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josi Sep 18, 2019 1:41am | Post# 41

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{quote} H1 was not it at that time.
It may not have been but look at the chart.
Ehlers' optimal tracking filter never said sell on H1 but remained on buy the whole time... Another lesson to be learned.
These indis all reach back to mladen - this man really has got it in him.
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DrDave Sep 18, 2019 3:52am | Post# 42

{quote} It may not have been but look at the chart. Ehlers' optimal tracking filter never said sell on H1 but remained on buy the whole time... Another lesson to be learned. These indis all reach back to mladen - this man really has got it in him. {image}
Let me repeat, you are looking at the wrong timeframe! H1 cannot complete a swing until every smaller timeframe completes. And as I already posted, you always must have an action plan for when the behavior is not "normal". If you were looking at H1 (and higher) timeframe for more selling, then as I repeat again, you were on the wrong timeframe. If you were on the right timeframe, you would have seen the failure (price going too far up to be a rally) before, and taken appropriate action.

H1 WAS appropriate for EVALUATING a CONTINUATION sell; it failed. It does not matter to me what your indicators showed on H1; I simply looked at what ALL of the timeframes were saying. Looking for selling opportunities BELOW H1 was appropriate; it was not H1's turn yet to begin selling, but only to begin LOOKING and EVALUATING.

josi Sep 18, 2019 3:59am | Post# 43

{quote} H1 WAS appropriate for EVALUATING a CONTINUATION sell; it failed.
H1 for the last two days - and taking Ehlerts' tracking filter "at face value" - was appropriate to take buy trades, despite our weekend analysis, that's my point.

I saw how it failed on M15 and lower - and see how it is turning down right now.
Once it gets through resistance on H4 it will move down.

goodways100 Sep 20, 2019 2:46am | Post# 44

{quote} H1 for the last two days - and taking Ehlerts' tracking filter "at face value" - was appropriate to take buy trades, despite our weekend analysis, that's my point. I saw how it failed on M15 and lower - and see how it is turning down right now. Once it gets through resistance on H4 it will move down.
I think what the guru said "trade the charts and what you see" is better than any forecasting or predicting. As far as gbp is concerned these days 1D is IMT. At least this is my take.
Regards.

josi Sep 20, 2019 3:16am | Post# 45

{quote} I think what the guru said "trade the charts and what you see" is better than any forecasting or predicting. As far as gbp is concerned these days 1D is IMT. At least this is my take. Regards.
The quote sounds clever but is not thought through:
What you see has already happened and therefore is in the past.
But trading (at least whether you make or lose money) is about what happens next, i. e, the future:
Logically you always trade your expectations: either what you see will continue (trend) or reverse (TR) or enter an equilibrium (range).
Anybody who tells you differently has not yet thought about it.

josi Oct 3, 2019 8:49am | Post# 46

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why would anyone sell GBPUSD at this stage except as a practical joke?
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josi Oct 3, 2019 10:20am | Post# 47

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Eventually it has to run into resistance, of course...
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goodways100 Oct 4, 2019 11:27am | Post# 48

why would anyone sell GBPUSD at this stage except as a practical joke? {image}
You should realize monthly trend Ma 50 that is long term trend is down. Regards.

DrDave Oct 4, 2019 11:54am | Post# 49

{quote} You should realize monthly trend Ma 50 that is long term trend is down. Regards.
That is not reliable.
MN is OVERDUE to go up, and if you check W1 price action, it was going up for about 6 weeks, and the last 2 weeks back down. Until something occurs that says otherwise, we assume the W1 down move is a pullback. D1 is making a rally to this pullback, so the expectation is that there will be a down continuation to follow.

