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-   -   AUD/USD (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=95260)

Fhillip Nov 2, 2016 10:48am | Post# 99381

{quote} I honestly think you dunno what you are doing. Your trading method, averaging into losing positions, is a recipe for disaster. You may get lucky 9 times, but that 1 losing time will blow your account. Get a grip on basics first, before you start to analyse which way AUD will move.
Good advice slk, at least I'm good now. Green pips all the way. Thanks for your advice.

JayBag Nov 2, 2016 12:08pm | Post# 99382

I think movement is UP just a little, but trend line in H4 need go back to support. And if price goes UP, in MACD indicator makes divergence. Its in my mind. {image}
Yo! Are you still holding on this trade? The Aussie doesn't look like what's gonna go down anytime soon tho

MasterJedi Nov 2, 2016 12:42pm | Post# 99383

Given the negative data from the US earlier it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks through the trend line to head north 0.770 or even 0.773. Its also a possible wave 3 on the 4hr tf. In any case when it bounced off the 4hr trend line yesterday it didn't go far, stopping at the 20ma before heading back up, this looks like it's trying to squeeze itself out. The 20ma is often a good area for takeoff.

dweb Nov 2, 2016 2:19pm | Post# 99384

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redalert Nov 2, 2016 9:13pm | Post# 99385

So Trade balance figure is better than expected, not surprising considering the commodities rally.

All the recent media seems to be praising the AU as some kind of indicator of growing economies around the world. This is arguable.

- Commodities died, this caused the AU to fall to 0.70ish

- Now the aud is at 0.77 and Aus media/government is attributing this rally as some kind miraculous transition away from mining to 'innovation' when really commodities recovered 49% this year compared to last. That and property going nuts (1.1 million media house price in Sydney? Bubble much) causing the construction to increase dramatically. Manufacturing is dead in Au, jobs growth isn't great, core inflation low - if mining stops so does AU economy.

- 49% rise is purely China buying ore and coal. They seemed to have taken a liking to iron and their Dalian futures trading market has increased massively this year is proof of that. Combined with the Chinese government lending heaps of money to stimulate their economy and also the drop in the yuan, is making ore all the more attractive. Stock piles are building up for them to hold an re-sell but how long can this last?

We are basically at a best case scenario for the AUD and it is failing to go above 0.77, USD is very subdued with only one planned rate rise this year from the proposed 2 or 3 so there way more room and potential growth in US than that of AU.

I am short bias, all the pundits are 0.80 AUD going into next, but last year those same people were saying 0.60 AUD at the end of this year.

I wouldn't bet anything on China sustaining anything, I've had some people say around the traps in the next couple of year, that there will be a tightening by the Chinese government directly impacting their economy.

SkyrEk Nov 2, 2016 10:09pm | Post# 99386

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Down trendline still being respected.
More choppy and consolidation movement expected. Speculative moves are more likely since opinion polls are being released every now and then.
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SkyrEk Nov 2, 2016 11:03pm | Post# 99387

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Updates.
Failure at trend-line. Falling fast down.
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damo Nov 2, 2016 11:06pm | Post# 99388

Looks like a big bull trap. Big moves often follow traps. SkyrEk trendline from above is being well respected and price is moving south.

For those not living in Aus, the economy over here, is really bad (especially in the west where all of the commodity dollars lie).

JayBag Nov 2, 2016 11:07pm | Post# 99389

Updates. Failure at trend-line. Falling fast down. {image}
Nice Chart! Where do you think we will find the nearest support?

ell3 Nov 2, 2016 11:12pm | Post# 99390

Updates. Failure at trend-line. Falling fast down. {image}
i noted the trend line too, but the speed of the fall is suspicious. i've got the entire move in one M5 candle. if it steadies, may consider "speculating" a small buy position back to 7670.

JayBag Nov 2, 2016 11:14pm | Post# 99391

{quote} i noted the trend line too, but the speed of the fall is suspicious. i've got the entire move in one M5 candle. if it steadies, may consider "speculating" a small buy position back to 7670.
Don't you think buying would be gambling? well it's all gamble anyway

SkyrEk Nov 2, 2016 11:14pm | Post# 99392

Looks like a big bull trap. Big moves often follow traps. SkyrEk trendline from above is being well respected and price is moving south. For those not living in Aus, the economy over here, is really bad (especially in the west where all of the commodity dollars lie).
Yup, region around .7685 is a strong resistance indeed. Bull trap? Probably. As we all will know by now, this AU moves in a choppy manner, so i wouldn't hold my shorts for too long too. No idea when will it bounce back up again, but if i go according to my chart, i guess there is more downside to come before any real trend will persist.



