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grandia Mar 1, 2012 10:27pm | Post# 41261

From previous RBA release

"The exchange rate has risen further, even though the terms of trade have started to decline. This is largely a reflection of a decline in the euro against all currencies. Nonetheless, the Australian dollar in trade-weighted terms is somewhat higher than the Bank had previously assumed."

"Should demand conditions weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy. The Board will continue to monitor information on economic and financial conditions and adjust the cash rate as necessary to foster sustainable growth and low inflation."

with EUR keep declining, USD being hammered as the market keep expecting another QE, I think AUD will be a temporary "safe haven" and it will raise further should there be no intervention
and looking at recent private capex and building approval, I think it's probably time to start decreasing interest rate

CMIIW
my 2c

Jackana Mar 1, 2012 10:40pm | Post# 41262

From previous RBA release

"The exchange rate has risen further, even though the terms of trade have started to decline. This is largely a reflection of a decline in the euro against all currencies. Nonetheless, the Australian dollar in trade-weighted terms is somewhat higher than the Bank had previously assumed."

"Should demand conditions weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy. The Board will continue to monitor information on economic and financial conditions and adjust the cash...
But no change from previous meetings. The Market now may think of the same.

grandia Mar 1, 2012 10:49pm | Post# 41263

yes.. last time everyone expects that they will cut the rate but it remains unchanged. So now everyone expects it to be unchanged.. and who knows what will happen?

fxdragonz Mar 1, 2012 11:24pm | Post# 41264

i think, since ltro is basically the same as qe1 and 2, aud will run to 1.12 unless rba shock everyone with an intervention
The short positions held by IG Markets has crept up to 75% again. If it does run it will do it quite hard.

I am long at 1.0787 (target 1.0833) but will buy another position at 1.0777 (if it goes that low)that I'll hold for a longer term position (target 1.0877 revised daily).

Jose Louis Mar 2, 2012 1:09am | Post# 41265

The break of 1.0728 minor support turned intraday bias in AUD/USD neutral again. At this point, we'd favor another rise as long as 1.0597 support holds. Above 1.0852 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1.1079 high. However, break of 1.0597 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed.

Ggenevu Mar 2, 2012 3:41am | Post# 41266

seem to be a sharp fall

Daytrader74 Mar 2, 2012 3:59am | Post# 41267

seem to be a sharp fall
Its going to fall a bit more...

happytrader Mar 2, 2012 5:26am | Post# 41268

1st trade long @ 1.0775 sl 1.0765 tp 1.0800
out -10 pips, trying to pick the bottom...bloody hell

2nd trade long @ 1.0768 sl 1.0755 tp 1.0820
closed plus +10 pips. chickened out...
bloody hell. got a feeling that i won't break 1.07800 without revisiting 1.07600 to form a double bottom.

Ggenevu Mar 2, 2012 7:06am | Post# 41269

we are preparing for a move down ..again

Ggenevu Mar 2, 2012 7:07am | Post# 41270

i think the next target will be 1.0730

Razdel Mar 2, 2012 7:20am | Post# 41271

a break of 760 will take it down to 660, sold at 810 sl 860 tp t1 660 t2 580

Daytrader74 Mar 2, 2012 7:51am | Post# 41272

This baby is about to drop.....get your shorts ready

happytrader Mar 2, 2012 8:01am | Post# 41273

long @ 1.07645,

sl 1.07545,

tp 1.08445

Daytrader74 Mar 2, 2012 8:03am | Post# 41274

long @ 1.07645,

sl 1.07545,

tp 1.08445
be careful....it will see 1.0740 at least before going back up....

profi4554 Mar 2, 2012 8:10am | Post# 41275

long @ 1.07645,

sl 1.07545,

tp 1.08445

Try to plot LWMA 8 Close / Open on a blank H1 chart. Maybe this will help you to figure out where the current price direction.

~profi~

happytrader Mar 2, 2012 8:13am | Post# 41276

Try to plot LWMA 8 Close / Open on a blank H1 chart. Maybe this will help you to figure out where the current price direction.

~profi~
oh hi!!!

it's good to know another malaysian here! wow you're a full time trader. i wish i could learn from you. ... my story is on my profile.......

Razdel Mar 2, 2012 8:25am | Post# 41277

The short positions held by IG Markets has crept up to 75% again. If it does run it will do it quite hard.

I am long at 1.0787 (target 1.0833) but will buy another position at 1.0777 (if it goes that low)that I'll hold for a longer term position (target 1.0877 revised daily).
good thinking, although it might break higher, i dont think it will be a sustained one, some industries are getting hammered there, and the gov. surely indicated he's not happy where price is going, but who knows, a visit to 920 is just right there, if closed above 1.0850 and again i dont see that happening soon, it will target 2011 highs

taxe91 Mar 2, 2012 8:37am | Post# 41278

long @ 1.07645,

sl 1.07545,

tp 1.08445
hey man, i see a lot of posts from you saying you get stopped out a lot. do you always trade with a 10 pip SL?

happytrader Mar 2, 2012 8:41am | Post# 41279

hey man, i see a lot of posts from you saying you get stopped out a lot. do you always trade with a 10 pip SL?
yea... 10 -15 pips are my usual sl. sometimes i put 20 pips, the reason why i don't want like to have more than a 20 pip sl is that.. if that trade turns back, i.e. hit my sl, i'll probably feel like shit.

if a 10 pip sl got hit, i still got 1 or 2 chances to trade again on the same day. i've a 3 trade limit as part of my trading rule....

please let me know if there are other ways i can improve set ups or rules, thanks a lot.

happytrader Mar 2, 2012 8:45am | Post# 41280

long @ 1.07645,

sl 1.07545,

tp 1.08445
out -10pips


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