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-   -   To be successful... cut out the noise (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=970957)

viptrading Feb 25, 2020 3:16pm | Post# 221

{quote} Yes I see, it's a shame, because the attitude is just totally wrong, we can help others, people come & go, a few will stick it out & actually be profitable. I try to back everything I'm saying with results. The way I trade may not be for everyone. Everyone is different. Some people maybe doing this all day long, they have more time then I do. But surely we can learn from one another. What might not work for me might work for someone else. It's good what you do, successful or not successful, that's not the point at least you're showing and...
Respect. I am always still learning on my path to success in this industry. I would like to pick your brain a bit if you don't mind.
How long have you considered yourself a "successful" trader?
What books or insight has helped you to achieve your success?
What is your goal with trading? Do you plan on managing a fund one day? Or are you just in it to trade for yourself and your own money?

I'm always interested to learn from those who have achieved prolonged success in this field.

j12 Feb 25, 2020 3:49pm | Post# 222

{quote} Respect. I am always still learning on my path to success in this industry. I would like to pick your brain a bit if you don't mind. How long have you considered yourself a "successful" trader? What books or insight has helped you to achieve your success? What is your goal with trading? Do you plan on managing a fund one day? Or are you just in it to trade for yourself and your own money? I'm always interested to learn from those who have achieved prolonged success in this field.
Sure I'll try my best to answer.

Do I consider myself a successful trader....I don't know how I can answer that. I have been doing this approximately 11/12 years, first 8 years or so I went through a lot of emotions, similar to what most of us do. Only now for the last 4 years have seen constant growth. By constant I mean my account actually grows in %. Pips mean nothing other then how big the move in a market you can capture. % is the most important thing.

Books or insights... I've probably spent 1000s of hours on here or Google, looking for something that'll give me a winning formula, give me an edge of some sort. Spent so many hours talking with my mate John in the office, on my lunch, over WhatsApp. Probably tried every system in the systems threads, so many EAs, trade copiers, signal providers the list goes on....I can say non of them worked for me. Not that they don't work, I don't know. Maybe I just don't have the correct skill set to make them work. But it all helps build up knowledge.

My trading goal... I've said that quite a few times on this thread, I want about 3.5-4%+ a month. I'm happy with that.

I don't think I'll trade a fund. Just because I don't need the stress. For now I'm happy just doing what I'm doing. I risk my own money, if I lose it's only mine. At times I think people risk money they can not afford to lose. No one wants to lose money, but I mens people risk money that if they lost would have a substantial effect on their lives. I've been in almost 70% drawdown, a lot of people would not be able to handle this.

I don't use forex for an income, my circumstances changed about 5 years ago. I no longer consider this as a source of income. In fact I've never had forex as a source of income. The time I actually did have dreams of earning big money in FX, the time I actually needed money, FX did not work for me. I lost some I, gained some, a cycle. But could never get any sort of consistency. That's the most important thing in any of this. CONSISTENCY

Can you use this as a source of income, well yes, but you need to be mentally prepared that there will be times, weeks, months that you'll be in drawdown, deep drawdown. The question is, can you go through periods like this without taking a wage??

Now I just see this as a savings account, how much is the bank paying me interest on my money compared to my fx account. I can 100% say, in just 1 trade I can earn more in FX then what the bank pays me in 12 months. Can I pay my bills? Probably.

I hope this helps

Regards

J

viptrading Feb 25, 2020 4:45pm | Post# 223

Thanks for the response. I have a similar story to you when it comes to trading. I only now have started to become consistently profitable, and I still have a long way to go before I reach my goals.

My goal is quite different than yours though. I do one day hope to make trading a full time income. Not just Forex but multiple markets. I think that is the key, that is the holy grail imho. Being able to identify opportunities across all markets. There are not always good opportunities in Forex, and in fact a lot of the time the market is stuck in a range and not going anywhere. That's why imo when opportunities come you need to go big to make it worth it. Making 1000% from one trade isn't probably going to happen with Forex but you can achieve 100% just off one trade if you get in at the right time risking around 10% to do it.

It really is all relative, and I think that your goal depends a lot on your account size. If you only have 1k in your account your going to be more willing to take bigger risks in order to get to 10k, or 100k, 1m etc. Then at that point you may only want to make 1% per week or per month to be happy. So draw-down is entirely dependent on your account size. This is why when many new traders ask what a good dd is or a good % to aim for, the obvious answer is try to achieve the lowest dd possible with achieving the highest return possible, relative to your account size.

