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-   -   Simple Monthly System (see attached calculator) (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=980096)

4ecstasy Feb 11, 2020 6:25pm | Post# 1

Simple Monthly System (see attached calculator)
 
2 Attachment(s)
This system is based on the range of the first two trading days of the month, for a 5 week trading week.
Logic: The first two trading days of the month often form the high or the low of the month.

This is called "the range" from here on.

  1. Find the highest high and the lowest low of the first two days of the month.
  2. Entry: Open a buy order at 15% of the high and a short order at 15% break of the low.
  3. Take Profit: 100% of the range.
  4. Stop loss: 10% below the range for long; 10% above the range for short.
  5. Optional: Break Even, close half the position at TP. Close the other half at the end of the month.
  6. Optional: Range must be at least 100 pips.
  7. Optional: Delete opposite order once a trade opens. However, if a trade opens, I do not delete the opposite order

See attached calculator and example trade.
This is an improvement on my previous system.
Sangui made an EA for the previous system. Thanks Sangui!

If you have a Sunday bar for the range, combine it with Monday.
Click to Enlarge

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Calculator.xlsx


4ecstasy Feb 11, 2020 7:06pm | Post# 2

2019 Sept-Dec. Some months have multiple trades. This is a manual backtest on the daily chart.

GBPUSD: 3 wins, 1 loss. 455 pips
GBPAUD: 4 wins, 1 loss. 1119 pips
GBPJPY: 3 wins, 1 loss. 405 pips. No Nov trade due to small range.
GBPNZD: 5 wins, 2 losses. 901 pips.
GBPCHF: 3 wins, 2 losses. 336 pips. No Nov trade due to small range.
GBPCAD: 4 wins, 2 losses. 523 pips.

Total pips: 3739
Average pips per month: 934.75

An EA for more accurate testing would be appreciated.

Ican2020 Feb 12, 2020 12:42am | Post# 3

Seconded

oceanic Feb 12, 2020 5:14am | Post# 4

This system is based on the range of the first two trading days of the month, for a 5 week trading week. Logic: The first two trading days of the month often form the high or the low of the month. This is called "the range" from here on. Find the highest high and the lowest low of the first two days of the month. Entry: Open a buy order at 15% of the high and a short order at 15% break of the low. Take Profit: 100% of the range. Stop loss: 10% below the range for long; 10% above the range for short. Optional: Break Even, close half the position...
Thank you 4ecstasy for sharing your idea with the community.
It really looks promising.
However, there some calculations I am not getting right. Kindly help with chart illustrations following:

  1. Entry: Open a buy order at 15% of the high and a short order at 15% break of the low.
  2. Take Profit: 100% of the range.
  3. Stop loss: 10% below the range for long; 10% above the range for short

Thank you.


4ecstasy Feb 12, 2020 11:23am | Post# 5

1 Attachment(s)
Oceanic...
Entry: Open a buy order at 15% of the high and a short order at 15% break of the low.
Formula: Highest high + (Range * .15)=Entry Price
In the attached: 1.23393+(.0135*.15)=1.23596

Could you use the calculator for the others? I think you can see the formula in the calculator.
Click to Enlarge

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4ecstasy Feb 12, 2020 12:13pm | Post# 6

1 Attachment(s)
2017 results for the GBP. GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPJPY, GBPNZD, GBPCHF, GBPCAD
3845 pips total for the whole year.
I manually tested this year because I knew it would be a difficult year for this system, but the year ended in a net gain, averaging 320 pips per month.

See attached. NA means that there was no trade. I waited on some months for a few bars if...
1. It was a Monday or a Tuesday. I'd wait until the Tuesday completed.
2. The range was smaller than 100 pips. On one occasion it took 4 or 5 days, so I didn't manually test that month.

Also, if I lost the first trade, I would BE and close half on a winning trade that same month and close the other half at the end of the month.

My previous system (manually tested; and Sangui EA tested) performed poorly in 2017. Since this system only uses the first two days of the month, it improved greatly.

I'll try to manually test 2018, but it would be nice to have an EA ...
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founaud Feb 12, 2020 3:52pm | Post# 7

Hi!,

Thank you for your system. It looks promising, and I'm going to give it a try.
I donīt really understand how often do you open positions each month. Do you open a position everytime the price reaches the BUY and SELL level during the month?
When did you close the trades in 2019 and 2018: Everytime the price reached TP, or did you closed half position and let the other half run until the end of the month?
Have you tried this system in EUR pairs?

