MAJOR UPDATE AUGUST 24, 2019
I have made a substantial change to how I am trading to the original ideas below.
The new ideas begin from this post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12459851
New template here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12459912
The original methodology can still be traded in conjunction with the new ideas if you wish to do so, but they are not required.
I am sharing my trades based off my interpretations of the great methodologies shared by RobinHood for those traders that wish to follow how I am trading them. The original thread is here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=917569
The original thread has several traders trading RobinHood's methods in all different manners as per his intention, but it is getting difficult to sort through what may be working for people and what isn't. I am a very big believer in the fact that most traders are unsuccessful not because of their system or methodology, but because they lack the proper trading mindset. Trading psychology is absolutely paramount to succeeding as a trader. So I will be talking a lot about that in future posts.
I endeavour to be as transparent as possible and show my actual trades and track record and the very processes I use and the thoughts behind them. The link to my live Trade Explorer is at the bottom below my signature. There is a lot of reading to do here, guys, and for the love of Christmas, you guys need to actually READ this post and the one below this. DO NOT get upset if you ask me a question that has been explained here and I respond less than kindly - I have no patience for such laziness. If you can't read, retain and apply such simple information your chances of being a profitable trader are close to nothing. Discipline and patience ARE the important take-aways from this journal. You need to get serious about trading and the effort it takes to become a good, disciplined trader. Good trading is boring trading - embrace that idea.
Since there seems to be an awful lot of rookie traders here I am going to ask that all discussion pertains to how I trade this methodology. Please do not introduce any other indicators, templates, or trading systems, theories or EAs. Please do not post trades here that have not been done according to how I lay them out. All this will do is continue to confuse traders and lead them astray which are the very reasons traders are failing to be consistently profitable! Almost every single thread on FF has been watered down, twisted and distorted from it's original intent and are all but useless for teaching anyone to trade profitably - I do not want that here. This journal is about how I trade and how I am becoming a profitable trader. If you have an observation or theory kindly private message me so we can discuss your ideas without polluting the thread.
These are the indicators I use and their settings (link to template at bottom of post):
Hull moving Average with these settings: Period 12, Method 3, Price 0, Colors: green & red
Heiken-Ashi Candles: green and red
smTMMS Oscillator v1.0 (or you can use the tape version): default settings
PSAR: Step 0.05, Maximum 0.5 (used to aid in trailing stops)
Here are my criteria for entering trades:
Condition 1: Trade the 4 hour chart only. This aids in filtering out noise and gives a good amount of trade signals each week.
Condition 2: The Heiken-Ashi candles must be green for long trades or red for short trades. This aids in trading with the trending price direction.
Condition 3: The Hull Moving Average is green and price closed above it for long trades OR the Hull Moving Average is red and price closed below it for short trades. This also aids in trading with the trending price direction.
Signal Candle: For long trades the signal candle is the first or second green candle to close above the HMA and the smTMMS oscillator is green. For short trades the first or second red candle to close below the HMA and the smTMMS oscillator is red. Try to avoid trading large candles.
The signal candle must be closed and all other conditions met before a trade can be placed. NO EXCEPTIONS - PERIOD.
I will say it again for those in the back and hard of hearing. I'll even increase the font size for those lacking good vision:
The signal candle must be CLOSED & ALL OTHER CONDITIONS MET before a trade can be placed.
NO EXCEPTIONS - PERIOD. EVER. Don't even bother asking if it's OK to do otherwise.
Here is how the trade is placed once all four conditions are met:
My risk is always a set dollar amount. I do not use pips or percentages to figure out my position size. I do not want to see pips or percentages being discussed here as they relate to position sizing (see link below in the Important Reading section as to why). I trade to make money not pips you should, too. Pips are useful in communicating the distance of a price movement and nothing more. Stop thinking of your trades in pips and start thinking about them in dollars risked vs dollars earned - pips are irrelevant to those ends. I use market structure/price action to determine my stop locations. I generally set the stop loss just above the signal candle or just above the entry candle. Sometimes, depending on the recent price action I will place the stop further out above/below a recent high/low or above/below the high/low of the candle before the signal candle.
