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-   -   has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=948113)

diceman555 Oct 13, 2019 5:54pm | Post# 701

{quote} Hardly. Statistically you can't win 40% with RR 1:2. Your long run winning rate will be only 33%. Because the market is random (for PA, TA) In a random market: - if RR 1:1, statistically the TP or SL will be hit in 50% of cases; - if RR 1:2, statistically the TP will be hit in 33% of cases - and the SL in 66% of cases... So if 33 trades will make +$66, 66 trades will make -$66. Same boring 50-50 tie game ! {image}
What happens when it deviates away from those market efficient percentages

Nikl Oct 13, 2019 6:27pm | Post# 702

{quote} Hardly. Statistically you can't win 40% with RR 1:2. Your long run winning rate will be only 33%. Because the market is random (for PA, TA) In a random market: - if RR 1:1, statistically the TP or SL will be hit in 50% of cases; - if RR 1:2, statistically the TP will be hit in 33% of cases - and the SL in 66% of cases... So if 33 trades will make +$66, 66 trades will make -$66. Same boring 50-50 tie game ! {image}
So if I take 100 trades and religiously stick to an RR of 1:2, then proceed to have a 40% win rate My trading account won’t be up 20% at the end of the 100 trades ? (Not allowing for compounding)
40 wins = 2R x 40 = 80 reward
60 losses = -1R x 60 = -60 risk
80 reward - 60 risk = 20 reward ?

Constantino Oct 13, 2019 6:36pm | Post# 703

Get a mentor asap to spot your blind spots and also read this https://forums.babypips.com/t/the-10...ney/214330/982 which is the only thread i know where the guy hasnt lost a single trade and has posted so many screenshots of real money accounts that it's turned overwhelmingly legit

GEfx Oct 13, 2019 8:06pm | Post# 704

1 Attachment(s)
{quote} CADJPY (from 2016 on, 10-pip intervals) 100000011100110001010010001000110010001010001011110100111001011000001100001011110110000011000101110100010111100100000110010101101000010100010011010001010110110100110111100100100010000010001110111000110111111000011100111100111111001101111101110101000101100000011111111001010011101011100010101011011110000110101101001111111000101000111110011110001011100000011100110001010010001000110010001010001011110100111001011000001100001011110110000011000101110100010111100100000110010101101000010100010011010001010110110100110111100100100010000010001110111000110111111000011100111100111111001101111101110101000101100000011111111001010011101011100010101011011110000110101101001111111000101000111110011110001011011101101111110010010110011001101001111100011000100001001111101111011010010000001111100110101010010101010000001111110110011000011110010101011100010110001101110110000100101001110111101011001111001110000010010011010000000010101100100101100000010000111011110111010000111101111111011010010110000100110101111001111111011111000111110000101111001111111011001010101011110011100000000010010010011100100010101000010101000001101000010110001010001100111011101110110010110101101110010010001111000101011100100000111010000011110111010111001000111110101100100001100010001001000110100001111101110110011011001010001110011000100010110000101101000000000001011001000111110101110011011000111011001101001100011111111010010101111010001000110100000000001111111010010111000110111000000100000111110001110101101100100000010100000000000000010101001111101100011110001110010111010010100100001000011110011011100010101010111001101011110011110001100111001101100001101011010000001011100001101111010101111001100111001101000000000011001011110010110100001001001011111100111011100111111011100000110101110001111001011101111011001010101111000101101000011000011100011110100101010010110111010100000110001011000101100000001000101111110111001001100101001010011000001110110001110100001011101101110000000110100011100011010010110001000100010111010100011110010101010101111100010100101110001110100010010111101110101101111100101100000010110110001000001010101110000100110010010110001101110000001111101000100000011110000110110111111101000010110001111010111011110101001001100010011111000111010001111101100101100011000100001110100101110100010101100110000001010100101011011011110100111010000000100000011001101100000100011100101100001101111001111001111100100111011011111100101101110100101001001011111101111110110010101101101111011010111110011110100010101000110111100110100111110111...
I thought a proper response to this is the following chart:
Click to Enlarge

Name: cy.gif
Size: 341 KB

zghnno Oct 14, 2019 12:24am | Post# 705

{quote} I thought a proper response to this is the following chart: {image}
This is misleading:

 

  1. The price could've gone down even on positive news
  2. The spread widen make it impossible to catch the move unless gambling.