Thanks for your support!
Regards

4ecstasy Feb 12, 2020 4:45pm | Post# 8

Hi!, Thank you for your system. It looks promising, and I'm going to give it a try. I donīt really understand how often do you open positions each month. Do you open a position everytime the price reaches the BUY and SELL level during the month? When did you close the trades in 2019 and 2018: Everytime the price reached TP, or did you closed half position and let the other half run until the end of the month? Have you tried this system in EUR pairs? Thanks for your support! Regards
Great question.

In my manual backtesting, I opened trades every single time it reached the buy and sell levels.
If the first position of the month reached TP, I closed it all. If the first trade hit the SL, the next trade of the same month, I closed half at BE and closed the other half at the close of the month.

I haven't manually tested it on EUR pairs.

Cossy Feb 13, 2020 12:57am | Post# 9

This system is based on the range of the first two trading days of the month, for a 5 week trading week. Logic: The first two trading days of the month often form the high or the low of the month. This is called "the range" from here on. Find the highest high and the lowest low of the first two days of the month. Entry: Open a buy order at 15% of the high and a short order at 15% break of the low. Take Profit: 100% of the range. Stop loss: 10% below the range for long; 10% above the range for short. Optional: Break Even, close half the position...


Interesting system, I followed the other system and this looks like an improvement. I started testing it on USDCAD but one question on my mind is the range. Some currency pairs usually have a lower range and was wondering if it would still be good to use this system on them. Secondly, if the first order is opened and hits TP or SL, is the opposite position still valid to enter the market within the same month irrespective of the number of times it goes back to entry?

Robertstarc Feb 13, 2020 3:04am | Post# 10

Thank you for your valuable advice. This is very useful for new traders like us.

4ecstasy Feb 13, 2020 6:11pm | Post# 11

1 Attachment(s)
2018 manual results attached. I randomly decided to close half the position at TP and let the rest ride. For 2018 that performed best, as I tested it against closing the entire position at the first TP.

Often, I've found that if I close half the position at TP 100% of range, then the second half hits the BE, leaving sometimes hundreds of pips on the table.
Perhaps the next TP should be 200% of the range.

Also of note is that the win rate is great, 68% for 2018, winning 67 out of 98 trades.

Also, you'd do well not to open during the last week of the month.
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4ecstasy Feb 13, 2020 6:12pm | Post# 12

{quote} Interesting system, I followed the other system and this looks like an improvement. I started testing it on USDCAD but one question on my mind is the range. Some currency pairs usually have a lower range and was wondering if it would still be good to use this system on them. Secondly, if the first order is opened and hits TP or SL, is the opposite position still valid to enter the market within the same month irrespective of the number of times it goes back to entry?
Please reread the thread. I've answered those questions above.

Erebus Feb 13, 2020 7:26pm | Post# 13

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} Please reread the thread. I've answered those questions above.
Oh come on Mummy



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GearZero Feb 13, 2020 10:35pm | Post# 14

Hi. Nice system you have here. To be honest, i really like a simple system like you got here, i have several system just like you.
i will try to implement this system in other pairs and we will see if there are any improvement to that to make it perfect.

Thanks man, Keep it simple.

HappyMan Feb 14, 2020 4:31am | Post# 15

Hey 4ectasy,

Thanks for sharing your strategy!

If I reading it right, GJ is a candidate for going long, unless the huge range of the 2nd trade day is a problem. What would you say?

4ecstasy Feb 14, 2020 10:23am | Post# 16

Right, traders of this system on GJ would be long at 143.430 near the high of yesterday.

Ican2020 Feb 14, 2020 11:25am | Post# 17

Right, traders of this system on GJ would be long at 143.430 near the high of yesterday.
Just take info for first two days of every month, use calculator and place order, this looks nice and stress free.
I will look at past months manually this weekend.
Thanks for sharing your system
I

4ecstasy Feb 14, 2020 4:33pm | Post# 18

1 Attachment(s)
2019 manual test completed. 570 pips per month on average.
I included EURUSD, but didn't require a 100 pip range.
I randomly moved the stop to BE and closed half, letting the rest ride.
Sometimes I did, sometimes I didn't.

I've tested 2017-2019, only 2019 has EURUSD.
2017: Average 320 pips per month. 3 losing months.
2018: Average 574 pips per month. 1 losing month.
2019: Average 572 pips per month. 4 losing months.

2016 looks volatile. Should be interesting. Stay tuned.
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herewego Feb 14, 2020 4:52pm | Post# 19

Very nice work indeed, and a nice addition to my strategies. Many thanks for sharing

jpfalls Feb 14, 2020 6:20pm | Post# 20

Thanks, 4ecstasy for this new thread. I followed your previous offering and like the looks of this one, too.
Will be testing it and following...


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