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josi Aug 13, 2019 2:11am | Post# 201

Sometimes when trading on low timeframe charts, it is possible for screw-ups to result in winners. I had "One Click Trading" on and somehow managed to click SELL instead of BUY without realizing it. When I went back to put in a TP, I noticed the problem. OOPS! No problem. The H1 would be making a pullback--eventually--and as long as it did not get TOO far up before then, price had high probability of returning to my entry area. Intrinsic Market Timing... {image}
You know what you do + lucky = big time trading future

DrDave Aug 13, 2019 3:47am | Post# 202

{quote} You know what you do + lucky = big time trading future
Oh, you mean like clicking SELL when it was supposed to be BUY??

josi Aug 13, 2019 4:19am | Post# 203

well, genius moves in mysterious ways when the charts start talking

Tiivaa Aug 13, 2019 12:23pm | Post# 204

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Sometimes when trading on low timeframe charts, it is possible for screw-ups to result in winners. I had "One Click Trading" on and somehow managed to click SELL instead of BUY without realizing it. When I went back to put in a TP, I noticed the problem. OOPS! No problem. The H1 would be making a pullback--eventually--and as long as it did not get TOO far up before then, price had high probability of returning to my entry area. Intrinsic Market Timing... {image}
Hello DrDave,
I really appreciate your posts here and I like them. thank you
about your above post, please check the below picture. as I can see in your chart you entered between hours 14 and 15 and in M15 chart must be during one of those red color candles. am I right ? I didnt understand the reason why you entered on that time . candles are red, below HMA and also stoch 8 is in down trending. will you please explain about it?
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Also will you please send more charts about your trades with explains whenever you have time?

thank you in advanced

Tiivaa Aug 13, 2019 12:32pm | Post# 205

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Sometimes when trading on low timeframe charts, it is possible for screw-ups to result in winners. I had "One Click Trading" on and somehow managed to click SELL instead of BUY without realizing it. When I went back to put in a TP, I noticed the problem. OOPS! No problem. The H1 would be making a pullback--eventually--and as long as it did not get TOO far up before then, price had high probability of returning to my entry area. Intrinsic Market Timing... {image}
This is the trade I tried to catch today, after 9 pips in + moved to brake even. please comment
thank you
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DrDave Aug 13, 2019 1:02pm | Post# 206

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{quote} Hello DrDave, I really appreciate your posts here and I like them. thank you about your above post, please check the below picture. as I can see in your chart you entered between hours 14 and 15 and in M15 chart must be during one of those red color candles. am I right ? I didnt understand the reason why you entered on that time . candles are red, below HMA and also stoch 8 is in down trending. will you please explain about it? {image} Also will you please send more charts about your trades with explains whenever you have time? thank you...
Very nice to see that you have an eagle's eye for details, Yiivaa!

The green arrow is the bar that I made the entry.

I do not rigidly follow the "system" here. I look at many timeframes before I make a decision to enter. In this case, the m15 is indeed not in a good position to buy. However... BECAUSE I look at lower timeframes, plus I include other analyses, I had other information. The 1 minute chart had made 2 rallies, which is already more than enough for "time is up" for the down move, which means the next up move is highly likely to be a reversal, not just a rally. So I watched for evidence to support this, and saw 4 closed up bars with the last 2 growing in size. For me, combining what I already saw on H1, m30, m15, m5, it was enough to enter. Also, even if the m1 down move would extend and make another 1 or 2 rallies, I expected that it would fall at most another 10 pips. Even if it went 20 or 30 pips against me, no problem, because it was past time for it to go up. And each additional rally raises the probability that the next one is the reversal.

I should have made clear that H1 already had 1 closed up bar before I entered. That was a very big factor in my bias for buying.
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DrDave Aug 13, 2019 1:08pm | Post# 207

{quote} This is the trade I tried to catch today, after 9 pips in + moved to brake even. please comment thank you {image}
You should give some information about why you decided to enter there.

Tiivaa Aug 13, 2019 3:08pm | Post# 208

{quote} You should give some information about why you decided to enter there.
Thank you for explaining your trade. really helps me for the future.
about mine... to be honest when I watch it now it was not a good one, I checked first the H4 and H1 and they were in a down trend so I was looking for a sell. but about M15 chart, I was too early whenever I saw a red candle that was coming below the HMA I triggered and not even wait for the candle to close. and also I didnt see that yellow line (stoch 32) is going up. I guess I was lucky that closed in 0.

thank you

DrDave Aug 13, 2019 3:45pm | Post# 209

{quote} Thank you for explaining your trade. really helps me for the future. about mine... to be honest when I watch it now it was not a good one, I checked first the H4 and H1 and they were in a down trend so I was looking for a sell. but about M15 chart, I was too early whenever I saw a red candle that was coming below the HMA I triggered and not even wait for the candle to close. and also I didnt see that yellow line (stoch 32) is going up. I guess I was lucky that closed in 0. thank you
See? Now that you went back at it yourself, you could find some things that you can improve next time without anyone else showing it to you.