Having said that yes the price isn't random but your example doesn't fit the purpose.


josephcom Oct 14, 2019 1:05am | Post# 706

{quote} This is misleading: The price could've gone down even on positive news The spread widen make it impossible to catch the move unless gambling. Having said that yes the price isn't random but your example doesn't fit the purpose.
Well said. I've seen numerous occasion on which the market reaction to a positive data release was negative! Or many times just no reaction at all.

And I know market moves for a reason. I didn't say it's as random as molecular movements, but all I'm saying is when the market reaction is almost unknown, we'd better see it as random altogether.

I hope you can see my point.

Viktory Oct 14, 2019 2:51am | Post# 707

{quote} Well said. I've seen numerous occasion on which the market reaction to a positive data release was negative! Or many times just no reaction at all. And I know market moves for a reason. I didn't say it's as random as molecular movements, but all I'm saying is when the market reaction is almost unknown, we'd better see it as random altogether. I hope you can see my point.
I asked you a question:
"DD 31% at the beginning, mostly around 15%, high risk high reward". {quote} {quote} {quote} I didn't see it... What are the rest of its main stats? Like: - Avg. Monthly % - Avg. Win/Loss - Longs/Shorts Won - Avg. Trade Length - Profit Factor - Sharpe Ratio Track Record and Trading Privileges verified? Which broker?
Don't expect people to kindly interact with you, when you are not willing to do the same in response...

Viktory Oct 14, 2019 3:08am | Post# 708

{quote} Yes, between strong movements and long term direction, caused BY macroeconomic fundamental reasons and big aggregate supply/demand, everything else is just "random noise" in which the "manipulation game" usually takes part...
{quote} I thought a proper response to this is the following chart: {image}
Between strong movements and long term "course", caused by macroeconomic fundamental reasons and big boy's aggregate supply/demand...
{quote} Markets never change. Ever. The price algorithm is doing the very same thing since 2008. That is how far we went back in back testing. Just to find there is absolutely no difference in between the 28 forex pairs, gold, oil and de30 we did run the tests at. What appears to the eye as a change, is the slow or the fast gearing, the pairs do enter at different periods of time. One major evidence you can use agains my statement is the chart’s candles. Unfortunately, within a single candle a lot took place inside it. The candle can’t properly...
... everything else appears-seems just as "random noise" in which the "manipulation game" usually takes part (with misleading directional behavior and many "liquidity runs" constantly taking place within all "price scales").

---

And talking again about randomness...
{quote} As I've explained in my previous posts, "Randomness" in this context is when each individual move has nothing to do with its previous move/moves. In other words, the probability of going 1 unit towards north is exactly equal to the probability of going 1 unit towards south. Let's take a look at the following series: 10001011001111110010110100111011101110000000010011000011001110110000111010111000100000111011111001 I flipped a coin. Each time it was "head" I showed it with a 0 and, on the other hand, I showed "tail" with a 1. Do you think...
... the good @ProfitFarmer once told me a very good point to consider:

"The thing is, in trading/Forex, each move is dependent of the "previous history", simply because unlike with coins flipping, or roulette... someone ONLY can get paid by taking the opposite action to his first... in layman terms: closing the trade!... so without closing it, the "previous action" won't run its cycle... hence: no realized profit/loss".

... so despite price looking mostly random between fundamental moves and macroeconomic general bias, it definitely isn't. Although it's extremely hard to accurately spot discern → understand and exploit with good enough consistency; month after month, year after year.

---

@MoneyZilla:

Yes, you're right! That's what I wanted to say with "markets always keep changing": I mean their volatility cycles and trending/ranging phases.