There is some discretion here depending on your risk tolerance and current market conditions. I use this tool here (https://www.riskrewardratio.club/) I highly recommend you invest in it to simplify placing your trades. I do not set a stop based on a set pip distance. I use this tool to fine tune my stop to give me the maximum dollar amount I wish to risk at the location I want the stop to be. I then use the tool to place a take profit of two times my stop loss risk. So if my stop is set for $100 risk (for example) I will have the tool place my take profit at $200. I actually have the default of the tool set for a take profit of 2.15 so that I can help cover my commissions - it's not exact but it helps. Once I am happy with where the tool is showing my order location I place the trade.
Here is how the trade is managed:
At the close of the entry candle and at the close of every four hour candle after I will start to look at trailing the stop to reduce my risk and lock in profit. Again, this is not an exact science and some discretion is used depending on price action, but I will generally endeavour to move the stop to 50% of the initial risk if the price has moved in my favour by a distance equal to my initial risk or close to it. If price is meandering after entry I will leave the stop in place or close the trade and wait for a re-entry signal. These trades are momentum based trades and they typically go in the desired direction quickly. I will continue to trail the stop one or two candles back of the current candle (and in consultation with the PSAR) until the take profit is hit or the trailing stop is hit. I do not move the take profit location and I NEVER MOVE THE STOP WIDER THAN MY INITIAL RISK - EVER. Trade with discipline, confidence, and patience.
Link to my videos:
Here are the instruments I currently trade & why:
AUDUSD, AUDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, USDJPY, and USOUSD
I chose these instruments to help cut down on over trading and information overload. These instruments provide enough quality trading signals each week to make money. They were chosen based on recent price action that shows the propensity for price to reach a 2R take profit after a signal is generated. This list will likely change as markets change.
Miscellaneous Information & Thoughts:
I typically do not concern myself with anything other than what the indicators are telling me about what price is currently doing - trade what you see not what you think. The smTMMS oscillator is made up of a 14 period RSI and two stochastics - one set to 8,3,3 and and one set to 14,3,3. When the oscillator is green that means that all three indicators are over the 50 line and that the long direction is likely to continue in the short term. If the oscillator is red it means that all three indicators are below the 50 line and that the short direction is likely to continue in the short term.
The TMMS oscillator is simply showing momentum and allowing us to jump on board that momentum. Does it work all the time? Not a chance, but it gives us a good reason to get into a trade and combined with the Heiken-Ashi candles telling us that average price is rising or falling as well as trading in the direction of the trend as indicated by the moving averages we are putting a goodly amount of confluence behind the position.
I generally don't pay attention to the news or support and resistance as those things fail as often as they succeed. If they cause a trade to fail then I am out 1R but if they succeed then I am up 2R. That being said, I will look left to try and avoid a choppy market when I can since I tend to use tight stops. I also don't want to enter on overly large candles i.e. candles that stick out far beyond recent price action. I also don't look at any other time frame other than the four hour. The four hour chart shows all the price action for the daily charts over the course of a few weeks (depending on your chart zoom) and is all you need. I am catching intraday or at the very most 2-3 day swings. The daily charts show the price action for the weeklies - that is too large of a time frame for me.
Over analyzing the market, speculating and conjecturing on what you think price is going to do at some Fib, pivot or any other such level is a pointless endeavour and traders are, at best, right about their thoughts 50% of the time - the market doesn't care nor react to what you think. You are not that important - lose the ego. Trading does not need to be complicated at all. We simply need a logical reason to get in a trade based on what price is currently showing us, manage the trade in a disciplined fashion and use sound money management and position size techniques. We need to keep losses small and winners bigger than losses. Stop complicating your trading!
So that's it in a nutshell - clear as mud I am sure See the images below for what a trade setup looks like. Feel free to ask questions if you don't understand something. Send me a private message if you are unsure if you should post something. Don't forget that you are responsible for your trades, the amount you risk and how you mange the trades you place. I cannot accept any responsibility for your trading losses or wins - you are the one that ultimately decides to place your trades. I am a full time trader and this is a live account I am trading.