If you do not have a checklist to go through on each setup, I suggest that you make one. And when you find you did something that is not on the list, decide if that is something that you want to add to the list to always use, or if it is something that you want to add to "My list of things that I am learning to stop doing". Also, if you find that you did not do something that is on the list, such as not wait for the candle to close, highlight it so it is clear the next time you look at the checklist that it is something that you overlooked before.

The specific trade that you looked at most likely would have ended with negative pips anyway, unless you had a very small profit target. Sometimes with a very good setup, price simply does not go far in your direction before turning around. That is one reason you have a stop loss.

Tiivaa Aug 14, 2019 3:11am | Post# 210

{quote} That is one reason you have a stop loss.
thanks you
No I dont have a checklist yet, Ill make one for sure.
about SL, it is always a question for me in your 10pip strategy. where it should be ? as I see you accept it even more than 30pips and its a big problem where we have to accept that price wont came back
thank you again

DrDave Aug 14, 2019 4:17am | Post# 211

it is always a question for me in your 10pip strategy. where it should be ? as I see you accept it even more than 30pips and its a big problem where we have to accept that price wont came back thank you again
Everyone must decide on a stop loss for himself, because it is closely linked to how much money you are prepared psychologically/emotionally to lose without "freaking out". Maybe for you it is $2, or maybe it is $25--only you can know. And you might not know right now what the value is for you. You might THINK you know, but the reality is, when price starts going against you, it will reach a point that you start to get anxious and become afraid that you made a mistake and will end up with a loss. If this point where price is against you is rather far from where you set your SL, then cearly, you are not OK with losing the amount that you set your SL to, and you need to use a smaller SL amount.

This demo account that I put in the Trade Explorer was supposed to be for $1000 but it is $10,000. So I trade it as if it has only $1000 in it. I am prepared to lose 1% of that $1000, which is $10. If I trade a single micro lot 0f 0.01 lot, that is 10 cents per pip. That means I can set an emergency SL at 100 pips. Even if I open 2 contracts of 0.01 lots (or a single contract of 0.02 lots), I can set the SL at 50 pips to reach my loss limit of $10. And you can further adjust your trades and use 0.02 lots and set TP at a mere 5 pips, still having SL way out at 50 pips, and harvest the same amount of money as if your trade were 0.01 lots with 10 pip TP. What is the probability of the trade going only 5 pips and hitting your TP versus going 50 pips against you and hitting your SL?

Anyway, look at the trades in the Trade Explorer. How much does the price go against me in those trades. How many even went 10 pips against me? If your system has high accuracy of getting you into trades with little drawdown, and the system is only going for a small amount of pips, why worry about placing a SL close by?

This system is the inverse of what most systems do. Most systems have a low win rate, use small SL, and rely on winning a few trades with a very large number of pips, and typically, trade on H4 or Daily charts. The 10 pips per day system has a very high win rate, useses a very large SL, and relies on rarely hitting the SL, and can be traded on any time frame.

Notice I never once mentioned Reward:Risk in the above discussion. I find that to be little more than a "feel good" psychological crutch needed for systems that have low win rates, so require a very high Reward:Risk value to see profit.

Try any system in a demo account for 30 days or 20 trades, whichever comes first, and see if you can remain in your emotional "comfort zone" most of the time. If you cannot, then that system is not for you. If you can, then continue with another 30 days demo and see if you still feel the same. If yes, then think about trading with real money. If the very thought of putting [insert here amount of money you can give away] makes you feel nervous, either you are not ready for live trading, or you are not prepared to lose that entire amount. The only money you should put into a trading account is money that you do not need and in an amount that when it is all lost, you can remain calm. It is an investment in your trading education, nothing more.

DrDave Aug 14, 2019 10:41am | Post# 212

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You Can Do IT!

10 pips a day!
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Just say NO to One Click Trading!

OK, one time to click wrong order type goes to OOPS! But the second time, find a different order method.

AUDUSD I placed two orders of 0.01 lots, TP 5 pips. Price made a nic rally of about 8 pips, so a nice opportunity to make another sell to ride back down. However, BUY was clicked, so needed to ride with the drawdown until the next chart made its attempt to reverse the downtrend. (Went to the supermarket while it played out.)

I was actually trading this on m1 with reference to m5. I posted m5 becasue it is easier to see.

