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-   -   Real or Algo (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/992929-real-or-algo)

moodybot Apr 15, 2020 4:56am | Post# 1

Real or Algo
 
It was suggested that a thread may gain some traction discussing supply/demand ...targets...support/resistance and all nuances there of..
Keep it clean, respect opinions.
Have something to discuss?
Go for it.

If no interest no probs, I’ll close it down.

Added 05/05/2020

For general reference only...George closed the thread...however...he will post when the need arises..
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=874421

moodybot Apr 20, 2020 7:03pm | Post# 2

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Real or Algo, supply and demand, support and resistance or even Cot report.
How did price stop a pip or two away from the target with the real gotcha hiding underneath...would price revisit the () support?

Ancient Alien theorists say yes.
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bluesteele Apr 20, 2020 7:14pm | Post# 3

Real or Algo, supply and demand, support and resistance or even Cot report. How did price stop a pip or two away from the target with the real gotcha hiding underneath...would price revisit the () support? Ancient Alien theorists say yes. {image}
Psychology of the market.
Shhhh...the Algo isn't real

None of its real !
Just a random move

slb Apr 20, 2020 7:29pm | Post# 4

what is i don't know, but someone or something build a scenario to collect our money
like today on euro they collected some $ from me with those moves up down up down until we break

moodybot Apr 20, 2020 7:59pm | Post# 5

what is i don't know, but someone or something build a scenario to collect our money like today on euro they collected some $ from me with those moves up down up down until we break
Thatís the idea.. to take your money in a way that makes the Algo look completely natural.
As Kevin said in the previous post, psychology and there are no random moves.
That chart that I posted happens day in day out, all pairs all time frames.

moodybot Apr 20, 2020 8:10pm | Post# 6

{quote} Psychology of the market. Shhhh...the Algo isn't real None of its real ! Just a random move
The Algo isnít real........

moodybot Apr 20, 2020 11:33pm | Post# 7

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BWilliam Apr 20, 2020 11:45pm | Post# 8

{quote} Psychology of the market. Shhhh...the Algo isn't real None of its real ! Just a random move
I agree with moodybot this occurs on all pairs and timeframe however I don't know if this is "done by a single Algo to deceive and manipulate the mass traders to relieve them off their money".

Thank god that this happens in a predictable fashion that I can exploit, however, it gains nothing for me to explain the cause.

bluesteele Apr 20, 2020 11:57pm | Post# 9

{image}
Great charts Buddy!!

And as always it takes them out with a swift move !

Poor Mr Stops never had a chance.

Im starting to think your Psychic ???

moodybot Apr 20, 2020 11:59pm | Post# 10

{quote} I agree with moodybot this occurs on all pairs and timeframe however I don't know if this is "done by a single Algo to deceive and manipulate the mass traders to relieve them off their money". Thank god that this happens in a predictable fashion that I can exploit, however, it gains nothing for me to explain the cause.

Perhaps the reason why isn't required, just the understanding that the market has a defined mathematical structure that as you say, can be exploited.

BWilliam Apr 21, 2020 12:08am | Post# 11

{quote} Perhaps the reason why isn't required, just the understanding that the market has a defined mathematical structure that as you say, can be exploited.
I agree with this mathematical structure definition. 70% of the trades are executed by algos. Algos execute trades base on coded instructions that's math in nature. By extension, this makes the structure more "regulated within defined limits" compared to prior Algo execution. The higher percentage the algos share of market execution the more regular the market structure. This is the new phenomenon that's good for us traders.

RickM Apr 21, 2020 12:27am | Post# 12

Hi Moodybot

Without doubt we are dealing with a Algorithm that controls the market very tightly. Mathematics proves this without doubt.

Here is how I see it, and what my equity curve proves on my accounts

Does it have intelligence- No
Does it move the market - Yes by creating space
Does it seek targets- Yes itís the result of creating vacuums.