The biggest funds in the world aim for about 20% per year but they are trading billions, and their trades move the market, so at that point trading becomes much more complicated. For retailers though, making 20% per month is entirely possible, and doable if you know what to look for.

GMD Feb 25, 2020 4:57pm | Post# 224

{quote} Hey yes that's correct, it's not impossible... Regards J
Yeah, might be possible... But how much are you risking to achieve that?

At least I know I might not be able to do so.

Regards
GMD

viptrading Feb 25, 2020 6:11pm | Post# 225

A good trader should be able to at the very least keep their drawdown to the same level of their profit. Meaning if u have a Max dd of 20%. Your ROI should be 20%.

Then you start compounding and raising your risk per trade, so even though your drawdown remains the same, your ROI will increase.

This way a good trader can achieve 240% return with 20-30% drawdown. You can scale that up or down depending on risk.

If your drawdown is more than your profit then your strategy needs improvement. That's how I see it anyway.

20% per month is definitely achievable but if you have to risk your account to do it's not worth it.

Robertstarc Feb 27, 2020 9:12pm | Post# 226

What confuses me is why do people put so many indicators on charts? What is the actual indicator telling them? Do they even know? Or do they think they know & it's giving them an edge? I see some charts with about 10 indicators on, I need to take 2 tablets after just looking at them, gosh.

tim12 Feb 28, 2020 1:09am | Post# 227

What confuses me is why do people put so many indicators on charts? What is the actual indicator telling them? Do they even know? Or do they think they know & it's giving them an edge? I see some charts with about 10 indicators on, I need to take 2 tablets after just looking at them, gosh.
Thats helps them bring accuracy to their forecasts. You'll be able to do that too eventually.

joyny Feb 28, 2020 2:45am | Post# 228

2 Attachment(s)
What confuses me is why do people put so many indicators on charts? What is the actual indicator telling them? Do they even know? Or do they think they know & it's giving them an edge? I see some charts with about 10 indicators on, I need to take 2 tablets after just looking at them, gosh.
If you use an indicator or bunch of them then you MUST use an EA. Without EA using indicators is so wrong... If you are going to use any indicator and base decisions solely on indicator then you MUST backtest that indicator for at least 10 years history to get the best parameters because each symbol has different parameters that have worked at least in the past.

Imagine.. you decide to use an indicator and trade manual. What parameters? Read in some forum and believe? Maybe will have some 10 positive deals but in the longterm without proper backtests, you don't know the best setup.

For example, look this USDJPY Bollinger Bands based EA backtested 20 years, 3600 deals, 64% positive, recovery factor 14, max drawdown 66 USD, profit 959 USD. When you see something is working stable 20 years... then you can decide.

Click to Enlarge

Name: usdjpy_boilinger_spike_20years.png
Size: 71 KB

2000_USDJPY_BOILINGER_recovery_14.31_dd_67_profit_959.xlsx

What illusion you have when picking up an indicator for manual trading and hope it will work out for you without proper backtesting?

Anything is fluctuating. Even if you found super good EA setup for any indicator (or set of N indicators - does not make big difference from statistic viewpoint) - it still will have periods when it is "working" and when "not working". So you need to find out at least 10 EAs setups and run them on 1 account to compensate fluctuations and even then be ready to survive some drawdown. so better to have N accounts with 10EAs various setups on each. It is not possible with manual trading.

biDc Feb 28, 2020 11:11am | Post# 229

This thread is interesting and I hope it keeps going. I never thought about trading using weekly time frame but now I need to think through it. The biggest lesson here for me is aiming for realistic return such as 20-30% a year instead of thinking I can shoot for 100%+ consistently. This is coincidental because recently I picked up options trading aiming to target 2-3% monthly return. Before I was always aiming for the insane 300%+ plus plays (gamble) and losing all my money.

j12 Feb 28, 2020 11:15am | Post# 230

This thread is interesting and I hope it keeps going. I never thought about trading using weekly time frame but now I need to think through it. The biggest lesson here for me is aiming for realistic return such as 20-30% a year instead of thinking I can shoot for 100%+ consistently. This is coincidental because recently I picked up options trading aiming to target 2-3% monthly return. Before I was always aiming for the insane 300%+ plus plays (gamble) and losing all my money.
Hey

Must think that if you're going to do the 20/30%+ a year is very realistic, 2/3%+ monthly minimum you can do it. I've finished my month, this month was 6.4%+. Which I'm very happy with. It'll help me with the January month where I made 0.01%+ so averages out. Consistency is the key...

