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-   -   How do you time your exits? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=973992)

LloydOz Jan 16, 2020 5:40am | Post# 41

{quote}I practice continuous process improvement, so over the years I have learned many things about indicators, charts, and trading systems. In my business plan, I could care less what the next candle will do as I trade sample sizes, not candlesticks. In fact, my trading method is so advanced, I do not need to see any candles to place my trades.
And lo, let it be known that I kneel and bow at the alter of dkrock for infinite wisdom imparted doth therein.

TudorIoan Jan 16, 2020 5:45am | Post# 42

{quote} And lo, let it be known that I kneel and bow at the alter of dkrock for infinite wisdom imparted doth therein.
Oh, I try to keep up with his wisdom, he keeps editing that wisdom, hard to follow
I guess we'll soon turn this thread in ...a place where we have fun

edit: no offence, Rock !

TudorIoan Jan 16, 2020 6:28am | Post# 43

{quote} Oh, I try to keep up with his wisdom, he keeps editing that wisdom, hard to follow I guess we'll soon turn this thread in ...a place where we have fun edit: no offence, Rock !
As I said, it's going to be fun

BWilliam Jan 16, 2020 6:35am | Post# 44

{quote} Sorry, but I don't understand your post. First you say why trade something 50-50, then you said it doesn't change, which would mean it is 50-50. What do you mean? Each new trade consists of new traders with new names, new lot sizes, and new reasons for entering. Nothing the same about it. That is why it is ridiculous to trade the last trade all over again by drawing lines connecting highs and lows, LOL. It is a NEW trade. You have no idea where the high or low will be. BUT, you can trade the direction, which is a whole different approach....
1st paragraph - Isn't it sensible that if the odds of winning is 50-50 or worse it make no sense to engage in this business? Isn't it also true whether it's 50-50 or better or worse differ from trader to trader, it's an individual thing ?

2nd paragraph - Many members on this forum wrote that the market changes with time or at least that's what they believe. I think the market is the same since the time when there was a trading market, nothings changed. Todays market is the same as yesterday and the same shall be for tomorrow. High percentage losers and a few winners that will never change. Plenty losers whose percentage is worse that 50-50 and few winners whose percentage is better than 50-50. Explains for the brokers stats and the posts on this thread.

VinceDunajs Jan 16, 2020 6:53am | Post# 45

You need a trading plan that implements a precise exit strategy to close out trades. One of the best exit strategies for me is the Stop-Loss trailing since you can never be sure of how long a trend will last. For this strategy, there are at least a couple of ways to play it. You either go with no targets at all, or you take profit on half the position. Depends on everyones strategies and what they're comfortable with.

TudorIoan Jan 16, 2020 6:55am | Post# 46

1 Attachment(s)
Hi, folks ! I got a new one. A riddle this time.
Just take a look on this chart situation.
How's your analysis look like? Come on ! What's gonna be next ? Head or tail ?!?

Come on, gimmie your best shot ! Can you justify it ? ...it would be real fun !
Click to Enlarge

Name: gamblers_fallacy.png
Size: 180 KB

Nikl Jan 16, 2020 8:29am | Post# 47

{quote} Hi, Nikl, I'm very interested on how you can increase the win rate from 33% to 45%. I'll write a book explaing what happens just if you can do that, ...it would worth my effort, honestly Note, the momentum continuation is not something you can rely on. Because it obeys to the same 50-50 universal rule. Meaning it may continue or it may not ...by the same probability. Simple put, the trend (or counter-trend) is only about 50% your friend... the rest, is not your friend So I'm all eyes and ears to any solid verifiable idea which...
Hi TudorIoan
I'm not sure why I havenít attempted this previously but I spent a couple of hours this afternoon backtesting a few basic entry criteria (MA crosses, Time based entries etc) with RR of 1:2 and bugger me, they all had a win rate of 33%! (give or take a few %)

turnip15 Jan 16, 2020 8:58am | Post# 48

Hi, folks ! I got a new one. A riddle this time. Just take a look on this chart situation. How's your analysis look like? Come on ! What's gonna be next ? Head or tail ?!? Come on, gimmie your best shot ! Can you justify it ? ...it would be real fun ! {image}
Dear gott -No one knows where price will go next. Forget your special equations, moving averages, Elliot etc. Price is where it is at in the here and NOW. Anything else is lagging.
The upshot is you have to guess, even a best guess using your favourite ma etc. THEN you have to manage the trade - that means you. Money/trade management is key. The rest or simply means to best guess.
So - in your picture post you guess direction using a coin or the latest signals/system and then you then manage the trade.

TudorIoan Jan 16, 2020 9:10am | Post# 49

{quote} Dear gott -No one knows where price will go next. Forget your special equations, moving averages, Elliot etc. Price is where it is at in the here and NOW. Anything else is lagging. The upshot is you have to guess, even a best guess using your favourite ma etc. THEN you have to manage the trade - that means you. Money/trade management is key. The rest or simply means to best guess. So - in your picture post you guess direction using a coin or the latest signals/system and then you then manage the trade.
Where you at, buddy? My demonstration proves that no one really knows where price will go next.
The trade managing illusion is the problem People use to believe they can stand a chance by a wise position management ...which is proved wrong, sorry to disappoint many

turnip15 Jan 16, 2020 9:42am | Post# 50

{quote} Where you at, buddy? My demonstration proves that no one really knows where price will go next. The trade managing illusion is the problem People use to believe they can stand a chance by a wise position management ...which is proved wrong, sorry to disappoint many
Tudor -Sorry -the comment of mine was not aimed at you per se but to those that pontificate about "systems" and 'grails"- I should have made it clearer.
I agree with your post whole heartedly and apologise for any confusion caused by my poorly written post

BWilliam Jan 16, 2020 9:51am | Post# 51

The trade managing illusion is the problem People use to believe they can stand a chance by a wise position management ...which is proved wrong, sorry to disappoint many
You are wrong people still believe in wise position management that turns around 50-50 or worse odds, still do to a large extent of this illusory magic that's the only hope.

TudorIoan Jan 16, 2020 9:57am | Post# 52

{quote} You are wrong people still believe in wise position management that turns around 50-50 or worse odds, still do to a large extent of this illusory magic that's the only hope.
True. And I don't say they don't believe


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