It creates space by fixing the distance price can move on all timeframes on any ONE move. This false resistance encourages traders into placing passive orders into tight groups that are high in density, therefore have weight.
The heaviest pools of liquidity have the largest vacuums of space nearby. - GAPS

The key ingredient on what the Algorithm really is -
ALGORITHM LIMITS PRICE EXPANSION

hint hint

Cheers

moodybot Apr 21, 2020 12:39am | Post# 13

{quote} Great charts Buddy!! And as always it takes them out with a swift move ! Poor Mr Stops never had a chance. Im starting to think your Psychic ???
Mate, my wife knows Iím psychic... Iím always wrong..

BWilliam Apr 21, 2020 12:40am | Post# 14

This is my prediction.

With the influx of the best brains attracted into the Algo segment and the increasing Algo share in execution, there may come a time where future price value can be accurately predicted granting an unfair "insiders info" situation to this few. To the extent that the purpose of this auction market model fails to achieve it's equitable purpose. It will necessitate a replacement model to value the currencies. I am not surprised that gov funded initiatives are already in place. This possibility is not too far off.

moodybot Apr 21, 2020 12:41am | Post# 15

{quote} I agree with this mathematical structure definition. 70% of the trades are executed by algos. Algos execute trades base on coded instructions that's math in nature. By extension, this makes the structure more "regulated within defined limits" compared to prior Algo execution. The higher percentage the algos share of market execution the more regular the market structure. This is the new phenomenon that's good for us traders.
I would go further and suggest every pip move has a reason to be there, 100%.. can I trade that 100%, no, but other parts of the structure, yep.

moodybot Apr 21, 2020 12:44am | Post# 16

Hi Moodybot Without doubt we are dealing with a Algorithm that controls the market very tightly. Mathematics proves this without doubt. Here is how I see it, and what my equity curve proves on my accounts Does it have intelligence- No Does it move the market - Yes by creating space Does it seek targets- Yes itís the result of creating vacuums. It creates space by fixing the distance price can move on all timeframes on any ONE move. This false resistance encourages traders into placing passive orders into tight groups that are high in density, therefore...
Agreed 100% Rick

I need to revisit some of Georges thread as a reminder, but he is absolutely right regarding the intraday and the (less known or thought about) levels or areas.

RickM Apr 21, 2020 1:19am | Post# 17

{quote} Agreed 100% Rick I need to revisit some of Georges thread as a reminder, but he is absolutely right regarding the intraday and the (less known or thought about) levels or areas.
Hi Moodybot

George Aus did tell us how the algo works both in Skype calls and within his posts
Most of us including myself just overlooked his words on expansion and went straight to his target levels and his TMA settings.

It took me 5 months to work it out by removing the TMA’s and applying mathematics.
But basically he is 100% correct.

Cheers

moodybot Apr 21, 2020 1:47am | Post# 18

{quote} Hi Moodybot George Aus did tell us how the algo works both in Skype calls and within his posts Most of us including myself just overlooked his words on expansion and went straight to his target levels and his TMA settings. It took me 5 months to work it out by removing the TMAís and applying mathematics. But basically he is 100% correct. Cheers
I remember him steeping the fib across, proving conclusively the mathematical bias to the market.
But you are right, we just looked at the TMA and targets.

George AUS Apr 21, 2020 9:06pm | Post# 19

GREAT PROJECT ANDY ! ! ! !

TARGETS ,,, TARGETS ,,, TARGETS ! ! !

PSYCHOLOGY APPLICATION ,,, IS THEEEE SECRET ! ! !
In Summary ,,,,
first is ,,,, 98% Psychology ,,,
Then 2% price action and everything else ,,,,,

Just my humble opinion ,,,,

Cheers
George

moodybot Apr 21, 2020 9:32pm | Post# 20

GREAT PROJECT ANDY ! ! ! ! TARGETS ,,, TARGETS ,,, TARGETS ! ! ! PSYCHOLOGY APPLICATION ,,, IS THEEEE SECRET ! ! ! In Summary ,,,, first is ,,,, 98% Psychology ,,, Then 2% price action and everything else ,,,,, Just my humble opinion ,,,, Cheers George

Thanks George...might have to have a refresher with you, but targets are the No.1 application that should be on every chart.
Anything else is just guessing and potluck.

A.

