Retail Heavy in EUR and piling in.
DXY had structure break to upside - it's the clue I wanted for aligning to Longer term OF.
Looking for trading ops that align w Sentiment and MS
Hope you all are making profit out there. DXY structure break was huge clue and we have been waiting to strike all week based on pre-trading week analysis and events that began to play out.
Here are some of the results of myself and others this week using Sentiment and Market Structure (Results in PIPS Gain/Loss - not leverage too)
@Profitgrowth did you align yourself to strike USD long? What about others?
No I didn't , the sentiment indi didn't seem to be showing anything much?
Even using none of the tools or ideas that I share here, you posted a DXY chart expecting a bounce from there. What changed?
Look out for an email for a video analysis that covers the week ahead.
In the video, I talk about High Probability Targets as well as How I use a Fib Tool in a non-traditional way for Percentages of a move.
One of the members in our SentiFX community was asking to know more about me, thought I would share it here for anyone interested:
I started trading penny stocks in 2004ish. What a lesson. You want to talk about manipulated markets!! I was in a bunch of forums and newsletters and what I didn’t know at the time was a thing called pump and dump. These folks would pump up some crap penny stock and it would go to the moon, then they would dump it to all the people jumping on board. So basically, they got in early, pumped it up – people started buying (where they were selling). I learned what it truly meant to be a bag holder and price never – ever returned back anywhere near the entry. Talk about pain when something has run up 100s of percentage points or even 2500%+ many times and then it go back to zero. Then I switched to small cap and mid cap stocks. Eventually started trading only the 3x leveraged ETFs.
I bought a few thousand dollars’ worth of FB stock on the IPO (2009??) – I think around $18 or $19 if I remember right. It immediately started crashing down and I got out. What I learned is that I wasn’t a buy and hold person. If I held on until today – well, that would be worth many times that now. Not my style. I did well with the ETFs so I stayed there for a while. I had found out about the FX market eventually and was very intrigued. I really liked that I could leverage it like penny stocks and control my risk. What I quickly discovered is the FX market didn’t have directional wind. You’d get into something and immediately get killed or it would go in your favor for many hours, only to come back and be in a loss later. I studied and studied and studied the markets. Countless hours trading all timeframes, marking up charts, reading everything I could. I couldn’t understand for the longest how I could do well trading equities but was getting destroyed in FX.
Eventually switched to Futures where I traded GC (Gold) mostly. It was here that I learned all about REAL order flow and what really moves the markets. I also began to see how the markets were highly manipulated by those who had the fat pockets. After years of Trading Futures and really getting in the weeds of market structure, order flow, and the games they played... I began to see what really mattered and what didn’t.
I also learned volume profile in Futures which took me to a new level in understanding the market once I was able to SEE it in a different way. Seeing something in a different light changes the way you think about things.
I took that knowledge back to the FX market and started using Sentiment (tracked manually in EXCEL – what a pain). I started noticing patterns and traded them and started finally succeeding in FX once I figured out the game that is played. The market manipulators have access to ALL orders so they know when one side is overloaded and they take them out.
This is the game that’s played in Futures – and definitely in FX.
If they know that too many people are loaded up in the direction they want price to go, they take stops first then aggressively push in the direction since there is no more order resistance in the way.
After tracking and carefully studying Market Structure Patterns in combination with Sentiment… I saw in FX what I was looking for. It was very similar to watching real orders in Futures and seeing the orders shift. I needed to know positioning to know which side was likely to get taken out. Sentiment gave me that edge.
At some point I was studying Python and R to do statistical analysis and always had the vision of having 1,000 plus robots (aka employees) working the FX market for me around the clock.
I studied algorithmic trading and met Bob along the journey.
Bob is a technical guru in computer science, math, statistics, and programming. Excellent at data analysis studies and visualizations – especially with R. Bob has truly unbelievable skills that I truly admire.
I needed his help to create this tool. I knew if we could only create it to be like it is now – that we would get deeper insight into the retail order positioning over time. He wasn’t much into the idea of discretionary trading… so I shared the vision with him of using it as a guide to turn bots on and off so that they could increase their probabilities. Bob was intrigued and agreed to help develop the tool.
For me - Excel was too painful to keep tracking everything manually. I needed to see animations in a simple to understand format.
So we built the SentiFX Sentiment Analysis Suite over many… many …months…. Then I started using it manually to verify the tool worked as intended and with the way I traded Sentiment and Market Structure.
I tested the tool real-time and…
It gave MORE of an EDGE than what I was expecting!! I saw more detail with the bubble movements. Their change over time - and size changes over time. I couldn’t see any of that with Excel.
Since we built the tool to be very specific but simple – we could quickly see what retail was doing at a glance.
The included playback feature was SO POWERFUL. We could now see patterns that weren’t available otherwise. This compounded an already strong edge with understanding Market Structure and Order Flow patterns.
Finally, I was able to see the FX markets in a NEW NON TRADITIONAL LIGHT that showed me how the retail orders were working – not that much different than seeing orders in FUTURES. Even though we don’t see the real orders, we see how the sheep are positioning and changing their positions – and that’s all we need!
I was finally able to see more deeply into what was going on in the market.
I eventually want to use the tool to turn bots on and off so they can exploit the market when conditions are favorable.
I’d like to even make proven ETF type portfolios of bots that people can invest in. That all might be dreaming too big for now.
Oh, and I also tried to catch the TOP in Silver that year that it had the HUGE BULL Run, I shorted the heck out of it and got my face ripped off. When I couldn't take the pain anymore, I exited with just a little bit of my initial investment left - then Silver crashed literally 2 days later and never returned I believe. LOL.
I also love trading manually and being intimately involved with the markets. I enjoy constant learning and studying everything that I can about the markets… and I enjoy teaching what I know.
I am so excited that you can be part of this journey with us. We can ride the coat tails of the market manipulators together!
EURUSD - received an email alert from our tool - BUY SIGNAL and EU broke structure to the upside.
Great opportunity to go long EU!!! As always - we share this info in real time - not hindsight.
Real traders assess the probabilities and take the trade. We don't have the luxury of hindsight moves to take hindsight trades to make money.
Week after week we use Sentiment and Market Structure to guide us to take trades and usually Tuesday or Wednesdays to Friday mornings are our BEST opportunities as retail shifts their position and the MM's show their hand.
© Forex Factory