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-   -   AUD/USD (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=95260)

gmohata Jul 9, 2008 12:43am | Post# 1

1 Attachment(s)
AUD at a critical support level - if it can break below 9470 - we should go to atleast 9400/9380.

Fundamentals not supporting the Aussie in the short term and a rate hike probability is diminishing.

Aussie is a high-yeild currency and could lose investor appeal very very quickly.

I am taking a short at 9505 with a SL at 9650 and TP (1st lot) at 9400
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Clouds Jul 9, 2008 1:01am | Post# 2

I feel you know each currency pairs ...
Thanks. AU above parity real soon.

gmohata Jul 9, 2008 1:10am | Post# 3

Thanks. AU above parity real soon.
I agree - but thats looking at a 2 month plus horizon. For the next 3-7 days - my charts only show a consolidation before the next leg up. Hence my short. I will take a long only if it can break above 9680/9700 and then parity becomes a more viable target.

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 1:20am | Post# 4

I agree - but thats looking at a 2 month plus horizon. For the next 3-7 days - my charts only show a consolidation before the next leg up. Hence my short. I will take a long only if it can break above 9680/9700 and then parity becomes a more viable target.
i agree it may consolidate,, 'but' 9490-ish is my long term TL on weekly, and may move up rather fast from here. If this a correct TL.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...hmentid=128565

Markj Jul 9, 2008 7:30am | Post# 5

Thanks. AU above parity real soon.
Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.

phloid Jul 9, 2008 8:46am | Post# 6

Open/long @ 0.9500
 
I open a long position 1 lot @ 0.9500 about 11:30 est pm after price moved below the 50% fib. # on the 4hr. chart. stop loss @ 0.9459

Looking for 0.9620/60

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 12:13pm | Post# 7

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.
technical, and parity is not that far away 300 pips, so it's extremely possible.

KissFan Jul 9, 2008 12:22pm | Post# 8

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now
Gold is not finsihed with it's bull run. IMHO.

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 4:25pm | Post# 9

Cloud
 
Clouds,

I'm gonna hang in there till the news is out and over with, see if I can catch a few pips on a retrace if available. What's you experience with this pair regarding news and retracing?
I don't trade the news, (GFT Forex makes it too hard to do that), but on a big movement, I do ok.

I've never traded this pair in my live account before.

Thanks in advance,

regards,

Bristol

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 4:43pm | Post# 10

Clouds,

I'm gonna hang in there till the news is out and over with, see if I can catch a few pips on a retrace if available. What's you experience with this pair regarding news and retracing?
I don't trade the news, (GFT Forex makes it too hard to do that), but on a big movement, I do ok.

I've never traded this pair in my live account before.

Thanks in advance,

regards,

Bristol
the retrace was probably to 9550, and if above 9490, its going up, dont knwo about news, maybe it will help aud

Ambrodel Jul 9, 2008 4:47pm | Post# 11

AUDCAD
 
I am holding a long on the AUDCAD since .9686, so I hope the news tonight will be good enough to move this to .9741. I did make decent pips on a AUDUSD long this morning.

-Ambrodel

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 4:59pm | Post# 12

I am holding a short on the AUDCAD since .9686, so I hope the news tonight will be good enough to move this to .9741. I did make decent pips on a AUDUSD long this morning.

-Ambrodel
good see some other aud pairs on here, i jsut bought aj for 102.

peaches Jul 9, 2008 6:12pm | Post# 13

1 Attachment(s)
stochachstics down, macd cycle down, im short, lets see, if we get some dollar bulls, till end of the week.
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mmccormac Jul 9, 2008 6:13pm | Post# 14

stochachstics down, macd cycle down, im short, lets see, if we get some dollar bulls, till end of the week.
Their employment data is coming out shortly so you have a 50/50 shot. lol

Markj Jul 9, 2008 7:33pm | Post# 15

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.
I agree it's definitely possible and being so close sometimes becomes self fulfilling. However I think that it may need one or two more positive fundamental calls and I just don't believe that there are that many left in the Australian economy at the moment.

But would not surprise me at all if it reaches parity.

I don't want to call the top but I think fundamentally we have seen the top in the AUD economy and the economic cycle is changing. The one caveat in this of course is the booming resources cycle. How much of the AUD is pushed by the buying of resources and how much is in the yield differential and the carry trade we will have to wait and see.

I would think that when speculation of the RBA for interest rate decline starts to build (which I believe is starting) and of course you have US starting to take a strengthening position on their curreny the wind might be changing.

What happened last time the US took a weakening position around the US dollar around deflation. Now we have inflation with already low interest rates and maybe the only option left is to see the US strengthen.

Markj Jul 9, 2008 7:35pm | Post# 16

Gold is not finsihed with it's bull run. IMHO.
Totally agree.

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 9:26pm | Post# 17

Clouds,

Judging from the past reports, I think the employment report (Employment Change) is going to come in the RED, or at least lower than forcast. Just MHO.

Bristol

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 9:32pm | Post# 18

Wahoo! I was long AU and AJ

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 9:33pm | Post# 19

Good 4 you. I caught some, but am out now.
That was quite a move.

tomasz Jul 9, 2008 9:38pm | Post# 20

Wahoo! I was long AU and AJ

Clouds lucky you

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 9:40pm | Post# 21

I looked at past announcements, and could not see much of a quick retrace within 5 or 10 minutes, so I'm just watching this one.

tomasz Jul 9, 2008 9:48pm | Post# 22

It could go 'till 9650

phloid Jul 9, 2008 9:50pm | Post# 23

that was some spike
 
That data was not that good, to create that kind of spike. I closed my long position @ 0.9605.

