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- bartholemew replied Aug 7, 2021
Thesis remains the same.
- bartholemew replied Aug 7, 2021
Thesis remains the same.
- bartholemew replied Apr 28, 2021
Powell acknowledges housing market frothiness, but since nobody needs shelter, hey, there's no inflation.
- bartholemew replied Apr 23, 2021
We'll see how US tax policy changes affect the fiscal issues and how infrastructure spend drives growth. It should not be lost on the Fed or the Biden administration that ZIRP to Infinity puts the US in deep dangerous waters whenever the next global ...
- bartholemew replied Apr 23, 2021
While they have no mandate to target exchange rates directly, they must take exchange rates into account for the things they do target, which can then indirectly affect exchange rates. Draghi hinted at this more than once IIRC. As for PPP, we can ...
- bartholemew replied Apr 14, 2021
Still bearish on EURUSD on daily/weekly charts, for the same reasons as stated before. Weekly/monthly EURUSD chart is attempting to confirm a long-term trend reversal down to up. Such long-term reversals must have a fundamental basis, and I don't ...
- bartholemew replied Feb 25, 2021
Dollar weakness or lack thereof is driving the train here, not any EUR strength. EUR is weak relative to GBP, AUD, NZD. Expect EURUSD to get hit hardest if USD rallies on risk-off sentiment or any major "strong dollar policy" announcements from ...
- bartholemew replied Feb 25, 2021
Another failure to re-take 1.22 sets up short sales with 1.19 targets IMO. Reflexive dip buying works until it doesn't, and then the realization that it's stopped working begins to spread and feed on itself.
- bartholemew replied Feb 19, 2021
Back up into price congestion levels from Feb 10-16 on EUR PMI data, but USD PMI data is 5h away. New long positions here risk losing those fast 50 data-driven pips quickly.
- bartholemew replied Feb 18, 2021
There's a lot of PMI data on deck in the next 24 hours on both sides of the pond. Fundamentals can bend the technicals. Tread lightly.
- bartholemew replied Feb 15, 2021
EURUSD is weak relative to other USD crosses. Expecting EURUSD to get hit hardest if USD gets an oversold bounce.
- bartholemew replied Feb 12, 2021
So apparently UMich consumer sentiment was the proximate cause/excuse to re-sell an already oversold USD on a Friday. IMO this is getting way out into the paranoid weeds for a market reaction. Sentiment is fickle and often wrong. Look for more ...
- bartholemew replied Feb 4, 2021
Obviously a bit late and risky to pick a short term direction this close to NFP, but would like to see NFP give EURUSD a weak bounce that carries into early next week, up to 1.2060 or so, for fresh multi-day/week shorting opportunities. Still ...
- bartholemew replied Dec 21, 2020
I think this market is just obsessed with getting to 1.25 as soon as possible. Pavlovian dip buying.
- bartholemew replied Dec 21, 2020
One thing I've noticed from years of fx trading is that markets sometimes just get into a mood to just totally disrespect all the support points on the chart.
- bartholemew replied Dec 21, 2020
That's what makes a market as we all know.
- bartholemew replied Dec 21, 2020
My previous comments were dismissed as too "blabbery" or something, so, to simplify: I think the EURUSD rally will fail. The long-term (monthly) chart is tracing out a tentative trend reversal, down to up, and such things must necessarily have a ...
- bartholemew replied Dec 16, 2020
Breaking out on German data release... Now playing: "I Want it All (and I want it now)" - Queen
- bartholemew replied Dec 11, 2020
Central bankers "don't directly target exchange rates," but they are watching. And they've already said that it's a problem. They can't hold back things that are inevitable, but they can jawbone markets for a time.