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acetrader Jul 6, 2019 8:04am | Post# 41

{quote} I agree 100%. I find the interaction is more to break boredom, not financially beneficial.
Agree 100%.

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 8:24am | Post# 42

Client sentiment is available on various sites. One can compare it across multiple brokers to confirm. IG Client sentiment for example July 4: GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 78.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.74 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29202; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 18.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 25.6%...
Thanks very much for the info Mrgreen much appreciated

clemmo17 Jul 6, 2019 12:12pm | Post# 43

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The herd's positioning is usually a decent confirming (reverse) indicator although the few times when they are right can certainly sow doubt in the mind of the trader using an un-trusted system.

A theory that needs testing:
Even better than trading against the gen pop is trading against the 'sell-side' industry experts as they seem to be worse than random. I hesitate to say intentionally misleading, but I don't have any other hypothesis.

Here is an early examination of FXStreet's 'selected leading experts'. It was more interesting when they broke this poll down per expert, but the average opinions are still possibly revelatory. Do these people get paid and what do they get paid for, as it certainly isn't anticipating the future direction of FX prices. I will eventually get around to testing the bank's public forecasts, as they might be an even better reverse indicator.

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

mrgreen Jul 6, 2019 12:57pm | Post# 44

Mrgreen, Would you suggest some other sources for this info other than this site? Thank you for any shared.
a google search for: forex client sentiment
result's in several sites, with some strategies on usage of sentiment.

DailyFX has the IG Client sentiment, sign up to view a more complete listing than the default list that is avail on the non-signup site. Oanda has a 'demo acct' listing, if you are a client of theirs you can login to view the live accounts sentiment.

choco Jul 6, 2019 2:04pm | Post# 45

This site aggregates sentiment from lots of different sources, really useful for this method of trading: https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 4:39pm | Post# 46

The herd's positioning is usually a decent confirming indicator although the few times when they are right can certainly sow doubt in the mind of the trader using an un-trusted system. A theory that needs testing: Even better than trading against the gen pop is trading against the 'sell-side' industry experts as they seem to be worse than random. I hesitate to say intentionally misleading, but I don't have any other hypothesis. Here is an early examination of FXStreet's 'selected leading experts'. It was more interesting when they broke this poll...
Thanks very much for this.
Years ago, I used to watch bank forecasts for GBPUSD published on this site. They were the ultimate contraindicated (worse than the herd) and I would constantly go on and on about the dubious nature of their publications.

I don't see so many publications of that sort published here anymore...

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 4:42pm | Post# 47

GBPUSD bullish sentiment currently at 68%.

hellsbells Jul 6, 2019 5:28pm | Post# 48

The herd's positioning is usually a decent confirming indicator although the few times when they are right can certainly sow doubt in the mind of the trader using an un-trusted system. A theory that needs testing: Even better than trading against the gen pop is trading against the 'sell-side' industry experts as they seem to be worse than random. I hesitate to say intentionally misleading, but I don't have any other hypothesis. Here is an early examination of FXStreet's 'selected leading experts'. It was more interesting when they broke this poll...
I only look at FXstreet now when I'm really, really bored, and I stay there for about 1min. I try to get enthused about their fence sitting arguments pros and cons of bulls and bears but I lose interest fast..

OutThere Jul 6, 2019 6:32pm | Post# 49

Currently USDCHF's sentiment is near zero (51 short, 49 long)and at current price it is near a very good S/R level.
The OP says as soon as it passes 0 go against the herd, in this case I guess we are buying then.

What would you do? Buy or sell?

What other indicator do u use that tells you to buy this?

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 6:35pm | Post# 50

Currently USDCHF's sentiment is near zero (51 short, 49 long)and at current price it is near a very good S/R level. The OP says as soon as it passes 0 go against the herd, in this case I guess we are buying then. What would you do? Buy or sell? What other indicator do u use that tells you to buy this?
Personally, I only watch GBPUSD as it's the only pair I trade.

OutThere Jul 6, 2019 6:39pm | Post# 51

{quote} Personally, I only watch GBPUSD as it's the only pair I trade.
GBPUSD hasn't been 50/50 since May 7. If you go by this method, I guess you are a long term trader.

mixedbags Jul 6, 2019 6:48pm | Post# 52

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This give a better idea

OutThere Jul 6, 2019 6:55pm | Post# 53

Inserted Video

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 6:57pm | Post# 54

{quote} GBPUSD hasn't been 50/50 since May 7. If you go by this method, I guess you are a long term trader.
That I am, but I don't use this method on my account, this is an experiment based on my observations over the years.