The MN past performance shows it often makes extended trends, so it is possible that it will continue down another cycle. We can only follow along as the swings unfold to determine what direction to trade.

goodways100 Oct 4, 2019 11:57am | Post# 50

{quote} That is not reliable. MN is OVERDUE to go up, and if you check W1 price action, it was going up for about 6 weeks, and the last 2 weeks back down. Until something occurs that says otherwise, we assume the W1 down move is a pullback. D1 is making a rally to this pullback, so the expectation is that there will be a down continuation to follow. The MN past performance shows it often makes extended trends, so it is possible that it will continue down another cycle. We can only follow along as the swings unfold to determine what direction to...
O.k what is the control then. 1d or 1w. I presume that should be 1w. Regards

josi Oct 5, 2019 3:13am | Post# 51

{quote} O.k what is the control then. 1d or 1w. I presume that should be 1w. Regards
a) if you look at the second chart I posted the monthly direction is part of the indicator window - so I'm well aware of the monthly trend.
b) which TF you use as reference depends - at least for me - on which TF you trade. At the moment my reference point is about x8.
So, if I trade M15 I'd look at H4 (but H1 as well).

DrDave Oct 6, 2019 1:10pm | Post# 52

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Thoughts for the coming week

GBPJPY
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term cycling down and up.
Control: W1
Action: H1 and below.

MN overdue to go up, so every rally must be treated as an attempt to move the MN up. However, always be prepared for the attempt to fail and the down trend continue in full force.
Expect cycling of timeframes below H4 as they try to move price up, then cycle down. This type of cycling over a wide range of timeframes often results in tight stops being hit.
Every up move should be considered as a rally to take price to a better level for more selling to complete the W1 down swing.

Looking for this H1 chart rally to end soon. M1 is making an attempt at starting this.
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DrDave Oct 7, 2019 4:06am | Post# 53

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TLooking for this H1 chart rally to end soon. M1 is making an attempt at starting this. {image}
Rally ended at open of Sunday's market LOL

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DrDave Oct 7, 2019 6:19am | Post# 54

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Bungee Cord Drop


When price appears to have fallen off a cliff, it is probably attached to a bungee cord.

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josi Oct 7, 2019 6:53am | Post# 55

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Bungee Cord Drop When price appears to have fallen off a cliff, it is probably attached to a bungee cord. {image}
except:
you could have focused on
GBPNZD instead of GBPJPY
and made some money in its upward move
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josi Oct 7, 2019 10:31am | Post# 56

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buy GBPUSD?
looks like a really good choice...
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DrDave Oct 11, 2019 4:58am | Post# 57

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Gotta love those British money takers market makers slicing through the range and taking out retailers on both sides of it.
Like taking candy from a baby...

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dcdax Oct 11, 2019 8:00am | Post# 58

thats happen since 3-4days and not only in GBP. I was in luck and placed small order without SL otherwise my candy is gone .......

DrDave Oct 26, 2019 12:29pm | Post# 59

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{quote} That is not reliable. MN is OVERDUE to go up, and if you check W1 price action, it was going up for about 6 weeks, and the last 2 weeks back down. Until something occurs that says otherwise, we assume the W1 down move is a pullback. D1 is making a rally to this pullback, so the expectation is that there will be a down continuation to follow. The MN past performance shows it often makes extended trends, so it is possible that it will continue down another cycle. We can only follow along as the swings unfold to determine what direction to...
GBPUSD follow up of posting of October 2.

The charts said it all; you just need to listen...
we assume the W1 down move is a pullback

MN is OVERDUE to go up,

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D1 is making a rally to this pullback, so the expectation is that there will be a down continuation to follow.
and
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DrDave Oct 27, 2019 4:53pm | Post# 60

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Some thoughts on GBPUSD

Direction bias: long term, down. However, this down trend has been in effect for many months and is due to reverse.
Short term up with caution.
Control: MN1
Action: H4 and below.

With the recent extreme moves, some cycles are not clearly defined. With the D1 down swing due to end, the subsequent upswing must be monitored to see if it is a mere rally (option B), or if it develops into an extended continuation up (option A).
M5 appears to be starting up to work on cycling to take D1 up.

Whether we see A or B develop on D1, there is expected to be some type of up move soon.

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