Important reading. Please do yourself a favour, read and refer to them - often:
I post a lot of Nial Fuller's writing on psychology and mindset because it is concise, educating, makes sense when compared to myself and what I see other traders doing and most importantly when applied his advice actually works. I credit his writings for the turn around in my trading. I regularly revisit these articles as weekend reading to keep this information fresh in my mind. GUYS, THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL ULTIMATELY FIND SUCCESS. SUCCESS DOES NOT COME FROM INDICATORS, A SYSTEM OR A MAGIC EA. I cannot stress this enough. Profitable trading is about discipline and patience and consistently applying them - trade after trade, week after week, month after month.
Why I trade a set dollar risk and not pips or percentages and why you should, too: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...ps-risk-reward
The importance of risk management: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...rading-account
Do you even deserve to be a trader: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...cessful-trader
Control yourself - it's the only thing you can: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...control-market
Stop taking so many trades: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...uantity-trades
Protect your account balance: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...ccount-balance
Develop a winning mindset: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...raders-mindset
Stop thinking about the money: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...-money-trading
Trading is a marathon not a sprint: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...n-not-a-sprint
Boring trading is good: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...-forex-trading
Trading Made Simpler.zip
I wanted to share my trading story and ongoing trading evolution here in the hopes that it can help some one that may be struggling to be profitable. I have been a contract roof truss and engineered wood products designer for 20 years and as of a year or so ago I couldn't seem to find any work from Canada or the US. So I was in a bit of a dilemma. I live in Mexico, so there is no hope of me finding work here and I can't seem to land any new remote contract work so I decided that I really needed to figure out how to trade for a living or it's back to Canada to sort something out.
I have been trading forex for 5 years or so and haven't even had so much as a profitable week in those five yeas and for the record I have always traded a live account - my money has always been on the line during my trading journey and still is. I spent loads of time on scalping strategies, five minute charts, 15 minute charts, tinkered on the hour hour charts and found no success. I tried trend following strategies, candle stick patterns, supply and demand, Bolinger Bands, grid systems, every indicator in the books, you name it. I've paid for two training courses. I have paid a fair amount of money to have 20 or so strategies coded so I could back test them with every parameter and money management idea you can think of before I threw a lot of money at trading them. I have spent hundreds of hours and countless weekends staring at charts and back testing and I kept losing money.
So in March of this year I decided it's time to sort this out and get serious if I am to be able to make a living trading and stay in Mexico. I started reading some of Nial Fuller's articles (go read some!) on what it takes to be a profitable trader and the information on trading psychology really started to ring true. I was the reason for my losses. I was making every single one of the typical mistakes losing traders make i.e. over trading, fear of missing out, revenge trading, lack of patience, position sizes too large, move stops wider during a trade, cutting wins off way too short, system hopping after a string of losses, counter trend trading, trying to control the market, letting losers be bigger than winners and a whole lot more. Once I recognized those behaviours were the cause of my losses I decided to work on stopping them. I had to forget all the trading information I currently thought I knew - it wasn't working. I needed to humble myself and stop thinking I am smarter than the market or smarter than the professional traders that plead for people to adopt a sound trading mindset.
Some of them were easy to conquer and others I am still working on, but let me tell you, when I started to adopt sound trading psychology my trading literally turned 180 degrees. I was trading price action signals at support and resistance in the direction of the trend on the four hour charts. I was having some good success and finally profitable for the fist time EVER. I even had a string of 9 losses in a row and I didn't panic, I didn't start looking for a new system, I didn't fall back into the behaviours of the past, but what I did do was to continue to have patience and execute my trades according to my plan making sure my RR was 1:2. I quickly and easily recovered those 9 losses and went on to further profits. I have had 5 losses in a row with RH's methods and I let it roll off my back now because I know bigger wins are right around the corner.