I do like to see 65+% long when I am short though

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 6:59pm | Post# 55

{image} This give a better idea
Awesome, thank you

FinInsTrader Jul 6, 2019 8:34pm | Post# 56

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=930086

..sama concept.extract data from myfxbook...

wiserltz Jul 6, 2019 8:50pm | Post# 57

{image} This give a better idea
base on this chart only, market is entering money contest mode, buyers average down, risk increasing, range down. or suddenly down, is high possibility.

mixedbags Jul 6, 2019 8:58pm | Post# 58

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{quote} base on this chart only, market is entering money contest mode, buyers average down, risk increasing, range down. or suddenly down, is high possibility.
Some risk taker will sneak in and take some

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That gray dot look familiar to you

wiserltz Jul 6, 2019 10:05pm | Post# 59

{quote} Some risk taker will sneak in and take some {image} That gray dot look familiar to you
quote=Ill-b-back;12369093]{quote} That I am, but I don't use this method on my account, this is an experiment based on my observations over the years. I do like to see 65+% long when I am short though [/quote]
as i understood, 65% means. the public is bullish, more money is waiting, when price drop they tend to average down, so short is a safer choice, if pa supports the drop

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 10:15pm | Post# 60

{quote} quote=Ill-b-back;12369093]{quote} That I am, but I don't use this method on my account, this is an experiment based on my observations over the years. I do like to see 65+% long when I am short though
as i understood, 65% means. the public is bullish, more money is waiting, when price drop they tend to average down, so short is a safer choice, if pa supports the drop[/quote]


I'm thinking we may see some movement back into 1.26xx area before the next leg down.

wiserltz Jul 6, 2019 11:13pm | Post# 61

{quote} as i understood, 65% means. the public is bullish, more money is waiting, when price drop they tend to average down, so short is a safer choice, if pa supports the drop
I'm thinking we may see some movement back into 1.26xx area before the next leg down.[/quote]
hope that. already bought with the herd

renkotop Jul 7, 2019 4:15am | Post# 62

GBPUSD bullish sentiment currently at 68%.
@Ill-b-back: From which source do you get the sentment from?

Ill-b-back Jul 7, 2019 6:40am | Post# 63

{quote} @Ill-b-back: From which source do you get the sentment from?
The "trade" section of this site

acetrader Jul 7, 2019 5:56pm | Post# 64

Ill-b-back, Giving this a run on the G/$, demo of course. E/$ is another candidate, but another handle up may be first then down. Just my view. Time will tell. In @ 2523 on GBP/USD down. Demo.

Ill-b-back Jul 8, 2019 4:20am | Post# 65

Ill-b-back, Giving this a run on the G/$, demo of course. E/$ is another candidate, but another handle up may be first then down. Just my view. Time will tell. In @ 2523 on GBP/USD down. Demo.
Hi Ace.
I have closed out all my shorts from higher up.
I am now waiting to see if we hit 1.26xx area before looking to short again.
Watch the herd indicator at the end of each day for direction.

Lekkim Jul 8, 2019 4:26am | Post# 66

This topic is definitely interesting.
I'm addressing similar in my thread here on FF. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=928287
The low activity in the trades section, however, might not be data-big enough to give a broad overall market overview.

Ill-b-back Jul 8, 2019 5:19am | Post# 67

This topic is definitely interesting. I'm addressing similar in my thread here on FF. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=928287 The low activity in the trades section, however, might not be data-big enough to give a broad overall market overview.
Hi Lekkim, this idea of making money going against the FF herd is based solely on historical observation.

Lekkim Jul 8, 2019 5:30am | Post# 68

{quote} Hi Lekkim, this idea of making money going against the FF herd is based solely on historical observation.
Hi Ill-b-back

Ok. I have been researching from these ideas of going against 'the amateurs' and the herd, as well.
If believing in the idea of counter trading these parties including backed up by your own past historical positive observations, I think it itself could be a good/profitable indicator.

Ill-b-back Jul 8, 2019 11:39pm | Post# 69

GBPUSD FF retail sentiment end of trading day:
Monday 8th July: 65% BULLISH.

