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Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 8:23am | Post# 1

Trading against the herd
 
Trade against the FF retail herd and make money.

The rules are incredibly simple:

As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting.

As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.

MrPresident Jul 5, 2019 9:00am | Post# 2

Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
you should work for George Soros or a big hedge fund if you are that good man

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 10:59am | Post# 3

{quote} you should work for George Soros or a big hedge fund if you are that good man
Anyone can do it, the rules are simple

kofix11 Jul 5, 2019 11:05am | Post# 4

Does it mean you are a seller at the moment?
What is your average holding period?
How long have you traded like that?

Thanks!

senjamerah Jul 5, 2019 11:27am | Post# 5

Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
.......absolutely

KeenPips Jul 5, 2019 11:54am | Post# 6

More like throwing the dice? Maybe we can make a little change to the rules: If your analysis goes against the FF majority, go by it.

KP

acetrader Jul 5, 2019 12:01pm | Post# 7

Ill-b-Back, Sharp idea, simple to test, but WAIT FOR IT ..............Got to have an indicator coded & then you guest it.... next an EA.
Just kidding. Let's see what happens. Btw an indicator may be a good idea. Best trades to you.

gian97 Jul 5, 2019 12:39pm | Post# 8

Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
Interesting, I also use a similar approach. If you want we can confront each other.
I wait for the release of high-impact news on the market, and look at the previous price action.
If before the news the market goes up in a strange way, and most of the traders are long (over 50%, but better than 60% onwards) often the opposite movement happens at the release of the news.

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:36pm | Post# 9

Does it mean you are a seller at the moment? What is your average holding period? How long have you traded like that? Thanks!
I don't currently trade this way, but yes I am short Cable. Closed out some at 2516, holding the rest.
Stats now show 67% long on Cable, (up from 63% earlier in the day), so we could have quite a bit more to drop...

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:43pm | Post# 10

More like throwing the dice? Maybe we can make a little change to the rules: If your analysis goes against the FF majority, go by it. KP
Each person can modify as they please.
This is more of an experiment.
Over the years I have noticed, and been profoundly shocked at the trading styles of some as shown by the stats.
Buying high then holding as it drops, but then (and this is the spooky bit), flipping direction and selling low, almost at the point it starts to turn bullish.

I have not noticed this just once or twice, but with monotonous regularity......

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:48pm | Post# 11

Ill-b-Back, Sharp idea, simple to test, but WAIT FOR IT ..............Got to have an indicator coded & then you guest it.... next an EA. Just kidding. Let's see what happens. Btw an indicator may be a good idea. Best trades to you.
The indicator is usually price action.
As soon as it turns bearish off resistance, you can bet the percentage of bulls will go above 50%

As it starts to turn bullish off support, the percentage of bears will go above 50%...


KeenPips Jul 5, 2019 4:53pm | Post# 12

{quote} Each person can modify as they please. This is more of an experiment. Over the years I have noticed, and been profoundly shocked at the trading styles of some as shown by the stats. Buying high then holding as it drops, but then (and this is the spooky bit), flipping direction and selling low, almost at the point it starts to turn bullish. I have not noticed this just once or twice, but with monotonous regularity......
Indeed I share your sentiment about going against the majority. But it is important to note that at times the majority may be right. Better for each trader to trade based on his or her trading style and market analysis.KP

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:56pm | Post# 13

{quote} Indeed I share your sentiment about going against the majority. But it is important to note that at times the majority may be right. Better for each trader to trade based on his or her trading style and market analysis.KP
Yes I agree.
As I mentioned, this is an experiment, one I have been thinking about for a while.
If you look back at the data, they are indeed correct at times, but not often.
Money management also key.

KeenPips Jul 5, 2019 5:03pm | Post# 14

{quote} Yes I agree. As I mentioned, this is an experiment, one I have been thinking about for a while. If you look back at the data, they are indeed correct at times, but not often. Money management also key.
Very true also. A key problem I notice is that many of us on FF are impulsive, and somewhat, imo, lazy traders with a herd mentality. Thus, we are likely to be on the losing side and so your hypothesis may be valid.KP

mikeeating Jul 5, 2019 5:52pm | Post# 15

I don't disagree with your thread, but I also think there is a lack of successful traders that show transparency in real time. I realise that no-one is obliged to do so, but really, is it actually fair we belittle the losers continually when many red member's often never show real time live manual trades?

I think the only person I really see do this is Davit and his thread, however I don't browse as much anymore

Just my 2 cents

Copernicus Jul 5, 2019 6:17pm | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
IMO the vast populace trades randomly without being aware of it (fooled by randomness) and suffer frictional costs with the Law of Large Numbers. (Note: Random in the context of the trade contributing to an overall edge). Reverse a random outcome....you still get a random outcome. A truly bad strategy is as rare as a truly good one with an edge. These 'truly bad ones' are the only forms of strategy that you can reverse and win. Tradable 'real' enduring signals are a pretty rare event in an efficient market.

