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-   -   Anyone Else Frustrated w/ Mouteki but don't want to give up? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=9459)

stevenali Oct 27, 2006 10:04am | Post# 21

my setting
 
1 Attachment(s)
1. open daily TF draw Mouteki
2. open 4hr TF draw Mouteki
3. open 1hr TF draw Mouteki

Put Fibbo from previous week
Put Stoch 14,3,3

If Mouteki in 4h give a signal for entry, i always look at stoch at daily.. is it overbought/oversold or not... if not, i entry the market..

ussualy the line of mouteki in daily tf can be our target profit. price often hard to break on that support/resistance level
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stevenali Oct 27, 2006 10:12am | Post# 22

sorry i forgot
 
I forgot to explain my chart

Pink Line is Mouteki 1hr
Blue line is Mouteki 4hr
Orange Line is Mouteki Daily

Mouteki is SIMPLICITY in TRADING.. but it needs FILTER

MOUTEKI + GREAT DISCIPLINE + GOOD FILTER = HOLY GRAIL ??

i hope so

stockwet Oct 27, 2006 10:28am | Post# 23

Market dynamics change and so too you have to adapt your strategy.
I think I'm going to be a bit of a rebel here an disagree with this statement. I know I'll take flak for this, but, I think the markets are more consistent than we as traders actually think. I'm pretty sure that the same trading strategies applied successfully 100 years ago are still working in the markets today. The goal, in my opinion, is to find a consitently profitable strategy and stick to it's rules. Whenever we thing the market has changed, we're inclined to change our rules. When we change our rules, we open ourselves up to uncertainty, fear, and doubt.

The issue with systems isn't whether or not the market changes. By and large, I think the markets stay the same. The issue is how well does a system react to market cycles. These market cycles are what, in my opinion, traders call "market changes". I don't think the market is changing in these cases, I think it's just in a particular cycle type that the particular system does not handle well.

I'd suggest taking a really good look at the Mouteki failed trades and see if you can find a pattern in them that could be corrected to turn trades into B/E or winners.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw out a dissenting opinion.

stockwet

BeachBum Oct 27, 2006 11:27am | Post# 24

Another rebel weighs in.........
 
I agree! I have been using the same trading strategy since the first of this year. There are times when it performs better than other times, but it always performs well, as long as I DON"T CHANGE THE RULES! I consider this to be a reaction to the cycles stockwet refers to. I read somewhere recently, (just wish I could remember where), that it is possible to trace patterns and cycles in the stock market back to it's beginning (over 100 years). History does repeat itself, on both large and small scales. If as traders we take this into consideration, we can trade profitably, minimizing the losses and maximizing the profits by understanding and working within these market cycles.

I think I'm going to be a bit of a rebel here an disagree with this statement. I know I'll take flak for this, but, I think the markets are more consistent than we as traders actually think. I'm pretty sure that the same trading strategies applied successfully 100 years ago are still working in the markets today. The goal, in my opinion, is to find a consitently profitable strategy and stick to it's rules. Whenever we thing the market has changed, we're inclined to change our rules. When we change our rules, we open ourselves up to uncertainty, fear, and doubt.

The issue with systems isn't whether or not the market changes. By and large, I think the markets stay the same. The issue is how well does a system react to market cycles. These market cycles are what, in my opinion, traders call "market changes". I don't think the market is changing in these cases, I think it's just in a particular cycle type that the particular system does not handle well.

I'd suggest taking a really good look at the Mouteki failed trades and see if you can find a pattern in them that could be corrected to turn trades into B/E or winners.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw out a dissenting opinion.

stockwet

et_phonehome_2 Oct 27, 2006 12:29pm | Post# 25

I forgot to explain my chart

Pink Line is Mouteki 1hr
Blue line is Mouteki 4hr
Orange Line is Mouteki Daily

Mouteki is SIMPLICITY in TRADING.. but it needs FILTER

MOUTEKI + GREAT DISCIPLINE + GOOD FILTER = HOLY GRAIL ??

i hope so
Stevenali

How do you plot the 1HR and Daily on the 4HR TF? For the prior weeks FIB, do you draw them in or how do you obtain it?