After all, price is just a number (exchange rate with spread and slippage) that goes up and down from continuous transactions, and all of its “movement” could be represented/visualized even with a single "perpetual candlestick" or vertical/horizontal axis ↕ ↔, without "time".

And as @VEE often stated, there must be universal balance/neutrality/equilibrium between all the main global currencies (not pairs) so they can properly "move" and work together; being like the perfect "Swiss Watch" of wealth-transfer: when value increases for one currency, it also has to proportionally decrease for other(s).

EDIT: Btw, you are welcome; it's my pleasure. You're one of the very few worth reading here, so thanks to you, REALLY

GEfx Oct 14, 2019 6:20am | Post# 709

{quote} Well said. I've seen numerous occasion on which the market reaction to a positive data release was negative! Or many times just no reaction at all. And I know market moves for a reason. I didn't say it's as random as molecular movements, but all I'm saying is when the market reaction is almost unknown, we'd better see it as random altogether. I hope you can see my point.
You 2 have just admitted that you don't know how to prepare for and then trade FA. If market reaction to an FA confuses you, then 1.) You don't understand the basics of the FA and 2.) You don't understand the basics of the pair you are trading, and 3.) You aren't prepared from a TA perspective for trading FA. But I do concede one point you made: based on the lack of knowledge you have demonstrated in your posts, you should consider most of what you are seeing forex as random. Good luck!
Edit: I hope you guys shorted the CY last night after that big pop last Friday, like all professional traders did. There is nothing random about any of this.

TimeTells Oct 14, 2019 9:10am | Post# 710

{quote} This is completely false. Just like everyone else the "Psychologists" have 0% chance of success in the long run and the supporting evidence is everywhere. On the other side, the most successful hedge fund in the world (Renaissance Technologies) is run entirely by scientists - mathematicians, physicist , statisticians, astronomers and programmers. If you don't have proven, quantifiable, back tested and ideally automated strategy - then you simply don't have a strategy! Basically...


While I do agree with many aspects of your post, your statement referencing Renaissance Tech might probably have had great value twenty or so years ago.

I do not dispute that RT are successful. Currently though they have “closed fiscal books” to the public so no-one is aware of their current profit figures.

The reason I say they ARE profitable is because they were under an IRS examination in 2014 (as per the hyperlink) for their dealings in options (no mention of their trading currencies since the 80’s I think) so their success I do agree with for sure.

If I read correctly RT were queried over their transactions arrangement strategy with both Barclay’s & Deutche banks.

And if their volume of mathematicians, scientists and other PHd’s on their staff thought the FX algos were mathematically crackable then I imagine RT would have ventured heavily into FX again by now.

So I probably feel it is safe for me to assume that the highest level of a “maths based discipline” does not necessarily guarantee FX success.

And also not a psychologist discipline either.



It is interesting though to ask people to comprehend that in any FX pair, being traded at the SAME time by both a buyer & a seller, that it is possible BOTH the buyer & the seller could show a profit on their trade of that pair (closing at different times obviously).

Because of that possibility then naturally it is also possible for the buyer & the seller to BOTH LOSE on their trade on the same pair (closing out at different times again).


So I think that if it IS possible for both a buyer & a seller to lose on the same pair then (as it has already been postured on these forums) that the greater entity MM (not the “just below Interbank” MM Firms providing liquidity to Brokerage Houses) would see THEIR perfect business model as attempting to profit from BOTH the buyer & seller.

This can’t happen all the time of course, mostly some traders will win & some traders will lose.



In that sense alone, if there is some agreement, then I might suggest that some form of retail psychology (not a psychologist’s ‘psychology’) used to assess market structure & outline at the time a trade is considered, might actually be a strategy itself for retail to employ.


So Psychology gets a yes in my book. Not personal psychology, and not a psychologist’s ‘psychology’, but attempting to comprehend the highest level of “MM psychology” being applied to the FX market price behaviour.

Just some food for thought. All the best to all in the battle.

