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-   -   AUD/USD (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=95260)

gmohata Jul 9, 2008 12:43am | Post# 1

1 Attachment(s)
AUD at a critical support level - if it can break below 9470 - we should go to atleast 9400/9380.

Fundamentals not supporting the Aussie in the short term and a rate hike probability is diminishing.

Aussie is a high-yeild currency and could lose investor appeal very very quickly.

I am taking a short at 9505 with a SL at 9650 and TP (1st lot) at 9400
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Clouds Jul 9, 2008 1:01am | Post# 2

I feel you know each currency pairs ...
Thanks. AU above parity real soon.

gmohata Jul 9, 2008 1:10am | Post# 3

Thanks. AU above parity real soon.
I agree - but thats looking at a 2 month plus horizon. For the next 3-7 days - my charts only show a consolidation before the next leg up. Hence my short. I will take a long only if it can break above 9680/9700 and then parity becomes a more viable target.

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 1:20am | Post# 4

I agree - but thats looking at a 2 month plus horizon. For the next 3-7 days - my charts only show a consolidation before the next leg up. Hence my short. I will take a long only if it can break above 9680/9700 and then parity becomes a more viable target.
i agree it may consolidate,, 'but' 9490-ish is my long term TL on weekly, and may move up rather fast from here. If this a correct TL.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...hmentid=128565

Markj Jul 9, 2008 7:30am | Post# 5

Thanks. AU above parity real soon.
Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.

phloid Jul 9, 2008 8:46am | Post# 6

Open/long @ 0.9500
 
I open a long position 1 lot @ 0.9500 about 11:30 est pm after price moved below the 50% fib. # on the 4hr. chart. stop loss @ 0.9459

Looking for 0.9620/60

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 12:13pm | Post# 7

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.
technical, and parity is not that far away 300 pips, so it's extremely possible.

KissFan Jul 9, 2008 12:22pm | Post# 8

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now
Gold is not finsihed with it's bull run. IMHO.

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 4:25pm | Post# 9

Cloud
 
Clouds,

I'm gonna hang in there till the news is out and over with, see if I can catch a few pips on a retrace if available. What's you experience with this pair regarding news and retracing?
I don't trade the news, (GFT Forex makes it too hard to do that), but on a big movement, I do ok.

I've never traded this pair in my live account before.

Thanks in advance,

regards,

Bristol

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 4:43pm | Post# 10

Clouds,

I'm gonna hang in there till the news is out and over with, see if I can catch a few pips on a retrace if available. What's you experience with this pair regarding news and retracing?
I don't trade the news, (GFT Forex makes it too hard to do that), but on a big movement, I do ok.

I've never traded this pair in my live account before.

Thanks in advance,

regards,

Bristol
the retrace was probably to 9550, and if above 9490, its going up, dont knwo about news, maybe it will help aud

Ambrodel Jul 9, 2008 4:47pm | Post# 11

AUDCAD
 
I am holding a long on the AUDCAD since .9686, so I hope the news tonight will be good enough to move this to .9741. I did make decent pips on a AUDUSD long this morning.

-Ambrodel

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 4:59pm | Post# 12

I am holding a short on the AUDCAD since .9686, so I hope the news tonight will be good enough to move this to .9741. I did make decent pips on a AUDUSD long this morning.

-Ambrodel
good see some other aud pairs on here, i jsut bought aj for 102.

peaches Jul 9, 2008 6:12pm | Post# 13

1 Attachment(s)
stochachstics down, macd cycle down, im short, lets see, if we get some dollar bulls, till end of the week.
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mmccormac Jul 9, 2008 6:13pm | Post# 14

stochachstics down, macd cycle down, im short, lets see, if we get some dollar bulls, till end of the week.
Their employment data is coming out shortly so you have a 50/50 shot. lol

Markj Jul 9, 2008 7:33pm | Post# 15

Just curious what fundamentals do you believe will drive the AUD above parity now or is this a technical call.
I agree it's definitely possible and being so close sometimes becomes self fulfilling. However I think that it may need one or two more positive fundamental calls and I just don't believe that there are that many left in the Australian economy at the moment.

But would not surprise me at all if it reaches parity.

I don't want to call the top but I think fundamentally we have seen the top in the AUD economy and the economic cycle is changing. The one caveat in this of course is the booming resources cycle. How much of the AUD is pushed by the buying of resources and how much is in the yield differential and the carry trade we will have to wait and see.

I would think that when speculation of the RBA for interest rate decline starts to build (which I believe is starting) and of course you have US starting to take a strengthening position on their curreny the wind might be changing.

What happened last time the US took a weakening position around the US dollar around deflation. Now we have inflation with already low interest rates and maybe the only option left is to see the US strengthen.

Markj Jul 9, 2008 7:35pm | Post# 16

Gold is not finsihed with it's bull run. IMHO.
Totally agree.

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 9:26pm | Post# 17

Clouds,

Judging from the past reports, I think the employment report (Employment Change) is going to come in the RED, or at least lower than forcast. Just MHO.

Bristol

Clouds Jul 9, 2008 9:32pm | Post# 18

Wahoo! I was long AU and AJ

bristolxyz Jul 9, 2008 9:33pm | Post# 19

Good 4 you. I caught some, but am out now.
That was quite a move.

tomasz Jul 9, 2008 9:38pm | Post# 20

Wahoo! I was long AU and AJ

Clouds lucky you


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