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-   -   has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=948113)

TudorIoan Oct 15, 2019 12:33am | Post# 721

{quote} Simple answer no. But the probabilities change dramatically in my favour when it corrects to efficiency which it always does🥴
Always? And you know exactly when the change comes, I mean it's never too late, it always happens before your margin is exhausted ?!

And the probs always changes dramatically in your favor ? It sounds like adding losers against the market trend, then when the trend reverses you cash exponetially

Fantastic! Nice to meet you, champ!

Viktory Oct 15, 2019 2:24am | Post# 722

{quote} real story: once upon a time people from all over the world rushed to America to find gold in rivers. After years of trial guess who was the richest of all? The man who encouraged people to pursue their dreams and then sold them shovels! (Taken from joseph)
{quote} By selling premium options? Really because that's his strategy. This is very risky if you don't know and one trade can wipe out all the profit made. If you know how to trade the underlying contract then you don't need to trade options.

--- Again, here's my answer to that:

Contrary to Forex, I know some real consistent profitable Stock Options traders, using mainly either Interactive Brokers or TD Ameritrade. But with accounts bigger than $100K USD, it's not sustainable for the long run to pursue more than 30-60% returns per year on the whole account. "Steady Options" is a great audited example of more or less how much you could make with medium-high risk in sub<100K accounts, mainly because of liquidity issues; and for something realistically achievable with bigger accounts, check their "Anchor Trades" & "Steady Momentum" performances.
With real brokers who doesn't make a "fake market" to trade against the retail traders, providing much better trading platforms and analysis tools... Options offer manageable leverage, complex strategies for different situations and objectives, they behave with less "randomness" or unexpected manipulations; and you can better control risk, based on real probabilities from regulated exchanges.

TudorIoan Oct 15, 2019 2:38am | Post# 723

{quote} {quote} --- Again, here's my answer to that: {quote} With real brokers who doesn't make a "fake market" to trade against the retail traders, providing much better trading platforms and analysis tools... Options offer manageable leverage, complex strategies for different situations and objectives, they behave with less "randomness" or unexpected manipulations; and you can better control risk, based on real probabilities from regulated exchanges.
Hi, Vic! All true, ...but mind that 90% of the retail loses not because they can't find decent brokers or decent trading tools.

Viktory Oct 15, 2019 2:46am | Post# 724

{quote} Hi, Vic! All true, ...but mind that 90% of the retail loses not because they can't find decent brokers or decent trading tools.
Hey, Tudor! Correct, but everything adds up and contributes to general stability and the chances to succeed... And besides reliable measurable odds for different outcomes, I forgot to also mention: real quantifiable volume.

diceman555 Oct 15, 2019 3:40am | Post# 725

{quote} Always? And you know exactly when the change comes, I mean it's never too late, it always happens before your margin is exhausted ?! And the probs always changes dramatically in your favor ? It sounds like adding losers against the market trend, then when the trend reverses you cash exponetially Fantastic! Nice to meet you, champ!
Assumption


patara Oct 15, 2019 6:32am | Post# 726

Sergey (aka Newdigital) is the best discretionary trader I have ever seen : https://www.mql5.com/en/users/newdigital/publications

DavidRP Oct 15, 2019 6:35am | Post# 727

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Ok, let see >3 years successfull real traders. Are there edges in the fx market? Yes, there are. Are there obvious ? No, they aren't. And yep fx good traders are <1%. And yep, the odds are against you, but all bussiness have odds against you.
Regards
Btw, the charts are not mine.
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alphaomega Oct 15, 2019 6:40am | Post# 728

How do the Darwinex and Zulu crowd do it?
They don't. It's yet another scam invented by the Forex industry.

I had small test accounts in all of these social/copytrade platforms a few years ago. I knew that there is something fishy but I had to make sure that I'm not missing the next big thing.
After all, If I can earn money by copying the best traders this will be perfect (in theory). All I have to do is build a diversified portfolio with as many traders as possible and over time I have to allocate more and more capital to the best performing traders. Sounds like a great strategy.....

Unfortunately it does not work. All of the accounts went in the red right from the start and never recovered. I tested over 50 different "traders" all of them ranked in the top 20 on each platform. And all of them lost money in my accounts while showing profits in their account. Absolutely amazing. I mean even with random simulations you can expect to see a few profitable curves. Clearly something was not right.