I have come to learn that it isn't the system that will make you money it's how you trade the system that will make you money. I mean just look at any other thread on FF, there are guys killing it with strategies and others can't make a go of it at all because they can't follow the rules, they have no patience, no discipline, they are afraid of losing money or of missing out. I believe it comes down to the trader's mindset - period. Too many of us are trading absolutely wrapped up in fear and greed which are the two emotions that are responsible for most of the trading mistakes we make and cause us to lose money. Add to that, information overload, opinions from traders with no verifiable track record or who only trade demo accounts, and just blatant confusion about trading in general and it's no wonder there are so few profitable traders. Work on eliminating those emotions from your trading and learn to develop patience in your trading and trust in your system. Wait for the precise trading signals. Don't enter early, don't enter late, don't move your stops wider when in a trade - that's greed talking. If you miss a trade who cares?? Another one will be along shortly. Stop trading time frames lower than the 4 hour - its just noise. Patience. Patience. Patience. Did it mention patience? You also don't need to be following 28 pairs. Again, that is greed talking. There are plenty of signals on the majors. Look at the majors and trade the ones with the best looking current price action and avoid those ones with chop going on.
Here are my equity results since March of this year (that's a strong up trend for those of you in the know LOL) when I decided to finally get serious about trading and stop listening to all the advice that was clearly failing and replace it with time tested advice that works (that everyone seems to love to ignore!) and go full time as a professional trader. I began trading RH's methodologies in July because they are more objective and easier to apply consistently than the method I was trading prior. Don't forget that I am still learning to undo 5 years of horrible trading habits and mindset and it isn't easy all the time - human nature is a bitch sometimes and I have a ways to go yet to be sure. There were a few "experimental" moments in that graph as I slipped back a few times into old habits, but as soon as I caught myself and gave my head a shake recovery happened quickly. I endeavour to smooth that baby out as time goes on and I begin to master good trading psychology and place trust in the methods. I hope this story can help shake some of you guys out of your losing habits and turn unprofitable trading into profitable trading. Guys, it's not the system that will make you money - it's you. You flat out must master yourself if you ever hope to be profitable.
Well said Spoof! As I read through your article about your trading journey, I felt like I was reading mine, an identical journey. I have recently subscribed to RH's thread to trade his method and win/loss ratio is 50/50 and I end up losing money. Only until this week that I started to look into position sizing and money management that you and RH was talking about last week and it rings the bell! How to have a 50% win rate but still making money!
Glad I found you. Subscribed!
Great one @Spoof.
Always interested in your post on the Robinhood thread.
hoping to learn more here
Hi Spoof, I didn't know about the group.
I'm going to read this too, however I decided to follow you and Robinhood, hoping to be as good as you.
Hi and thanks 1000 !!!
subsribed Spoof, reading with interest, I like your thinking process as it is near mine. I will learn a lot and am looking forward to it. I have become profitable since following you.
Welcome traders. I hope this journal will provide you all some value going forward. I have plans to really step things up a notch compared to what is normally done on these threads. I am seeing the same things over and over that are keeping traders in the red and I want to address those things to hopefully turn people's trading around.
Your charts look very clean. Would you be kind enough to upload your template?
I've looked at the smTMMS oscillator v1 but it includes a few extra lines that your charts doen't show.
I have found that using the TMMS ocilator to be very useful, not getting in too early has already saved me from potential losses, early entry has been a real problem for me. Now if the ocilator is not showing the correct signal I just wait.
Hi Spoof, great journal I will now be checking this and TMS(r).
Yeah I am in.
you can also go to the paperclip icon at the top of the page and get it from there, any problems just ley me know.
Ok, I just placed a short trade on oil. This will be my second attempt on it this week. The first trade was a long ended in a 0.72R loss as this current downward move took out the trailing stop. Oil has moved about half it's weekly range so I may be able to squeak out some profit of the momentum continues downwards. Last week's trend was down so we will see if that continues.
As an aside, I am working on replacing the still images in the first post with a video or two explaining the methodology and how I trade. I think a video is going to be far better at explaining things than words and images. I will also attempt to show videos of me placing some of my trades live.
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