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-   -   Lazy Open Trading (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=945102)

SwingMan Sep 2, 2019 5:51am | Post# 1

Lazy Open Trading
 
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In the LazyTMA thread I and other members have posted some ideas related to daily open trading.

I think that for lazy traders is important to have statistical data for the intervals of trading grids.

Sure, the Gann ATR-fractions are a good tool and I just want to analyze the idea with the distances from Open to the Highs/Lows.

Here is an indicator "smLazyOpen BarRanges_v1.0"
with which these figures are calculated separately for rising and falling trends.
In further indicators, I will use the DoubleHull indicator, so that a possible analysis for the match of the fast and slow Hull average can be made.
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smLazyOpen BarRanges_v1.0.ex4

Merka Sep 2, 2019 6:51am | Post# 2

Hello SwingMan
The daily open trade for lazy traders as me or Dave it's all about money management in my opinion as I guess already Dave mentioned to you.

But in the spirit of this thread let's try to predict from daily open where price is likely to go.
I noticed using R4M channel ADR indicator that if daily open is above upper band or very close to the upper band most likely the price will fall down to give us the R:R 1:1 wanted.
But, as you know, R4M indicator repaint so don't know how useful is for real time trading

Cheers

SwingMan Sep 2, 2019 7:32am | Post# 3

...let's try to predict from daily open where price is likely to go.
No, because nobody can predict the movements of the day.

What one can do is to calculate the statistical deviations from the Open.

With the posted indicator you can see that there are different values when the trend rises or falls. I have no idea if this can be useful, and only experts like you or Dave can evaluate this!

OAPDave Sep 2, 2019 9:52am | Post# 4

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May be another way to look at Range expansion ?
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OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 3:30am | Post# 5

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Just trying to jump on the Range expansion as it builds from the Open, There are NO different setting it's constant from time-frame to time-frame but initial Risk varies from pair to pair in The GbpUsd case its around 31 pips
In the case of the GbpAud initial risk is around 46 pips, which is more than I am comfortable with so I let the trend/expand a little more and trade only 1 level/box of risk which is around 23 pips
The idea is very simple controlled RR same setting and rules for all pairs and time-frames , history on chart to the left to check out past performance of levels, the amount of levels show range targets
Dave
Any thoughts and ideas for improvement welcome
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OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 5:08am | Post# 6

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Anyone think that looking at a Daily with this set up would help suggest which way out of our box we should expect ?
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OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 5:29am | Post# 7

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Last example of the day using same rules but with a pair that as a small range
Sorry for boring you guys but I find it effective and very simple but alas NOT THE HOLY GRAIL
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SwingMan Sep 3, 2019 5:30am | Post# 8

...Any thoughts and ideas for improvement welcome
Later...

-------------------------------------------
Thanks for the posting.

I'm doing some numerical analysis now, and if there's something new, I'll make comments.

Now I'm interested in comparing your numerical values and want to know how is the grid distance calculated.
Is the daily range taken into account? Is it smoothed? Which period?

As example, you have on GBPUSD a daily range 15.5*8=124 pips, and on GBPAUD 23*8=184 pips.
To continue I have to retrace these values.

OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 5:45am | Post# 9

{quote} Later... ------------------------------------------- Thanks for the posting. I'm doing some numerical analysis now, and if there's something new, I'll make comments. Now I'm interested in comparing your numerical values and want to know how is the grid distance calculated. Is the daily range taken into account? Is it smoothed? Which period? As example, you have on GBPUSD a daily range 15.5*8=124 pips, and on GBPAUD 23*8=184 pips. To continue I have to retrace these values.
George
All I have done is use Nih98 (Open Price Pct Range Mapping Tool) how he arrive's at the figures I have no idea, then I have spent time watching my charts with it on, and observing price action at the various levels
I am a very visual guy and just let my eyes tell me if I can see some sort of pattern recognition that I can take advantage of , I am ashamed to say I have no idea how you guys construct these indicators but I can tell you if they do the job
Dave

SwingMan Sep 3, 2019 6:23am | Post# 10

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....I have no idea how you guys construct these indicators...
That's not good, now I have to rediscover the wheel ...