TudorIoan Oct 14, 2019 9:34am | Post# 711

{quote} What happens when it deviates away from those market efficient percentages
Simple answer... would you know when is that deviation coming ?
Inserted Video


{quote} So if I take 100 trades and religiously stick to an RR of 1:2, then proceed to have a 40% win rate My trading account won’t be up 20% at the end of the 100 trades ? (Not allowing for compounding) 40 wins = 2R x 40 = 80 reward 60 losses = -1R x 60 = -60 risk 80 reward - 60 risk = 20 reward ?
You can't do it only from the probabilities game. The probs stays always 50-50 ...forever, whatever Risk-Reward-Ratio you combine!

diceman555 Oct 14, 2019 11:42am | Post# 712

{quote} Simple answer... would you know when is that deviation coming ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olZLIC4T9uE {quote} You can't do it only from the probabilities game. The probs stays always 50-50 ...forever, whatever Risk-Reward-Ratio you combine!
Simple answer no.

But the probabilities change dramatically in my favour when it corrects to efficiency which it always does🥴

Batuvisser Oct 14, 2019 3:26pm | Post# 713

I agree that it is not doable to make money in FX
longterm so you wont see many profitable track records over 3 years.

The easiest way make millions in this game is to open 50 accounts, trade them for 3 years, take the best one and attract dumb investors to make money from fees. There are legal ways to steal money, it is called capitalism baby!

josephcom Oct 14, 2019 5:32pm | Post# 714

There are legal ways to steal money, it is called capitalism baby!
I know a couple of more ways:

1. Creating YouTube craps and pocket thousands of dollars only by increasing the number of viewers.
2. Selling books/eBooks and find some more victims of stupidity.
3. Establishing a brokerage company.
4. Selling EAs and magical indicators

A real story: once upon a time people from all over the world rushed to America to find gold in rivers. After years of trial guess who was the richest of all? The man who encouraged people to pursue their dreams and then sold them shovels!

MrBullBear Oct 14, 2019 7:02pm | Post# 715

To anyone still interested in fighting, check the following video: This will bring the ultimate meltdown to this thread ; ) https://youtu.be/bE4KDIcliHM
Haha.. this guy on your video is talking about scam and in the end, he is the scam. Luring traders and wannabes to his business. Hahahaha

alphadude Oct 14, 2019 8:23pm | Post# 716

How do the Darwinex and Zulu crowd do it?

Viktory Oct 14, 2019 9:26pm | Post# 717

{quote} Haha.. this guy on your video is talking about scam and in the end, he is the scam. Luring traders and wannabes to his business. Hahahaha
No, that dude and his options trading strategy, are legit...
30-60% per year is doable much "easier" than in FX.

MrBullBear Oct 14, 2019 11:09pm | Post# 718

{quote} No, that dude and his options trading strategy, are legit... 30-60% per year is doable much "easier" than in FX.
real story: once upon a time people from all over the world rushed to America to find gold in rivers. After years of trial guess who was the richest of all? The man who encouraged people to pursue their dreams and then sold them shovels! (Taken from joseph)

qboney Oct 14, 2019 11:29pm | Post# 719

I keep an eye on the new trend of AI Prediction. I don't have much hope in it, just keeping an eye on it.

Forex is different than Stocks, where everyone is on the lookout for the next MSFT of AMZN.
It's not like Real Estate in that they "Aren't creating new land, so you better buy now."
Mainly the difference is in that it's a comparison of one currency to another.

Unless it's a currency like Venezuela, the price actually just fluctuates.
You can keep an eye on Forex News, such as Non Farm Payrolls, but one announcement can send prices spiraling. Siting GBP 10/Oct/2019

Forex is safe, and profitable. Knowing your leverage and margin requirements is key to trading safe.

zghnno Oct 15, 2019 12:11am | Post# 720

{quote} No, that dude and his options trading strategy, are legit... 30-60% per year is doable much "easier" than in FX.

By selling premium options? Really because that's his strategy. This is very risky if you don't know and one trade can wipe out all the profit made.

If you know how to trade the underlying contract then you don't need to trade options.


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