my mixing of terms, since we are below MA, we want a lower high, which comes just after your horizontal line. Selling 20-40 pips from that peak looking 1:4 to 1:1.5 RR (depending on where in the 20-40 pip ...

I don’t trade it on this account as I am in US and can only trade gold on futures exchanges. Just the 28 major pairs and crosses.

Yes that is what I mean! I normally don’t use these terms that often and just trade on the data but trying to explain it to others this way before diving into data! above MA, we want higher lows. Below MA we want lower highs. im sure I’ll mix it up ...

Once spreads tighten again after the close will be looking to get short NZDUSD. Set up looks really nice... Need to free up some margin though so we will see...

So the general, intuitive way to describe it that most traders will understand/relate to is, if we are trending up, we are looking for a lower high and then a continuation of anywhere from 20-40 pips from that area. Typically looking for RR anywhere ...

This played out exactly as expected. Too bad I missed the entry while sleeping

AUDJPY and USDJPY trades are basically stuck at entry. Shorting EURJPY to hedge the JPY exposure a bit. Will be looking to short another JPY pair if it's in play to be hedged completely on JPY. We will see what the market provides though.

Taking USDJPY Long. Setup forming just as we would like to see it. The model suggests this is a pretty high probability setup (greater than 50% probability of profit). With RR being offered by the market, it worth taking the risk! Only downside is ...