40 wins = 2R x 40 = 80 reward
60 losses = -1R x 60 = -60 risk
80 reward - 60 risk = 20 reward ?
Get a mentor asap to spot your blind spots and also read this https://forums.babypips.com/t/the-10...ney/214330/982 which is the only thread i know where the guy hasnt lost a single trade and has posted so many screenshots of real money accounts that it's turned overwhelmingly legit
Having said that yes the price isn't random but your example doesn't fit the purpose.
And I know market moves for a reason. I didn't say it's as random as molecular movements, but all I'm saying is when the market reaction is almost unknown, we'd better see it as random altogether.
I hope you can see my point.
And talking again about randomness...
"The thing is, in trading/Forex, each move is dependent of the "previous history", simply because unlike with coins flipping, or roulette... someone ONLY can get paid by taking the opposite action to his first... in layman terms: closing the trade!... so without closing it, the "previous action" won't run its cycle... hence: no realized profit/loss".
... so despite price looking mostly random between fundamental moves and macroeconomic general bias, it definitely isn't. Although it's extremely hard to accurately spot → discern → understand → and exploit with good enough consistency; month after month, year after year.
Yes, you're right! That's what I wanted to say with "markets always keep changing": I mean their volatility cycles and trending/ranging phases.
After all, price is just a number (exchange rate with spread and slippage) that goes up and down from continuous transactions, and all of its “movement” could be represented/visualized even with a single "perpetual candlestick" or vertical/horizontal axis ↕ ↔, without "time".
And as @VEE often stated, there must be universal balance/neutrality/equilibrium between all the main global currencies (not pairs) so they can properly "move" and work together; being like the perfect "Swiss Watch" of wealth-transfer: when value increases for one currency, it also has to proportionally decrease for other(s).
EDIT: Btw, you are welcome; it's my pleasure. You're one of the very few worth reading here, so thanks to you, REALLY
Edit: I hope you guys shorted the CY last night after that big pop last Friday, like all professional traders did. There is nothing random about any of this.
While I do agree with many aspects of your post, your statement referencing Renaissance Tech might probably have had great value twenty or so years ago.
I do not dispute that RT are successful. Currently though they have “closed fiscal books” to the public so no-one is aware of their current profit figures.
The reason I say they ARE profitable is because they were under an IRS examination in 2014 (as per the hyperlink) for their dealings in options (no mention of their trading currencies since the 80’s I think) so their success I do agree with for sure.
If I read correctly RT were queried over their transactions arrangement strategy with both Barclay’s & Deutche banks.
And if their volume of mathematicians, scientists and other PHd’s on their staff thought the FX algos were mathematically crackable then I imagine RT would have ventured heavily into FX again by now.
So I probably feel it is safe for me to assume that the highest level of a “maths based discipline” does not necessarily guarantee FX success.
And also not a psychologist discipline either.
It is interesting though to ask people to comprehend that in any FX pair, being traded at the SAME time by both a buyer & a seller, that it is possible BOTH the buyer & the seller could show a profit on their trade of that pair (closing at different times obviously).
Because of that possibility then naturally it is also possible for the buyer & the seller to BOTH LOSE on their trade on the same pair (closing out at different times again).
So I think that if it IS possible for both a buyer & a seller to lose on the same pair then (as it has already been postured on these forums) that the greater entity MM (not the “just below Interbank” MM Firms providing liquidity to Brokerage Houses) would see THEIR perfect business model as attempting to profit from BOTH the buyer & seller.
This can’t happen all the time of course, mostly some traders will win & some traders will lose.
In that sense alone, if there is some agreement, then I might suggest that some form of retail psychology (not a psychologist’s ‘psychology’) used to assess market structure & outline at the time a trade is considered, might actually be a strategy itself for retail to employ.
So Psychology gets a yes in my book. Not personal psychology, and not a psychologist’s ‘psychology’, but attempting to comprehend the highest level of “MM psychology” being applied to the FX market price behaviour.
Just some food for thought. All the best to all in the battle.
But the probabilities change dramatically in my favour when it corrects to efficiency which it always does🥴
I agree that it is not doable to make money in FX
longterm so you wont see many profitable track records over 3 years.
The easiest way make millions in this game is to open 50 accounts, trade them for 3 years, take the best one and attract dumb investors to make money from fees. There are legal ways to steal money, it is called capitalism baby!
1. Creating YouTube craps and pocket thousands of dollars only by increasing the number of viewers.
2. Selling books/eBooks and find some more victims of stupidity.
3. Establishing a brokerage company.
4. Selling EAs and magical indicators
A real story: once upon a time people from all over the world rushed to America to find gold in rivers. After years of trial guess who was the richest of all? The man who encouraged people to pursue their dreams and then sold them shovels!
How do the Darwinex and Zulu crowd do it?
30-60% per year is doable much "easier" than in FX.
I keep an eye on the new trend of AI Prediction. I don't have much hope in it, just keeping an eye on it.
Forex is different than Stocks, where everyone is on the lookout for the next MSFT of AMZN.
It's not like Real Estate in that they "Aren't creating new land, so you better buy now."
Mainly the difference is in that it's a comparison of one currency to another.
Unless it's a currency like Venezuela, the price actually just fluctuates.
You can keep an eye on Forex News, such as Non Farm Payrolls, but one announcement can send prices spiraling. Siting GBP 10/Oct/2019
Forex is safe, and profitable. Knowing your leverage and margin requirements is key to trading safe.
By selling premium options? Really because that's his strategy. This is very risky if you don't know and one trade can wipe out all the profit made.
If you know how to trade the underlying contract then you don't need to trade options.
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