I have read the ideas of Vegas Tunnel System.
On pages 8 and 9 you will find very good approaches, which I also used. Just as a warning: the calculation with the median and deviations I will program similar in the next time, and I'm curious if anything brings.

However, as far as the Vegas indicators are concerned, they are far from practical use, so I'm not surprised that nobody could succeed with the system.
VEGAS WEALTH BUILDER PART II.doc

OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 6:27am | Post# 11

{quote} That's not good, now I have to rediscover the wheel ...
George
Cannot think of a better man for the job !
Remember I am only a humble tester
Dave

SwingMan Sep 3, 2019 6:49am | Post# 12

...Remember I am only a humble tester Dave
And I am only a lazy trader...

Merka Sep 3, 2019 7:00am | Post# 13

@Dave
Do you agree with me the daily open trade like you do is all about MM to succeed?
It's very hard to predict price direction from the daily open so if someone get SL than only a good MM can rescue the situation.

OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 7:02am | Post# 14

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Yes but a clever one !
If you look at the grid most pairs hit there Daily average on the lows, which seem to be around the 0.875 to 1.0 levels we have now had a sudden spike do I want to take the Buy , no I will pass on that as to get to any target on the upside it will have to be a well above average Range day
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OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 7:05am | Post# 15

@Dave Do you agree with me the daily open trade like you do is all about MM to succeed? It's very hard to predict price direction from the daily open so if someone get SL than only a good MM can rescue the situation.
Merka
Yes I do agree with you, because to me trading Pure price is about as fast as you can get, not forgetting our price filter be it 15 pip 31 pips or what ever

Merka Sep 3, 2019 7:19am | Post# 16

Yes but a clever one ! If you look at the grid most pairs hit there Daily average on the lows, which seem to be around the 0.875 to 1.0 levels we have now had a sudden spike do I want to take the Buy , no I will pass on that as to get to any target on the upside it will have to be a well above average Range day {image} {image}
Sorry, I didn't get properly what you are trying to point out.

OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 7:34am | Post# 17

{quote} Sorry, I didn't get properly what you are trying to point out.
Give me a minute just having my lunch then I will reply

Merka Sep 3, 2019 7:46am | Post# 18

{quote} Give me a minute just having my lunch then I will reply
No problems bro
Take your time

OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 8:07am | Post# 19

{quote} That's not good, now I have to rediscover the wheel ... I have read the ideas of Vegas Tunnel System. On pages 8 and 9 you will find very good approaches, which I also used. Just as a warning: the calculation with the median and deviations I will program similar in the next time, and I'm curious if anything brings. However, as far as the Vegas indicators are concerned, they are far from practical use, so I'm not surprised that nobody could succeed with the system. {file}
George
Not sure if this is going to help in any way, I remember a post by Nih98 talking about contract values, example If one Pair was 10 a contract and the other at 5 then the 5 one will trade in a bigger range so to equal the monetary values at the end of a move, I know that's a bit crude but it explains why some pairs have a different gap value than others
I will try and find the post
Dave

OAPDave Sep 3, 2019 8:27am | Post# 20

{quote} Sorry, I didn't get properly what you are trying to point out.
Merka
First to add to your question about money-management, we have to accept that the market makers have more ways to separate us from our cash then we have of doing it to them, so we have to accept we will lose some trades,with that in mind we want it to cause us the least amount of pain it can, hence The SECRET SAUCE yes our money-management that lets us live to fight another day.
Your question on the post you did not quite understand , I am just going to answer in my usual simple way of how I look at things
Take a look at the Daily chart I posted see the indicator at the bottom look how many time price it gets above 100 pip line for example so when it reaches that would you cease trading or expect price to keep expanding more
Another way, assuming you have your 15 min chart like mine is we have the ability to look left and see how many levels price passes through in a day this shows us Big Range days and Days that are not so Big.Just count them.
As a question to you what could you reasonably expect to see if you spotted 2,3 4 or more tight range days or indeed if you seen 2,3,4 or more extra large range days we can see all this clearly from our grid ?
Hope that helps
Dave


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