Example: Price Chart constructed from Random Data
Click to Enlarge

Name: Random.PNG
Size: 497 KB

eyeball Jul 5, 2019 6:34pm | Post# 17

The unstated implication of your argument is that the majority of traders are losers consequently , by doing the opposite (buying when they are selling and vice-versa) the majority of your trades will be winners.The problem with that seemingly logical hypothesis is that the losers are entries that are essentially random and their losing outcomes are a result of random selection rather than anything otherwise and, therefore your opposite position will also be a random entry with the same kind of consequential result (losing),if not sooner than positively later. The opposite of a random entry is not a logical entry, but simply another random entry.

ForexCraft Jul 5, 2019 6:39pm | Post# 18

1 Attachment(s)
Ok, yes I am new here but been trading this way since the middle ages. Yes, I'm that old.

Not only the gbp/usd but any pair - It's not rocket science and the approach as listed by Ill-be-back seems so simple but it works.

As I'll-be-back puts it the dumb money started buying the gbpcad on May 14th and are still buying it. Take a look at the gbpcad daily chart. Its fell since then and still falling.

But as mikeeating puts it no one shows any real transparency in real time. But all it takes is to look at the FF front page and a chart.

Keep things simple in life.

All the best and hope ya all had a great July 4th :-)

Alex
Name:  gbpcad.png
Views: 7996
Size:  18 KB

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 6:44pm | Post# 19

{quote} IMO the vast populace trades randomly without being aware of it (fooled by randomness) and suffer frictional costs with the Law of Large Numbers. (Note: Random in the context of the trade contributing to an overall edge). Reverse a random outcome....you still get a random outcome. A truly bad strategy is as rare as a truly good one with an edge. These 'truly bad ones' are the only forms of strategy that you can reverse and win. Tradable 'real' enduring signals are a pretty rare event in an efficient market. Example: Price Chart constructed...
"Fooled by randomness".
All I know, is the vast majority of the time (based on published live stats from the "trades" section for GBPUSD), when the percentage of longs is above 50%, the pair is bearish.
The opposite for when shorts are above 50%.

This is an experiment only, one I have been considering for quite a while.

When it come to trading and money, opinions and thoughts come a distant 2nd to outcomes.

Hence I will be interested in the outcome....

Marcieny Jul 5, 2019 6:45pm | Post# 20

The unstated implication of your argument is that the majority of traders are losers consequently , by doing the opposite (buying when they are selling and vice-versa) the majority of your trades will be winners.The problem with that seemingly logical hypothesis is that the losers are entries that are essentially random and their losing outcomes are a result of random selection rather than anything otherwise and, therefore your opposite position will also be a random entry with the same kind of consequential result (losing),if not sooner than positively...
I agree with you the only thing right is the market everyone is susceptible to mistakes and hits .... But I believe in studies, techniques and lots of practice, that's all.

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 6:45pm | Post# 21

The unstated implication of your argument is that the majority of traders are losers consequently , by doing the opposite (buying when they are selling and vice-versa) the majority of your trades will be winners.The problem with that seemingly logical hypothesis is that the losers are entries that are essentially random and their losing outcomes are a result of random selection rather than anything otherwise and, therefore your opposite position will also be a random entry with the same kind of consequential result (losing),if not sooner than positively...
See above (my post 18) ^^^

Copernicus Jul 5, 2019 6:48pm | Post# 22

{quote} "Fooled by randomness". All I know, is the vast majority of the time (based on published live stats from the "trades" section for GBPUSD), when the percentage of longs is above 50%, the pair is bearish. The opposite for when shorts are above 50%. This is an experiment only, one I have been considering for quite a while. When it come to trading and money, opinions and thoughts come a distant 2nd to outcomes. Hence I will be interested in the outcome....
No probs with testing hypothesis. We should all do it.

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 6:56pm | Post# 23

I don't disagree with your thread, but I also think there is a lack of successful traders that show transparency in real time. I realise that no-one is obliged to do so, but really, is it actually fair we belittle the losers continually when many red member's often never show real time live manual trades? I think the only person I really see do this is Davit and his thread, however I don't browse as much anymore Just my 2 cents
Yes, I realise it is belittling, but the title is just some fun for me in an adult environment.

It is also born out of frustration when I see the same thing time and time again on the GBPUSD thread.
When PA is bearish, the buyers come out in force with their posts. The opposite when bullish. If the outcomes were usually positive, and backed up with reasons, it would be awesome.

But alas, it's not what I have observed.

Anyway, I will do this either with a demo account or just with paper to observe the outcome....

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 7:20pm | Post# 24

1 Attachment(s)
Stats and chart.

Going from January to today...

Red lines show when majority are bearish (on a daily view).
Blue lines show when majority are bullish (on a daily view)

The coloured are gets very choppy with positions and looks very messy.
You can fill it in with positional lines if you like.

https://www.forexfactory.com/trades....ions-details=1
Click to Enlarge

Name: GBPUSDDaily.png
Size: 43 KB

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 7:33pm | Post# 25

1 Attachment(s)
Now the opposite of the herd....

From January to today.
Click to Enlarge

Name: GBPUSDDaily1.png
Size: 42 KB

acetrader Jul 5, 2019 8:15pm | Post# 26

Ill-b-back, This is interesting for sure. I was trying to sarcastic & funny in my previous post, but not sarcastic at you. Your theory will most likely apply across the board on all pairs & any instrument that can be traded. The masses will be incorrect more times than not hence the 90 - 95% losing traders that we always here about. Here is one trader that will take notice of this next week. You are thinking outside of the box Sir. Btw..NO indicator needed for sure on this idea.

