Well, I have been asked many times these days since I started to publish my TE to share with the people my strategy, is quite interesting when people see numbers like +900% they start to become crazy thinking someone found the HolyGrail combination of indicators that can be automated in a EA to become rich in 1 week without any effort at all... Let me tell you this is far from reality...
I'm not going to tell you that I'm an experienced trader that has been trading for over a decade and that I have blown several accounts until I found this "super system" that would be also far from reality, I always traded small accounts and I use trading just like a hobby, I have 0 respect for the market because first, the money I'm "investing" is not money I need, it's just money I can afford to lose or that instead of buying a new Airsoft gun (Yup I love Airsoft), I put it in my account and start trading this money instead of wasting time with a Demo account and second and the most important part, I have a really good job and my expectations are not living from trading in close, mid or even mid-long term, who knows, maybe some day I have a 100k€ account and I can consider it, but honestly, I just want to live a normal live without having to worry about the money, and this is something I already have.
I have been trading for almost 3 years now and I spent as I think almost everyone the first 1 or almost 2 years just looking for the perfect combination of Indicators, hundreds of them, then EAs, then strategies... Everything just a waste of time, it was until I spent some time learning and studying technical analysis, price action and the very basics when I understood that I could drop those nasty indicators and have almost a clean chart where I could see with my naked eyes what was happening in the market.
And trust me, you just need to know
- support and resistenance
- market structure
And something I want to learn now is proper eliott wave analysis.
Now I'm just using a couple of indicators, visual tools that help me to understand and see psychological levels that may act as dynamic support / resistances (For example and EMA) These are:
- EMA 50
- Weekly Pivot Point
- Daily Pivot Point
Something also important that helped me reduce my overtrading was to uninstall mt4 from my computer and just have it in my mobile device, as in my phone I don't have the tools to complete an analysis I avoided the stupid trades you take when you are bored in the computer and you just see oportunities where they are not, this reduced my overtrading A LOT and now I'm just using Tradingview for my analysis.
And then a very important thing here, I don't use Stop Loss, I recover my trades manually so if this triggers you, you can just stop reading, go to any other post in this forum and let me alone in my crazyness, I know I'm risking 100% of my account in every trade without SL, I have accepted it time ago and I like it, nothing else to discuss here.
Here I will try to post my trades, maybe not all of them and try to explain why I took them, hopefully you will see that what I do is not magic and there is some sort of logic on what I do and hopefully, this will help you to start dropping the indicators and improve your trading.
Let's see if I don't regret starting this post! And to avoid that I have some rules.
- I'm not going to directly spoonfeed you, I will delete posts of questions you can find in babypips or by spending 5 minutes on google.
- I'm not going to allow any screenshot of a trading screen with more than Daily Pivot, EMA and Weekly Pivot there as Indicators.
- I'm not going to explain you when you should take the trade or not, when to take profit or where to put the SL if you want it.
- I will be editing this rules when I please.
Hope you a good day
Subscribed good luck, i like to see new things . Someone else pointed out the same that you have mention inside here Steve Burns!
One trade I took today, now let's see how it evolves...
AUDUSD, price was compressing after an extended upside move, I want to look for the pullback, price broke the triangle to the downside and I think that trendline will hold. You can also see Weekly Pivot held the price to the pip, smarter trade could have been waiting price to crearly break it.
If trade goes my way I will be looking to exit around the 50% - 61% retracement, there is also a Round Number there that could stop the price and resume the uptrend which means a new trading oportunity after closing our short
Huge movement on AUDUSD due to news, price reached 61% fib extension of previous move, and I shorted at that level. Good supply and demand zone, Fibo extension an 2 candles forming wicks.
We need to be aware that we are shorting in an uptrend, so our TP has to be adjusted accordingly, 38%fib retracement was a good level to exit for me, if price continues down, I don't care, already banked profits and next trade is waiting around the corner.
nice work J1mm! If i got you right, you are using basic trend lines with support and resistance lines looking for confluences? so which one confirms which? what i would like to know is which do you draw first?
First of all when I look at a chart I need to understand what is happening in the pair I'm looking at, is the pair healthy trending? Meaning that you can clearly identify the waves and how nicely is reacting to key levels, is the pair a bit chunky or ranging? or is it just forming some sort of triangle?
Then I look for trendlines, let me ilustrate a bit with the example above, as AUDUSD worked perfectly last weeks.
From beginning to last, you can see AUDUSD on the H1 broke the Trendline of this weak trend it formed, this should be for you like an alert, "hey, something is happening there, trend may be changing".
Then you have a new high created, as the previous trend high was taken out, following market structure you can automatically tell yourself, if price made a new high and trend is changing, what is the next? A higher low.
So we know, that based on our analysis, the next thing price should do is a higher low, now we need to identify, where it will do it? Time to identify a good key level.
Then I draw my fibonacci, from bottom to high and I can see 2 good zones, the first one between 50% and 61% retracement.
The second zone at 78% retracement (In case first entry gets stopped out, but remember, I'm crazy I don't use stops XD)
So let's say you put an entry at the level, a pending order, you don't even need to be in front of the computer, SL below 61% (I would have put it even tighter, but let's be conservative) that leaves you with a healty 1:4 RR
Tighter SL would leave you with a higher RR, target will be always a new high, and nothing better for a new high that Fibonacci 27% Extension.
Let's say that you missed the entry explained above, because you didn't see it clear, you wanted more confirmations or whatever, then you had a new entry later on:
You can easily connect the price 2 previous touches to find the 3rd touch entry on the Daily TL.
And as an extra confirmation, let's find a level where the trend could be resumed back up again, so we use our loved fibonacci XD
61% fib and previous highs acting now as resistance, crazy how everything connects, right?
You want stops and targets, quite easy, SL below next Fibonacci level, target 27% extension again, another 1:5 RR, quite healthy, right? Now just investigate what win ratio you need with this Risk Reward ratios and look at the charts how many times this works.
And you can see price smashed -27 and stopped at -61 huge trend during holidays season. and you may ask youself... but why price on AUDUSD stopped at -61%? Look at the Daily:
Price made a high, price made a higher low and rejected on the 61% fib on Daily, price made a higher high and stopped at the -27% daily fib extension and then melted... Again, everything connects, you just need to pay attention.
Now I'm looking again at AUDUSD
A trendline has been broken, H1 Trend is now downtrend for me.
Price looks like it is respecting 0.685 which is 61% fib retracement from previous high on D1
My ideal scenario to enter long is to break Downtrend TrendLine to the upside and see price finding some support around EMA50 or DP after being above them, and then I will buy during Pullback, SL can be placed below previous Higher Low or below next Fibo level, I will not place it anyway.
Well, if you were following AUDUSD the next days you can see it did what I was expecting, another quite easy trade for a few pips I have it protected and will let it run risk free.
Eyeing up EU, I have already opened one Long and this time most probably I will set a manual stop if I see it creating a new low on H1, but let me share my current view.
Overall view Trend is bullish on H1, I think we just did a Fake break of the H4 Trendline, and we just did a touch to the Pip to the downtrend trendline that I also drawn days ago (That could have been a good short if your BIAS is short as it touched TL and Weekly Pivot.
Price touched and rejected the 78% fib retracement level and is a good level also in H4, where we can see multiple rejections.
And to add an extra confirmation, it did a 27% fib extension of a possible ABC correction of current trend (If it is not changing to downtrend)
So I guess the long is worth to try, if it makes a new low Trend may be changing to Downtrend and we will have a lost trade and a new short trade oportunity soon
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