ET

stevenali Oct 27, 2006 8:48pm | Post# 26

drawing Mouteki
 
i think it's very simple.. Open a single GBPUSD chart, on tf 1h draw mouteki trend line... then change chart's tf to 4h, and draw mouteki.. change to daily, then draw mouteki

for drawing Fibbo... just use high and low from previus week

YasirYar Oct 29, 2006 3:20pm | Post# 27

Stevenali

How do you plot the 1HR and Daily on the 4HR TF? For the prior weeks FIB, do you draw them in or how do you obtain it?

ET
i personally think ur complicating matters by asking himthat.. and using so many different indicators on your charts.. it doesnt help.. beleive me..

StockKJay Oct 29, 2006 3:57pm | Post# 28

I am still testing the system trading lightly. I am doing this mostly to give myself time to work on complimenting systems I can use with mouteki as well as filters. Though I can say this, I have been averaging 250 pips/week trading rough Mouteki system. Now because I trade 4 pairs I have to trade lighter, though... I like diversification in all my trading systems. Right when you believe EUR/USD is the bad pair, it gives you an entire move that GBP/USD didnt give to you.

YasirYar Oct 29, 2006 8:18pm | Post# 29

I am still testing the system trading lightly. I am doing this mostly to give myself time to work on complimenting systems I can use with mouteki as well as filters. Though I can say this, I have been averaging 250 pips/week trading rough Mouteki system. Now because I trade 4 pairs I have to trade lighter, though... I like diversification in all my trading systems. Right when you believe EUR/USD is the bad pair, it gives you an entire move that GBP/USD didnt give to you.
glad to hear ur making pips.. do u trade every breakout on moutaki? or only the ones u feel are safe?

pharmadap Oct 30, 2006 10:08pm | Post# 30

Filter for Mouteki method...
 
Hello everyone..

I have gone through nearly all post here as i am a lil bit new here.As i was reading through,something just came to my mind.As anyone tried the vegas 4 hour tunnel before?I think using only the weekly chart analysis to identify the current week trend could be of a great help.I really think if u have a demand line breakout while you are also in a bull week,the signal might be a lil more stronger and vice versa.Will be waiting for more suggestion from you all.

YasirYar Oct 30, 2006 10:11pm | Post# 31

Hello everyone..

I have gone through nearly all post here as i am a lil bit new here.As i was reading through,something just came to my mind.As anyone tried the vegas 4 hour tunnel before?I think using only the weekly chart analysis to identify the current week trend could be of a great help.I really think if u have a demand line breakout while you are also in a bull week,the signal might be a lil more stronger and vice versa.Will be waiting for more suggestion from you all.
vegas method didnt work out for me.. and yes.. i do look for confirmations on bigger timeframes before going in.. lately i havent been able to o tht..

zoopy Oct 30, 2006 10:20pm | Post# 32

I'm busy testing that approach right now
 
Hello everyone..

I have gone through nearly all post here as i am a lil bit new here.As i was reading through,something just came to my mind.As anyone tried the vegas 4 hour tunnel before?I think using only the weekly chart analysis to identify the current week trend could be of a great help.I really think if u have a demand line breakout while you are also in a bull week,the signal might be a lil more stronger and vice versa.Will be waiting for more suggestion from you all.
Interesting that you mentioned that. I'm actually busy testing that now. I thought about it last week and decided to draw the trendlines on my weekly chart instead of using the 21 EMA and 5 SMA to determine trend direction. That way if the trend is up, I only go long. Then... when price hits the extreme fibs on the VWB daily chart I trade towards the tunnel.

athalon7 Oct 30, 2006 11:31pm | Post# 33

I think I'm going to be a bit of a rebel here an disagree with this statement. I know I'll take flak for this, but, I think the markets are more consistent than we as traders actually think. I'm pretty sure that the same trading strategies applied successfully 100 years ago are still working in the markets today. The goal, in my opinion, is to find a consitently profitable strategy and stick to it's rules. Whenever we thing the market has changed, we're inclined to change our rules. When we change our rules, we open ourselves up to uncertainty, fear, and doubt.

The issue with systems isn't whether or not the market changes. By and large, I think the markets stay the same. The issue is how well does a system react to market cycles. These market cycles are what, in my opinion, traders call "market changes". I don't think the market is changing in these cases, I think it's just in a particular cycle type that the particular system does not handle well.

I'd suggest taking a really good look at the Mouteki failed trades and see if you can find a pattern in them that could be corrected to turn trades into B/E or winners.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw out a dissenting opinion.

stockwet
For what it is worth, I agree here. Up $3800 then down $800 I would take anyday. The failed trades maybe cannot be explained. You will not win every trade, we all know that. There is not a system that will win every trade, again we all know that. This guy posted his system last month. It looks very promising. I am going to try and find maybe 1 or two filters I am comfortable with and see what happens over 6 months and tweak from there if needed.