Now I am short @ 0.9602 sl @ 0.9652

I think this is head fake.

tomasz Jul 9, 2008 9:55pm | Post# 24

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif that was some spike
That data was not that good, to create that kind of spike. I closed my long position @ 0.9605.

Now I am short @ 0.9602 sl @ 0.9652

I think this is head fake.

If gold moves up we will see 9650 but for now i am staying out

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 9:57pm | Post# 25

Ill short any currency , except AUD. On every long-term chart, it is bullish against all currencies. Especially since it is so close to my long-term tl.

samclider Jul 9, 2008 10:04pm | Post# 26

i don't think ..that .

I am not wonder why aud decrease rate ...but other country is ready increase rate ...


Because import their fail...

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 10:16pm | Post# 27

That data was not that good, to create that kind of spike. I closed my long position @ 0.9605.

Now I am short @ 0.9602 sl @ 0.9652

I think this is head fake.
It was triple from forecast, how much better can it get? But sure, it may go down, but im keeping for long-term.

Ambrodel Jul 9, 2008 10:23pm | Post# 28

My AUDCAD long went from -30 pips to +30 pips in a matter of seconds. My original TP did not get hit, but I closed with a +20 profit. Not bad for spending the whole in the red.

-Ambrodel

TrevA Jul 9, 2008 10:37pm | Post# 29

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.
Several factors:
* AUD is a commodity currency so high demand for Aussie resources in China will infuse the Aussie economy with money;
* More money means higher inflation and higher salaries;
* Higher inflation and salaries means higher interest rates in an attempt to curb spending;
* The USD is dead... and will continue to drop in value for quite some time longer;

I'm betting long on the Aussie... long term investment with a 5 year horizon.

TrevA

tomasz Jul 9, 2008 11:12pm | Post# 30

it is not moving, another hour and i hit the bed

cvarnado Jul 10, 2008 12:30am | Post# 31

we touched 9599. break it?

TrevA Jul 10, 2008 12:56am | Post# 32

we touched 9599. break it?
It might when the UK session comes online. Later today we have unemployment claims coming from the USA and if bad could soften the USD and push AUD above .9620...

TrevA

peaches Jul 10, 2008 1:28am | Post# 33

Wahoo! I was long AU and AJ
good decision !

I was stoped +1

Clouds Jul 10, 2008 1:34am | Post# 34

good decision !

I was stoped +1
a major weekly tl is at 9490 right now, so it really can only go up, but it could have dropped to that again, but good thing, u had zero losses. very good!

cvarnado Jul 10, 2008 2:58am | Post# 35

9613 high two pips from my target. aww.

cvarnado Jul 10, 2008 1:05pm | Post# 36

got my target! how did every do?

phloid Jul 11, 2008 2:21pm | Post# 37

I was wrong!
 
That data was not that good, to create that kind of spike. I closed my long position @ 0.9605.

Now I am short @ 0.9602 sl @ 0.9652

I think this is head fake.
I was wrong. The spike up was real, as was the spike that carried the price to 0.9720 this morning.

I am short aud/usd once again @ 0.9696, 0.9700 and @ 0.9707, 2 lots for each position.

Targets: #1 @ 0.9567 and #2 @ 0.9522

If the price does find support @ 0.9567. Would this support zone then be viewed as a "higher low"?

If price does break below 0.9522 the 50% fib. #, will the mrkt still be viewed as being "long"?

peaches Jul 11, 2008 3:28pm | Post# 38

1 Attachment(s)
Hi phloid,

i was caught on the wrong foot too, today.

I cant answer the question about higher lower, but my charts also shows
the targets you mentioned.





I was wrong. The spike up was real, as was the spike that carried the price to 0.9720 this morning.

I am short aud/usd once again @ 0.9696, 0.9700 and @ 0.9707, 2 lots for each position.

Targets: #1 @ 0.9567 and #2 @ 0.9522

If the price does find support @ 0.9567. Would this support zone then be viewed as a "higher low"?

If price does break below 0.9522 the 50% fib. #, will the mrkt still be viewed as being "long"?
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peaches Jul 11, 2008 5:06pm | Post# 39

i put my SL a bit above todays (friday) high, just in case there is no retrace.

Also a buy limit order above the SL might be an idea,
if usd is getting more weak.

Fundamental it will:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...h40&refer=home

tazmet Jul 11, 2008 6:28pm | Post# 40

Range Top?
 
1 Attachment(s)
I know it's Friday and nobody cares but consider it a cautionary primer for next week.

I'm thinking we may still be in a range market for this pair. Technically, price is now holding just below the top of the band or range top having recently rebounded to this point. I am expecting this to fall to the lower band in the short term but am unwilling to put my money where my mouth is given I've eaten more than one short this month. Fundamentals give me pause and also MA's are showing some uptrend strength in the lower time frames. So, some potential for a breakout, but my bias would favor a short at this point.

I want this pair to be bullish forever - can't beat the interest rate.

cheers!
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