{quote} Nice Chart! Where do you think we will find the nearest support?

Probably around .7580 - .7585?
I will exit my shorts once i feel that prices are going to turn back up again, AU requires closer monitoring as compared to trading this pair a couple of months back.

SkyrEk Nov 2, 2016 11:16pm | Post# 99393

{quote} i noted the trend line too, but the speed of the fall is suspicious. i've got the entire move in one M5 candle. if it steadies, may consider "speculating" a small buy position back to 7670.

The 1hr candle closed with a big bearish candle. So i will expect more downside before it goes back up again.

Just my opinion, anything goes in FX

JayBag Nov 2, 2016 11:22pm | Post# 99394

{quote} Yup, region around .7685 is a strong resistance indeed. Bull trap? Probably. As we all will know by now, this AU moves in a choppy manner, so i wouldn't hold my shorts for too long too. No idea when will it bounce back up again, but if i go according to my chart, i guess there is more downside to come before any real trend will persist. {quote} Probably around .7580 - .7585? I will exit my shorts once i feel that prices are going to turn back up again, AU requires closer monitoring as compared to trading this pair a couple of months back....
Thanks.. I had those numbers in mind.. just around the ascending TL

hathor Nov 2, 2016 11:24pm | Post# 99395

So Trade balance figure is better than expected, not surprising considering the commodities rally....
Thanks for the fundamental thoughts.. I'm short bias purely due to technical facts (since 19th of Oct):
For me its a 'defeinitely down' from now on. Target: under 2016.05.22. weekly low.
Hope the move will be sustainable this time....time will tell.
Back to sleep.
Inserted Video

ell3 Nov 2, 2016 11:52pm | Post# 99396

{quote} The 1hr candle closed with a big bearish candle. So i will expect more downside before it goes back up again. Just my opinion, anything goes in FX
well, if anything, it looked like a typical risk-off reaction. the "sell first, think later" type. could also be stops tripping on the AUD/JPY cos the JPY was moving first. the AUD buying coupled with USD selling momentum has been strong and i don't think that will really change until the election is over.

for the record, i didn't buy eventually and i'm slapping myself now.

i have this demo account with my broker which i still keep until today, cos i use it for additional charts. i enter trades on it too - basically the trades which i have no guts to enter on my live trading account - from July 2016 till today, it has grown from US$5000 to US$1.1mil. it just shows that if we all trade without fear, we'll be much richer people if only!

JayBag Nov 3, 2016 12:37am | Post# 99397

We are almost there guys.. the down movement is bound to happen really soon #Patience! Patience! Patience!

SkyrEk Nov 3, 2016 1:44am | Post# 99398

{quote} well, if anything, it looked like a typical risk-off reaction. the "sell first, think later" type. could also be stops tripping on the AUD/JPY cos the JPY was moving first. the AUD buying coupled with USD selling momentum has been strong and i don't think that will really change until the election is over. for the record, i didn't buy eventually and i'm slapping myself now. i have this demo account with my broker which i still keep until today, cos i use it for additional charts. i enter trades on it too - basically the trades which i have...
Hahaha i guess in life there are many 'ifs' and regrets that we feel when we don't take a certain trade. Anyway, at least u are growing your demo funds, once u transfer that knowledge and do the opposite for your live account, you would be rich too! Let's see what London brings to us in about an hour + time

hathor Nov 3, 2016 9:53am | Post# 99399

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My mad market maker view: new high according to every continent's time zone.

Trapped Eu & Us buyers
Trapped Eu & Us buyers
Trapped Au buyers
Trapped Eu & Au buyers
NOW: Australia went to sleep, Eu & Us plays the instrument
-> time to take out a bottom on hgher time frame?
or
-> time to make a new false break out?

AudUsd H1:
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....time will tell.

ell3 Nov 3, 2016 10:54am | Post# 99400

probing at the topside trendline @ 7683 again. this time it may well break above, because unlike at previous attempts when the AU was at this level, the EU and UJ were all also at extremes. Now, however, the EU is still at the middle of the day's range, so is the USD index. any further downside move in the USD index could trip the stops above. nonetheless, bought at 7661 and closing now to lock in profit. will sell if it reaches 7690.


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