So after some investigation I quickly found how the whole scam works.
Many of the traders are fake. They don't even exist and the results are made up with the internal MT4 manager after the fact. Some of the traders are real but most of them are lucky outliers. Their strategies are not working or the expectancy per trade is way too small to allow realistic copying.
The broker/platform will present these "leaders" as very profitable. But when you connect your account they will introduce artificial slippage on top of the system just to make sure that you never make it above brake even. Over time they will deplete your account. Basically what happens is your trades never reach the real market. They are not even hedged internally on the B book. The brokers are using the whole system as a sure way to legally steal your money. They don't have to hedge your trades because the negative expectancy is guaranteed internally by their system. So there is zero cost and zero risk for them.

It's a very simple scam. I even wonder how the regulators still allow this. Maybe they don't understand the scam yet. Or no one told them about it.

Mingary Oct 15, 2019 6:48am | Post# 729

How do the Darwinex and Zulu crowd do it?
They capitalize on The Law of Averages..
Fake accounts also help
Same with subscription based schemes like topstepfx or BluFx and such, all scams

Fx-Gamer Oct 15, 2019 7:09am | Post# 730

{quote} Haha.. this guy on your video is talking about scam and in the end, he is the scam. Luring traders and wannabes to his business. Hahahaha
I do not agree with his view onto trading either, but in the end he is making money... his way.

Batuvisser Oct 15, 2019 7:24am | Post# 731

It is really difficult for a person to put his ego aside and accept that winning against the house is mission impossible. I just did it this week, after spending 50-100 hours a week for more than a year I came to the conclusion that making it in this industry is just not worth it. I'm sure there will be some forexaddict which will tell me I need to work harder and that it takes 10 years to master the markets. Thank you, but I pass..

It is technically possible to make money in FX. However making a living from it is just a different level. I dont see the point in spending years and years to "master" a random walk while I can make more working on something else. The fact that we are still on subs like this just shows how addicted forex can be!

alphaomega Oct 15, 2019 7:55am | Post# 732

It is really difficult for a person to put his ego aside and accept that winning against the house is mission impossible. I just did it this week, after spending 50-100 hours a week for more than a year I came to the conclusion that making it in this industry is just not worth it. I'm sure there will be some forexaddict which will tell me I need to work harder and that it takes 10 years to master the markets. Thank you, but I pass.. It is technically possible to make money in FX. However making a living from it is just a different level. I dont...
You can definitely make a living from Forex. If you master the "system" you can even make a fortune. And I think you already know how the "system" works......(it has nothing to do with actual trading)

On the other side, you could also make a living from Forex with real trading. But it's very very hard. You need a lot of top notch resources, a lot of knowledge, skills and last but not least some real capital. If you are a resident in first world country you need at least $200-300K for a start just to maintain some middle class standard.

The realistic returns from Forex trading are very small in fact. It's exactly the opposite of what most people expect. 20% per year is a good return. 50% per year is amazing. And if you can make 100%+ per year then you are the master of the universe (or most likely you are lucky). But we are talking about reasonable risks. Max drawdown <10% and trading without leverage.

Batuvisser Oct 15, 2019 9:08am | Post# 733

{quote} You can definitely make a living from Forex. If you master the "system" you can even make a fortune. And I think you already know how the "system" works......(it has nothing to do with actual trading)
I agree that it is technically possible, but definitely not worth it. Most people live in an illusion hoping to become a profitable FX trader, but the path is just way too hard. I classify everbody following this path as stupid rather than a ''hard working individual'' The fact that no one shows a solid trackrecord and only talks speaks for itself. There is not a single educator with a third party audited trade history (a scammy MyFXbook link doesnt count). The fact that there are people with more than 10k posts on this forum without a solid trackrecord is just sad. If these people would put the same effort in something serious they could probably achieve way more in life. Unfortunately they prefer to argue and post instead of accepting reality. Cut your lossers and let your winners run!

{quote} The realistic returns from Forex trading are very small in fact. It's exactly the opposite of what most people expect. 20% per year is a good return. 50% per year is amazing. And if you can make 100%+ per year then you are the master of the universe (or most likely you are lucky). But we are talking about reasonable risks. Max drawdown <10% and trading without leverage.
With a goal of 10-50% a year I believe that we are better off using the Warren Buffet approach of buying stocks and holding a well diversified portfolio instead of trading. This is also not easy to do, but at least we wont waste too much time in case of a losing year. Unfortunately most of the people on these forums, including myself are not good at holding something longterm which is the reason most of us got in to trading in the first place.