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 8:22pm | Post# 27

Ill-b-back, This is interesting for sure. I was trying to sarcastic & funny in my previous post, but not sarcastic at you. Your theory will most likely apply across the board on all pairs & any instrument that can be traded. The masses will be incorrect more times than not hence the 90 - 95% losing traders that we always here about. Here is one trader that will take notice of this next week. You are thinking outside of the box Sir. Btw..NO indicator needed for sure on this idea.
Hi Acetrader,
yes I realise, hence my response and emoji

All across it.

I will change title of thread (if I can).
While it was just me having fun, it's not very nice.

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 8:24pm | Post# 28

There we go, title changed.

I try to live up to my values, but I let myself down repeatedly in this place.

Not making a good example of myself in Cable thread unfortunately.

mrgreen Jul 5, 2019 8:27pm | Post# 29

Client sentiment is available on various sites. One can compare it across multiple brokers to confirm. IG Client sentiment for example
July 4:
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 78.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.74 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29202; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 18.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 25.6% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

acetrader Jul 5, 2019 8:38pm | Post# 30

Ill-b-back, More evidence to strongly support your theory. The numbers speak volumes. Thank you mrgreen.

Oc6oph Jul 5, 2019 8:41pm | Post# 31

Probably not enough volume in retail to matter

acetrader Jul 5, 2019 8:50pm | Post# 32

We all fall short at times. No harm. You made amends. Good thought provoking thread.

mrgreen Jul 5, 2019 11:28pm | Post# 33

Probably not enough volume in retail to matter
This has no relationship to volume, though the 'sample size' if that is what you mean could be a concern, which is why one should compare across several sites It has to do w/ the metagame of trading.

I believe it is related to this aspect of traders:

“One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.”
Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 11:37pm | Post# 34

{quote} This has no relationship to volume, though the 'sample size' if that is what you mean could be a concern, which is why one should compare across several sites It has to do w/ the metagame of trading. I believe it is related to this aspect of traders: “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” ― Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Those eighths are indeed

jusiur Jul 5, 2019 11:45pm | Post# 35

if some want more info about contrarian, read master neilsdigest´s contributions here in FF

hellsbells Jul 6, 2019 1:30am | Post# 36

I'm having a trading break atm ( still visiting FF for some light engagement where possible). I had the same thought as "I'll be back" regarding making contrarian trades to FF trading page. I never pursued it as a system... I would add that on trading days I have added the rule to NOT LOOK at the interactive trading threads for my pairs, nor to look at what the majority of traders are doing on the trades page, as it has more often than not adversely affected my trading day by creating doubt in my trading plan. A trader needs their own plan, opinion ,execution. End of story. Let's be honest, when it comes to trying to trade seriously, on the day, in the moment , who really finds concurrent interaction with FF benificial (unless it's the news feed)???

hellsbells Jul 6, 2019 1:36am | Post# 37

Stats and chart. Going from January to today... Red lines show when majority are bearish (on a daily view). Blue lines show when majority are bullish (on a daily view) The coloured are gets very choppy with positions and looks very messy. You can fill it in with positional lines if you like. https://www.forexfactory.com/trades....ions-details=1 {image}
Great pic. ( although i will say I'm on my phone and can't zoom in on detail on the chart plus the FF update with all the ads are immensely irritating) I can understand the bear bias with the first red line , looks like a retracement ready to fall again, and similar but opposite with the last blue line on the right. Interesting. I use smaller TF but have been stung at similar crossroads where a retracement is actually a reversal etc. I really do think MM is the ultimate key.

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 2:40am | Post# 38

I'm having a trading break atm ( still visiting FF for some light engagement where possible). I had the same thought as "I'll be back" regarding making contrarian trades to FF trading page. I never pursued it as a system... I would add that on trading days I have added the rule to NOT LOOK at the interactive trading threads for my pairs, nor to look at what the majority of traders are doing on the trades page, as it has more often than not adversely affected my trading day by creating doubt in my trading plan. A trader needs their own plan, opinion...
I agree 100%. I find the interaction is more to break boredom, not financially beneficial.

Ill-b-back Jul 6, 2019 2:41am | Post# 39

{quote} Great pic. ( although i will say I'm on my phone and can't zoom in on detail on the chart plus the FF update with all the ads are immensely irritating) I can understand the bear bias with the first red line , looks like a retracement ready to fall again, and similar but opposite with the last blue line on the right. Interesting. I use smaller TF but have been stung at similar crossroads where a retracement is actually a reversal etc. I really do think MM is the ultimate key.
I think I will use arrows in future, the lines cover the bars and look messy.

acetrader Jul 6, 2019 8:03am | Post# 40

Mrgreen, Would you suggest some other sources for this info other than this site? Thank you for any shared.


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