Profitgrowth Apr 22, 2020 12:04am | Post# 21

I agree that the Algo is controllling and manipulating everything, my question is what about the role of banks in the market when they have large currency exchange transactions to complete as well, is this all factored into the way the Algo runs or independent of it?

bottomhigh Apr 22, 2020 2:26am | Post# 22

I agree that the Algo is controllling and manipulating everything, my question is what about the role of banks in the market when they have large currency exchange transactions to complete as well, is this all factored into the way the Algo runs or independent of it?
Depends on how it adds to specific market liquidity, i.e. affects supply and demand, order flow on the exchange. I guess the bank which actively participates in some form supply and demand on an exchange will be examined by algos too.

Nikt Apr 22, 2020 6:26am | Post# 23

{quote} Hi Moodybot George Aus did tell us how the algo works both in Skype calls and within his posts Most of us including myself just overlooked his words on expansion and went straight to his target levels and his TMA settings. It took me 5 months to work it out by removing the TMA’s and applying mathematics. But basically he is 100% correct. Cheers
Expansions changed my day TODAY!

I didn't get them till today and now applying them!And yes I agree it is mathematical relation and price "control" to prevent it from going nuts. Expansions and targets are the new black for me!

Thx for posting this

D

moodybot Apr 22, 2020 7:08am | Post# 24

Had a chat with George today, went over a few items of interest. He sends his regards to all.
I think the most important part of the conversation, to me, was that his charts, method and approach is identical to when I first conversed with him over a year ago. Nothing has changed. He was right about the market then and he is now.
Psychology and targets.
Cheers George.

A.

BWilliam Apr 22, 2020 8:01am | Post# 25

Moodybot, if it's OK with you I recommend this thread for trading strategy.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=993524

moodybot Apr 22, 2020 9:01am | Post# 26

Moodybot, if it's OK with you I recommend this thread for trading strategy. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=993524

This is an open thread, so if a trader can find substance within youíre recommendation then thatís absolutely fine.
I would like to say that as yet I havenít seen anything remotely useful to me written down about trading apart from in Georgeís original thread and of course Zoltans journal. Iím not for once suggesting that some threads donít contain useful information but I have been privileged as a few others have over the last year to an insight into how the market maker (Algo) traps traders...both longs and shorts, trapped at the same time and with the evidence clearly shown on a blank chart.
Most threads are technical and unless the psychological aspect is addressed, I just donít think theyíll stand the test of time.
Personally Iím still getting the hang of the psychological approach, technicals Iím fine with, but one is rarely going to work without the other.
Not looking to step on anyoneís toes, just my own observation and as I said, an open debate.

A.

GMD Apr 22, 2020 12:10pm | Post# 27

Nice thread Moody! Gonna be following it.

I am not a very informed and smart person when it comes to Algos and Maths in trading.. but I do use Fibs in my trading as my main tool for entries and money managment calculations.

I do agree psychology and own discretion in trading is the most important thing.

When you talk about "targets".. you mean own personal targets for the day, week or month?? Let's say as an example 0,25% daily, 1,25% weekly, 5% monthly?

Or you talk about other kind of targets?

GMD

BWilliam Apr 22, 2020 12:59pm | Post# 28

{quote} This is an open thread, so if a trader can find substance within you’re recommendation then that’s absolutely fine. I would like to say that as yet I haven’t seen anything remotely useful to me written down about trading apart from in George’s original thread and of course Zoltans journal. I’m not for once suggesting that some threads don’t contain useful information but I have been privileged as a few others have over the last year to an insight into how the market maker (Algo) traps traders...both longs and shorts, trapped at the same...
Good that you found your strategy with George and Zoltan.

I don't use TA anymore. It's little known value trading that this poster described in his post.
The problem with these areas and why they dont work every time is the institutions will only start to re-accumulate in those areas if they identify that they have value to do so. i.e. they either value the currency with their models to be trading at a discount or a premium. They will never buy or sell unless they have value otherwise they are paying retail prices instead of wholesale and will never be able to make a profit when they offload their stock.