Regards

J

j12 Feb 28, 2020 11:17am | Post# 231

{quote} If you use an indicator or bunch of them then you MUST use an EA. Without EA using indicators is so wrong... If you are going to use any indicator and base decisions solely on indicator then you MUST backtest that indicator for at least 10 years history to get the best parameters because each symbol has different parameters that have worked at least in the past. Imagine.. you decide to use an indicator and trade manual. What parameters? Read in some forum and believe? Maybe will have some 10 positive deals but in the longterm without proper...
Good Post, I stopped using EAs a long time ago. I'm not saying they don't work, but they just don't suit me or my trading style.

Regards

J

tiborf71 Feb 28, 2020 12:31pm | Post# 232

This thread is interesting and I hope it keeps going. I never thought about trading using weekly time frame but now I need to think through it. The biggest lesson here for me is aiming for realistic return such as 20-30% a year instead of thinking I can shoot for 100%+ consistently. This is coincidental because recently I picked up options trading aiming to target 2-3% monthly return. Before I was always aiming for the insane 300%+ plus plays (gamble) and losing all my money.
300% a year is not impossible.
it is not through gambling.
if I want to be very strict, I'd say it's up to you.

tiborf71 Feb 28, 2020 12:53pm | Post# 233

{quote} 300% a year is not impossible. it is not through gambling. if I want to be very strict, I'd say it's up to you.
this result is unattainable using the traditional old method.

biDc Feb 28, 2020 1:06pm | Post# 234

{quote} this result is unattainable using the traditional old method.
I don't think it's impossible because I believe there are people out there that have done it. My thoughts are it's not sustainable. The way I see it, if someone can return 200-300% annually consistently, it's not long before they are the richest man on the planet. Obviously you run into issues such as liquidity that would limit growth. However given the liquidity pool in FX market, I think one can easily become billionaires with that kind of return. Now maybe they do exist and I am wrong, what do I know.

Then the second thought is if someone is making 200-300% a year, what are they doing here at FF? If I have a million dollar account and returning 3-4 million a year, I'd be out enjoying life and not worrying about what people think or do in an online forum.

Just my 0.02c ..

tiborf71 Feb 28, 2020 1:11pm | Post# 235

{quote} I don't think it's impossible because I believe there are people out there that have done it. My thoughts are it's not sustainable. The way I see it, if someone can return 200-300% annually consistently, it's not long before they are the richest man on the planet. Obviously you run into issues such as liquidity that would limit growth. However given the liquidity pool in FX market, I think one can easily become billionaires with that kind of return. Now maybe they do exist and I am wrong, what do I know. Then the second thought is if someone...
I think many are just at the beginning of the road.
but 200-300% is possible.

BWilliam Feb 28, 2020 1:16pm | Post# 236

{quote} I think many are just at the beginning of the road. but 200-300% is possible.
300% a day is also possible.

Even if low target of 5% a month is also gambling.

5% roi can still be equally unsustainable.

High % return does not automatically make it more gambling.

The rate of return % is not a measure of the gambling content.

So long as you trade without edge, it's gambling, risky and unsustainable whatever that %.

tiborf71 Feb 28, 2020 1:24pm | Post# 237

{quote} 300% a day is also possible. Even if low target of 5% a month is also gambling. 5% roi can still be equally unsustainable. High % return does not automatically make it more gambling. The rate of return % is not a measure of the gambling content. So long as you trade without edge, it's gambling, risky and unsustainable whatever that %.
of course it all depends on your strategy.
of course, the traditional approach is not feasible.
macd RSI .........

tiborf71 Mar 8, 2020 10:30am | Post# 238

Many times, very smart people neither can find a solution.
because profitable trading requires a certain skill, talent.

j12 Mar 8, 2020 10:52am | Post# 239

Many times, very smart people neither can find a solution. because profitable trading requires a certain skill, talent.
Of course 100% correct, people tend to panic as soon as something goes against them...

j12 Mar 9, 2020 11:09am | Post# 240

I wonder how many accounts got blow this morning.....????


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