I am glad this guy shared his thoughts, and I can understand him not wanting to spend all day teaching. He did his part. Unless he purposely left out something, and we will never know, it is a very good starting point if nothing else.

I just read an article by a respected forex "expert" who said price can lie, but momentum tells truth. He likened it to a poker player who plays the player and not the cards. Moutecki says opposite. I suspect they both are right to a degree.

I personally am going to look hard at opening up 2 lots (or .2), and have a profit taken at one point, and leave the other one run with a trailing stop. After all my research on this forum it looks like this is the best strategy.

Remember- This is counter trend strategy when looking at possible filters. I am going to look a momentum filter.

Are we better off the guy showed up? I think so.

Ahil Oct 31, 2006 2:53am | Post# 34

For what it is worth, I agree here. Up $3800 then down $800 I would take anyday. The failed trades maybe cannot be explained. You will not win every trade, we all know that. There is not a system that .
I think he is down for $3000 not $800, but you should be taking pips not $ because we dont know how many lots were in each trade and it complicates things

talk pips

StockKJay Oct 31, 2006 12:30pm | Post# 35

glad to hear ur making pips.. do u trade every breakout on moutaki? or only the ones u feel are safe?
I dont trade every breakout. I filter trades by looking back no less than 4 months. If mouteki says short eur/usd and it is sitting at 1.2460 or so like it was last week or the week before .. I would not take it. Sure USD could continue its run but... I would feel much safer filtering in the fact that it had already gained 250 pips in 1 1/2 weeks. EUR/AUD right now is puzzling me. I took and lost on a long signal and wont take a short signal because of the 400 pip run or so. Common sense is needed... as well as a little luck. I use other systems as well that will often help confirm trades. It is still a work in progress. I would say for certain though that Mouteki has helped my overall profitability in Forex.

Remember guys, a 50% system can make you a whole lot of money. I would say Mouteki is between 60-70%.

Gandolf Oct 31, 2006 4:00pm | Post# 36

not profitable yet
 
i watch 9 pairs on 4 hour charts. when i get a signal i switch to another profile in metatrader that has a week, day, 4 hour and 1 hour chart with Mouteki trend lines for that pair. i too have noticed that the trend lines on the 1 hour and daily chart effect price action. i am also drawing lines at areas of support and resistance. in addition, on the day chart i have a semi-vegas 24 EMA with fib channels so that i don't take a signal at what will probably be the end of a move. with all that, my plan is to take only the signals that have room to move (50 pips). but i find that i am making mistakes. i take an entry after i think i have checked everything and then find something seemingly obvious that i missed. and perhaps i am setting my trailing stops a little too tight. end result, i am losing most of my trades. since i am trading small lots until i start making money it is not breaking the bank. any suggestions?

Nick_likes_pips Oct 31, 2006 10:05pm | Post# 37

quick question
 
Hey guys, just a quick question, for those of you trading 'mouteki', on average how many signals do you get per week/month? I know it'll obviously change week to week, month to month, but I'm curious. Thanks.

salpoe Oct 31, 2006 10:10pm | Post# 38

For what it worth
 
I have noted that if you enter the trade at the alert/open price, more times than not you will get a min of 20 pip move and not see move against that would stop you out at 10 pips. Most recently you can check the US/CHF, GBP/US and EUR/US moves last night and today. My point is that if you take the Mouteki plan as he scripted it and make no deviations there is a better chance of making pips. And with proper money mgt / risk to reward you should be profitable.

YasirYar Oct 31, 2006 10:12pm | Post# 39

Hey guys, just a quick question, for those of you trading 'mouteki', on average how many signals do you get per week/month? I know it'll obviously change week to week, month to month, but I'm curious. Thanks.
once daily on major pairs.. it can be less at times though..

salpoe Oct 31, 2006 10:13pm | Post# 40

Number of trades/alerts
 
Hey guys, just a quick question, for those of you trading 'mouteki', on average how many signals do you get per week/month? I know it'll obviously change week to week, month to month, but I'm curious. Thanks.
In 5 trading days that I have kept the alerts for the GBP/US, EUR/US and US/CHF, I have 20 alerts.


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