{quote} If you are a resident in first world country you need at least $200-300K for a start just to maintain some middle class standard.
True, but it would be stupid to think about trading forex with 300k. I would rather take a flight to China/Hong Kong and find a solid product to sell or even better, open a brokerage firm in a third world country!

Personally I still have some faith to trade, just not forex. I'm thinking about scalping the Futures market, what is your take on that? The transaction costs on the ES are extremely small compared to the 1 pip spread on EUR/USD which is ridiculously high considering the range..

alphaomega Oct 15, 2019 9:56am | Post# 734

{quote}... Personally I still have some faith to trade, just not forex. I'm thinking about scalping the Futures market, what is your take on that? The transaction costs on the ES are extremely small compared to the 1 pip spread on EUR/USD which is ridiculously high considering the range..
It's the same thing. No significant edge there. The only advantage of the futures is that you are trading on exchange with higher security and without manipulations. Unlike OTC FX you could safely trade futures with millions and even billions in your accounts. But it's not more profitable unless your are a market maker.
You still have to compete against the robots. It's a losing battle....

The best bet for the retail trader is to trade Stocks. At least with the stocks you can find real correlations between fundamentals and price. And the trends are amazing. Especially during bear market....

alphadude Oct 15, 2019 10:07am | Post# 735

{quote} You can definitely make a living from Forex. If you master the "system" you can even make a fortune. And I think you already know how the "system" works......(it has nothing to do with actual trading) On the other side, you could also make a living from Forex with real trading. But it's very very hard. You need a lot of top notch resources, a lot of knowledge, skills and last but not least some real capital. If you are a resident in first world country you need at least $200-300K for a start just to maintain some middle class standard. The...

AO, what do you think about some FF users who claim to have made millions in Forex; like CrucialPoint, DancingPhil, Master George, etc.

some of their posts makes my head spin !

alphaomega Oct 15, 2019 10:25am | Post# 736

{quote} AO, what do you think about some FF users who claim to have made millions in Forex; like CrucialPoint, DancingPhil, Master George, etc. some of their posts makes my head spin !
I'm suspicious by default because I know that the odds are very slim. Maybe they really made millions, maybe they are liars, maybe they are lucky.. . Who knows...? But I don't see evidence!

Also as I have said many times, in the short term randomness works both ways. You could get very lucky. If you have some strategy with high win% even if the expectancy per trade is zero or slightly negative you can still make huge return.
Also some martingale and grid systems sometimes can survive for years and years..... it depends on the market conditions.

john0415 Oct 15, 2019 10:44am | Post# 737

Full of whiners.
Disgusting.

alphadude Oct 15, 2019 9:26pm | Post# 738

{quote} It's the same thing. No significant edge there. The only advantage of the futures is that you are trading on exchange with higher security and without manipulations. Unlike OTC FX you could safely trade futures with millions and even billions in your accounts. But it's not more profitable unless your are a market maker. You still have to compete against the robots. It's a losing battle.... The best bet for the retail trader is to trade Stocks. At least with the stocks you can find real correlations between fundamentals and price. And the...
have you tried discretionary trading?

it maybe worth a try.

human mind can adapt to changing market condition.

robots can get lost sometimes.

look at elon musk cars. some of them killed their owners.

think about it, anybody can learn how to drive. even old ladies. Elon musk and his 10000 engineers are still strugling to develop a perfect robot.

Macd-rsi Oct 16, 2019 12:38am | Post# 739

{quote} Unfortunately I think the other guy is serious. Ive already had messages asking for settings Now I feel bad for joking around. To be VERY clear I was joking. Beinng a successful trader requires great knowledge. Price Action is only 1 of about 6 or 7 areas you need to be an expert in. And using rsi and all these lagging rubbish is not being an expert. If you want to gamble go to a casino. youll have better odds there than trading markets without any education
advocate this post.

TudorIoan Oct 16, 2019 4:20am | Post# 740

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Ok, let see >3 years successfull real traders. Are there edges in the fx market? Yes, there are. Are there obvious ? No, they aren't. And yep fx good traders are <1%. And yep, the odds are against you, but all bussiness have odds against you. Regards Btw, the charts are not mine. {image} {image} {image}
Here's mine, Dave!
600% in 99 days (65 trades) weee!
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