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 1:41am | Post# 70

GBPUSD FF retail sentiment end of trading day: Monday 8th July: 65% BULLISH.
and more than 90% of them in Red

Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 1:44am | Post# 71

{quote} and more than 90% of them in Red
Bullish stats:
Winning trades - 70
Losing trades - 1255
Return: -4.7%

Bearish stats:
Winning trades: 193
Losing trades: 109
Return: 1.5%

Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 1:48am | Post# 72

Trade against the herd..

CrocodileRex Jul 9, 2019 1:57am | Post# 73

{quote} Bullish stats: Winning trades - 70 Losing trades - 1255 Return: -4.7% Bearish stats: Winning trades: 193 Losing trades: 109 Return: 1.5%
What is interesting is if you check all the major pairs. Only one pair is having a positive average return with 13.3%:-

 

  1. NZD/USD Position Stats

LongShortAll
Traders
7685161
Lots10.923.734.6
Avg Entry0.68320.66360.6698
Avg Trade Return-1.1%37.3%13.3%
Avg Trade Duration32 weeks10 weeks24 weeks
Winning Trades2788115
Losing Trades28096376

The rest of the pairs all have negative average returns. Meaning most traders are really losing money.


Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 2:28am | Post# 74

GBPUSD FF retail sentiment end of trading day: Monday 8th July: 65% BULLISH.
Cable still dumping...

Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 2:29am | Post# 75

{quote} What is interesting is if you check all the major pairs. Only one pair is having a positive average return with 13.3%:- NZD/USD Position Stats LongShortAll Traders 7685161 Lots10.923.734.6 Avg Entry0.68320.66360.6698 Avg Trade Return-1.1%37.3%13.3% Avg Trade Duration32 weeks10 weeks24 weeks Winning Trades2788115 Losing Trades28096376 The rest of the pairs all have negative average returns. Meaning most traders are really losing money.
Stats don't lie

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 5:00am | Post# 76

{quote} What is interesting is if you check all the major pairs. Only one pair is having a positive average return with 13.3%:- NZD/USD Position Stats LongShortAll Traders 7685161 Lots10.923.734.6 Avg Entry0.68320.66360.6698 Avg Trade Return-1.1%37.3%13.3% Avg Trade Duration32 weeks10 weeks24 weeks Winning Trades2788115 Losing Trades28096376 The rest of the pairs all have negative average returns. Meaning most traders are really losing money.
total lots only 10, too small for a reliable result

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 6:58am | Post# 77

{quote} total lots only 10, too small for a reliable result
7.6m traders and 10lots??

Vorenzd Jul 9, 2019 7:37am | Post# 78

Hello friends!

I think that the reason for this possibly working is not because you are trading against the majority, but rather because you are trading with the trend.

As you might have noticed, most retail traders are taught to trade against the trend, to try to look for reverseals etc... they mostly cut their winnings short and leave their loses late. Then they keep going at the market against the losing trend to recover their trade.

I belive this is the reason why something like this could be feasible, you're just doing opposite of what irrational traders who wait for the market to return to "their direction".

But yeah, as some respected members have already said, it all depends on your analysis.

Regards, Vorenzd.

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 7:58am | Post# 79

Hello friends! I think that the reason for this possibly working is not because you are trading against the majority, but rather because you are trading with the trend. As you might have noticed, most retail traders are taught to trade against the trend, to try to look for reverseals etc... they mostly cut their winnings short and leave their loses late. Then they keep going at the market against the losing trend to recover their trade. I belive this is the reason why something like this could be feasible, you're just doing opposite of what irrational...
what if herd learn to folllow the trend?
i think the trend will dispair

Vorenzd Jul 9, 2019 8:43am | Post# 80

{quote} what if herd learn to folllow the trend? i think the trend will dispair
I would agree with you on that, this is what i think:


The herd usually tends to start following the trend when there is a reversal about to come, i don't know why, but retail traders get stressed too much and somehow manage to do the exact oposite of the market 90% of the time. I think it's just human psychology, most people think similary and get scared of the market at the same time.

Thing is, you can profit by both following the trend and going against it, but the herd always tend to have some ideas about stop loss hunting, about market manipulation etc so they don't trade what they see, but rather what they feel and then they do the exact oposite of what they should. Another big problem is that many people try to find a "glitch" in the markets and profit of a non existing "glitch".

The herd often gets baited into the trend at the very end of it in order to allow someone to open a much larger counter position at a better price, it's easy to bait sheep and it's easy to manipulate emotional people. Smart money doesn't even need to use their capital to manipulate the market, we just toss the bait and the herd follows.

Regards, Vorenzd.


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