"As per the Toyota example, as long as you make money/come out nett positive in the end, i don't see why not."
Because you don't want to flip the coin - equally you wouldn't want to flip coin 19 times. you are more likely to get 15 heads in a row (around 80% of the time) then it is to get 80 heads in a row if you flipped the coin 100 times. Wouldn't you agree?
"Also, who gets to say what is the ideal sample size is, 100, why not 110 or 200?"
Ehhhhmmm, it's called statistics... Honestly, opinions like yours are dangerous and are encouraging inexperienced traders to start trading real account after making couple of trades on demo.
"Based on your history, it looks like you used moving averages, the same argument used by you does apply to your thought process."
Moving averages can give you directional bias. Nothing more. I never traded their crossovers as such and would certainly not traded them on their own.
I am all for criticism with the caveat it being "constructive", if you think the person is wrong- first and foremost please make sure you are qualified- show an alternative approach. The general theme is negative, "Hey what you are doing is wrong man...Let me get back to doing what i do which hasn't worked for me in decades"....shhhh
You dont seem to be "all for criticism" and seems like you just want to be spoon fed. Not sure what you meant by qualified but doesn't matter. Also, you have no clue how successfully or not successfully i am trading and again, doesn't matter. I see you are from India where people drive on the left side of the road. If you told someone coming from Germany to India not to drive on the right-hand side of the road because you drive on the left, wouldn't that be constructive? I am afraid I am unable to provide what you deem as a "constructive" feedback on a system which tells you to buy or sell when a dot appears. And presenting other methods would be hijacking this thread...
So in my view constructive part of saying "sample is small" is "YOUR SAMPLE SIZE NEEDS TO BE BIGGER" if you want more objective picture. wrote it in capitals since you have difficulties to read between the lines.
With all that being said, I didn't say system isn't working. All the best
What actually happened was that in 5 years I saw 4 Toyota trucks, in a row, 19 times.
On 14 of those mornings it rained afterwards. Inter-spaced, randomly, were 5 mornings where it did not rain...my expectation is some mornings I will not see rain but mostly I can expect rain.
Another factor is that all the mornings were consecutive, meaning that I had breakfast every time there were to be 4 Toyota trucks in a row.
Here is what I have figured out for the 4 hour chart with Frama Ribbon set to daily signals and xSuperTrend set to 4 hour signals but mirroring daily chart.
The charts on the left are the adjusted ones, they are mirroring the ones on the right.
I am going to set this up for trading this coming week (4 hour set up).
It would be nice to have an EA...just saying.
it's true that i am yet to be a successful trader and my profile also states so. Yes, a bigger sample size is always better in any statistical analysis, but in this case it comes at a trade off- the freshness of data[in the context of trading a higher tf]. Does going back even further, say from year 2001 to present a better indication of robustness? The answer is we don't know- market has seen transformation with respect to volatility over the years.
To his credit, Chris is a good system designer- in the not so recent past, we tested his system and i am sure he knows what he is doing and 5 years was a good balance between freshness of the data and duration of testing period. We need to keep in mind, this is just the starting reference point. I kinda felt your post was condescending and it seems you could have put your point across in a different way.
does it repaint ??
whats the pairs to trade...
On the D1, I see that this netted a mere 25% of what was made the standard way.
Even though the price structure is fractal in nature, I suspect (no hard evidence to support this) that the few large winners with several smaller losers does not scale with the fractal scale. I suspect that as the timeframe gets smaller, the relative size of the big winners diminishes and the number of small losses increases, so that the pips win:loss of about 12:1 will drop significantly. Taking only continuation trades may scale the win:loss better as the timeframe gets smaller.
I will have a look at 15min with 1hr signals.
Here are the results from the 15min GBPJPY with 1 hour signals. ( chart shown is 30 min so it could all fit).
The top numbers are trades as in post 1 rules.
The results and trade amounts with boxes are DrDave suggestion trades.
Make of it what you will.
I conclude that I would stick to rules on first page...and would not wish to pursue this any longer, as it will confuse the thread, but thanks for the input.
What is encouraging is the fact that this can translate to the lower TFs without a drop in the win rate but with way more pips in a shorter amount of time.
I am very happy with the way this thread is turning out and look forward to next week when I start trading the daily TFs. We would need an EA to trade the lower TFs because of the obvious time constraints.
hi i just want to help this thread i will gave you Screen shot
as you can see, the candle is repaint for 1 day (because it set to 1 day)
so you will follow the arrow all day, and look for the result the next morning
also the D indicator is repaint too
The Frama Ribbon is set to daily, meaning that the frama dot will appear 6 candles back (on a h4 chart), when the daily candle closes.
So an EA must look back with shift 5, yes?
Or am i missing something ?
Chris, Did you happen to evaluate exiting the D1 trade when the W1 closes a bar in the opposite direction rather than waiting for a color change of either D1 bar or dot?
That is, if you went long on D1 because a blue dot was displayed, the next 2 W1 bars close as an up bar, then the 3rd W1 bar closes as a down bar, so immediately exit.
I only looked at the examples that were posted on the thread, but it looks to me like you will exit with more of the unrealized pips in tact than if waiting for the color change of either the D1 bar or dot.
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