Technical analysis will only get one so far. If one does not know the value of what you are...

copi88 Apr 22, 2020 2:52pm | Post# 29

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{quote} You do realize the post refers to the Equities Market? The Equities Market is highly fundamental in nature, so that is where the idea of "value" comes from. In Forex there is a profitable technical analysis trade approximately every 20-45 minutes. Obviously some are sooner and some last longer and some are more profitable than others, but if you get lucky and price is ranging, there are easily 15-18 profitable trades per day per pair. If you prefer to intraday swing, you can expect 3-8 trades per day per pair. I don't know about higher time...
That analysis was on AUDUSD.

You definitely can be a successful trader using just technical, or just fundamental but then perhaps your win rate will be around 65% if you are very good.
The way I was trained was to use value models in conjunction with fundamentals and then lastly use technical analysis and market timing (volume cycles) to complete the picture. We needed to construct a narrative on why we want to take the trade. Using all these factors win rate goes above 85% and with orderflow analysis the stops can be very small.

My trade on GU this morning:
Fundamental - Asian markets where bullish creating a risk on tone. This will be negative USD. Due to how the bond markets moved overnight I knew there had to be selling on the UK Gilts and therefore this would create buying on the Pound. The Dax and FTSE both opened undervalued against global markets and this buying pressure on them would add to the risk on tone. In addition bonds where overpriced.
Technical - We want to deal at the high volume cycles when the institutions are involved. ie 7am , 8am 13:30-14:30 (LDN time), need to find a confluence of levels where liquidity will exist and lastly we need to observe orderflow.
Value - On my value model I need the white line to be above the red line and for the red line to be divergent from price.

My entry was at the red arrow where there is a convergence of liquidity zones. Its the wholesale price level of 1.2300, the 50% retracement level of the move from the low, and VWAP right at the LDN. Drawdown less that a tick. I can post a pic of the orderflow tomorrow.

First target was in the red box and second at 1.2375

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moodybot Apr 22, 2020 5:45pm | Post# 30

Nice thread Moody! Gonna be following it. I am not a very informed and smart person when it comes to Algos and Maths in trading.. but I do use Fibs in my trading as my main tool for entries and money managment calculations. I do agree psychology and own discretion in trading is the most important thing. When you talk about "targets".. you mean own personal targets for the day, week or month?? Let's say as an example 0,25% daily, 1,25% weekly, 5% monthly? Or you talk about other kind of targets? GMD

Hi GMD

Targets are the lines drawn on my chart in the second post.
They reflect daily/weekly tops and bottoms. I also use H4 for intraday.
How price reacts at these levels is usually interpreted as support and resistance, supply demand etc..
Incorrectly in my view. Personally I believe the Algo sets the turning points as an enticement where stops trailing stops will naturally congregate and as price takes out the stops then that particular target is done, but a new fresh target is left behind. Rinse and repeat.
Price action around these targets is such that longs as well as shorts can and will be taken out, that is all the Algo has to do.
A revisit more than once to a target, sometimes within a tenth of a pip again in my view is a very well calculated move, this then becomes an area of extreme interest to us, George calls it Herd Mentality.

A.

moodybot Apr 22, 2020 6:01pm | Post# 31

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Is this Support and resistance, supply and demand......or just an Algo messing with psychology.
What would a trader think...support. Solid
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moodybot Apr 22, 2020 6:07pm | Post# 32

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Spot the trap.
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BWilliam Apr 22, 2020 8:26pm | Post# 33

{quote} That analysis was on AUDUSD. You definitely can be a successful trader using just technical, or just fundamental but then perhaps your win rate will be around 65% if you are very good. The way I was trained was to use value models in conjunction with fundamentals and then lastly use technical analysis and market timing (volume cycles) to complete the picture. We needed to construct a narrative on why we want to take the trade. Using all these factors win rate goes above 85% and with orderflow analysis the stops can be very small. My trade...
Nice trade copi.

This is a trade call made few days ago. Math based value model allows me to calculate future overvalued and undervalued price targets. For EU overvalued target of 1.0900 market tested it for the last 3 days with closest at 1.08968. Purpose of this post is to hint the thread the bull bias is incorrect.