Tiivaa Aug 14, 2019 2:42pm | Post# 213

{quote} Everyone must decide on a stop loss for himself, ......... It is an investment in your trading education, nothing more.
thanks again for your time to share your experiences,
I am trying on a small live acc to face the real feelings at list for some. your post really good to show me that if I want to take 10 pips its better to have 50 pips SL.
by saying that its possible to use this system on any time frame do you mean that even on H4, is the TP and SL remains 10 pip and almost 50 ? or you will make them larger regarding to the time frame ?

thank you

DrDave Aug 14, 2019 3:01pm | Post# 214

{quote} thanks again for your time to share your experiences, I am trying on a small live acc to face the real feelings at list for some. your post really good to show me that if I want to take 10 pips its better to have 50 pips SL. by saying that its possible to use this system on any time frame do you mean that even on H4, is the TP and SL remains 10 pip and almost 50 ? or you will make them larger regarding to the time frame ? thank you
First, the SL cannot be any larger than whatever works out to the amount that you decided you are comfortable losing in 1 trade. For this exercise, it is $10, or 100 pips with 0.01 lot. So if using 0.02 lots, SL 50. 0.04 lots, SL 25.

Because this is intended to be 10 pips a day, it does not matter the timeframe, I still try to take 10 pips of profit. So on m1 and m5, I often use 0.02 lots and target a 5 pip move. On H4, several minutes before the candle closes, check how far away 100 pips is for the stop loss. If it looks too close, skip that timeframe. If it looks OK, I just set it for 100 pips, use 0.01 lot, and target 10 pips. Don't be concerned that the move runs away for 80, 100, 120 pips and you got only 10. You have a plan. Your plan is for 10 pips a day. If you can get that on your very first trade of the day, you can walk away and be free from trading the rest of the day. If you have time at the computer and you see that prices in several pairs are trending and making good moves, those are days that you can take another trade or two and get ahead of your daily goal.

After you get comfortable with trading this way, you will learn to see how the price is moving and can make a good decision about letting an H4 trade go for more than 10 pips.

Tiivaa Aug 15, 2019 2:59am | Post# 215

{quote} First, the SL cannot be any larger than whatever works out to the amount that you decided you are comfortable losing in 1 trade. For this exercise, it is $10, or 100 pips with 0.01 lot. So if using 0.02 lots, SL 50. 0.04 lots, SL 25. Because this is intended to be 10 pips a day, it does not matter the timeframe, I still try to take 10 pips of profit. So on m1 and m5, I often use 0.02 lots and target a 5 pip move. On H4, several minutes before the candle closes, check how far away 100 pips is for the stop loss. If it looks too close, skip...
thank you,
As a newbie I am sure that I can not check more than 2 or 3 pairs at the beginning, in your experience which pairs do you recommend to start with ?

DrDave Aug 15, 2019 3:21am | Post# 216

{quote} thank you, As a newbie I am sure that I can not check more than 2 or 3 pairs at the beginning, in your experience which pairs do you recommend to start with ?
Any major pairs that have the corresponding markets open during your time that you can watch them. Look at them for several days in real time and see how the price is moving. You won't necessarily consciously see anything, but your brain is taking it in. Also on the weekend, scroll back through some charts and mark a leg on a chart like D1 or H1, then switch to the next lower timeframe and examine how the price action unfolded to create that leg on the larger chart.

DrDave Aug 15, 2019 5:08am | Post# 217

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I am looking at GBPJPY
From what I see, the current down move just starting is a pullback. If it gets as low as 127.60, I will be concerned that it has gone too far and may turn into a reversal. Otherwise, I am looking to buy the end of the pullback. How about you??

EDIT
I adjusted the down level to 127.85. So far, price hit there and looks like going back up (Sometimes I amaze even myself. LOL)
M1 has high probability of ending its down moves now, so we will see if this can cycle back up to M15.

EDIT2
KA-CHING!

10 pips a day. U Can Do IT!
I see that i reached my goal for this week. I can have a trading free Friday!

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DrDave Aug 16, 2019 10:50am | Post# 218

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C'mon folks! U Can Do IT!
It's just 10 pips a day!

EURUSD was OVERDUE to end going down. The START of any new uptrend is on M1. After M1 looked committed and M5 was clearly joining, I used the M1 to get in on the continuation of the M5 going up.
I used two lots so that I needed to have ONLY a 5 pip increase to harvest the 10 pips. Simple,no?

Getting in on a high momentum move means short time in the trade--less than 10 minutes.
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josi Aug 17, 2019 10:09am | Post# 219

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U Can Do IT! {image}
U Did IT
What you described for the EURUSD yesterday happened - not suprisingly - also on EURNZD and would have offered a maybe even easier (for people like me - if they paid any attention at all) trade. Under the "new rules" one might have waited for HMA24 to turn colour to blue before entering.
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josi Aug 17, 2019 11:42am | Post# 220

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EURUSD was OVERDUE {image}
1. possible entries on M5.
2. H1: still a downward trend, though, for me
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