EA undervalued target of 1.70166 was tested with 1.70169. Purpose of this call is to hint the trader with open trade to take profit.
For EU, the trade can be seen on h1 chart. Price tested Fridays high and 1.0900. Possibly same like Friday fall at the top. For EA, price testing Friday low at 1.70166. will break or not? Not sure, strong level for whole of last week so unlikely to break.
I have made many such value model live calls on this forum. This value model calculates fair value, together with overvalue and undervalue extremes in a continuous fashion for all timescale. Live calls are proof of concept.
(It does not look back at previous high lows in the typical linear manner.)

If average Joe retail trader can devise such a value model, imagine what the best quants do achieve.

George AUS Apr 22, 2020 9:38pm | Post# 34

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Howdy Andy ,,,

My Input and HUMBLE opinion on the so called ALGO running this game ,,,

Would like to share something we discussed in detail yesterday in our conversation ,,,

Here it is ,,,,,

I truly believe ,,,
Once a trader can master the 3 points ,,,
They will have mastered this game ! ! !

Cheers
George
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moodybot Apr 22, 2020 10:16pm | Post# 35

Howdy Andy ,,, My Input and HUMBLE opinion on the so called ALGO running this game ,,, Would like to share something we discussed in detail yesterday in our conversation ,,, Here it is ,,,,, I truly believe ,,, Once a trader can master the 3 points ,,, They will have mastered this game ! ! ! Cheers George {image}
Hey George

Few would disagree with you, I certainly cant.

Thanks for taking the time.

A.

moodybot Apr 22, 2020 10:22pm | Post# 36

{quote} Nice trade copi. This is a trade call made few days ago. Math based value model allows me to calculate future overvalued and undervalued price targets. For EU overvalued target of 1.0900 market tested it for the last 3 days with closest at 1.08968. Purpose of this post is to hint the thread the bull bias is incorrect. EA undervalued target of 1.70166 was tested with 1.70169. Purpose of this call is to hint the trader with open trade to take profit. {quote} I have made many such value model live calls on this forum. This value model...
Thanks for the post, food for thought.

I like the idea of working out a fair price, and following that overvalued undervalued price at targets.
Will look into it, might have to dig my old nemesis..(excel) out of the cupboard.

Cheers.

A.

SunnyCoast Apr 22, 2020 10:36pm | Post# 37

Howdy Andy ,,, My Input and HUMBLE opinion on the so called ALGO running this game ,,, Would like to share something we discussed in detail yesterday in our conversation ,,, Here it is ,,,,, I truly believe ,,, Once a trader can master the 3 points ,,, They will have mastered this game ! ! ! Cheers George {image}
Nice to see you posting again George.

Hope you are looking after your health and yourself and your family.

Warmest Regards
Anthony

whitesta Apr 22, 2020 11:14pm | Post# 38

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Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus visits. There are tools to use but its 90% psychology to know what these big players are doing. Never easy but few on this thread have done it. For me its still a long way away I guess. Was having a look at the USD/JPY chart. Decent zone with a few visits but still trying hard to understand when this will be broken clearly to get to the next target. Subscribed to see if we can get some gold nuggets from you guys.
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SunnyCoast Apr 22, 2020 11:33pm | Post# 39

Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus...
Hi Whitesta. It looks like you are well on your way and probably don't need to read this but just wanted to share a post from George that really helped me and still does.

THE TARGET THEORY SETTING TARGETS ========================================================= Howdy all ,,, As i stated in the very last post regarding having all of the theories I wanted to share here ,,,, IT WAS THE END OF WHAT WILL BE SHARED ON THE THEORIES ,,,,, SO ,,,, I will try as much as i can ,,,, To keep fine tuning day by day as i see fit ,, when i am reading through posts from the different Family members ,,,, Also from time to time ,, I will be posting added important information ,,, Which is ,,,, what i am doing here today ,,, =================================================================================...

BWilliam Apr 22, 2020 11:56pm | Post# 40

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Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus...
There are people who search for this channel and secret settings, here's one. I modified the original based on the settings of my deceased buddy. Hope this helps someone out there.
#MTF Force channel v1.0.ex4


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