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-   -   Trading against the herd (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=930316)

wiserltz Jul 6, 2019 11:13pm | Post# 61

{quote} as i understood, 65% means. the public is bullish, more money is waiting, when price drop they tend to average down, so short is a safer choice, if pa supports the drop
I'm thinking we may see some movement back into 1.26xx area before the next leg down.[/quote]
hope that. already bought with the herd

renkotop Jul 7, 2019 4:15am | Post# 62

GBPUSD bullish sentiment currently at 68%.
@Ill-b-back: From which source do you get the sentment from?

Ill-b-back Jul 7, 2019 6:40am | Post# 63

{quote} @Ill-b-back: From which source do you get the sentment from?
The "trade" section of this site

acetrader Jul 7, 2019 5:56pm | Post# 64

Ill-b-back, Giving this a run on the G/$, demo of course. E/$ is another candidate, but another handle up may be first then down. Just my view. Time will tell. In @ 2523 on GBP/USD down. Demo.

Ill-b-back Jul 8, 2019 4:20am | Post# 65

Ill-b-back, Giving this a run on the G/$, demo of course. E/$ is another candidate, but another handle up may be first then down. Just my view. Time will tell. In @ 2523 on GBP/USD down. Demo.
Hi Ace.
I have closed out all my shorts from higher up.
I am now waiting to see if we hit 1.26xx area before looking to short again.
Watch the herd indicator at the end of each day for direction.

Lekkim Jul 8, 2019 4:26am | Post# 66

This topic is definitely interesting.
I'm addressing similar in my thread here on FF. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=928287
The low activity in the trades section, however, might not be data-big enough to give a broad overall market overview.

Ill-b-back Jul 8, 2019 5:19am | Post# 67

This topic is definitely interesting. I'm addressing similar in my thread here on FF. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=928287 The low activity in the trades section, however, might not be data-big enough to give a broad overall market overview.
Hi Lekkim, this idea of making money going against the FF herd is based solely on historical observation.

Lekkim Jul 8, 2019 5:30am | Post# 68

{quote} Hi Lekkim, this idea of making money going against the FF herd is based solely on historical observation.
Hi Ill-b-back

Ok. I have been researching from these ideas of going against 'the amateurs' and the herd, as well.
If believing in the idea of counter trading these parties including backed up by your own past historical positive observations, I think it itself could be a good/profitable indicator.

Ill-b-back Jul 8, 2019 11:39pm | Post# 69

GBPUSD FF retail sentiment end of trading day:
Monday 8th July: 65% BULLISH.

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 1:41am | Post# 70

GBPUSD FF retail sentiment end of trading day: Monday 8th July: 65% BULLISH.
and more than 90% of them in Red

Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 1:44am | Post# 71

{quote} and more than 90% of them in Red
Bullish stats:
Winning trades - 70
Losing trades - 1255
Return: -4.7%

Bearish stats:
Winning trades: 193
Losing trades: 109
Return: 1.5%

Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 1:48am | Post# 72

Trade against the herd..

CrocodileRex Jul 9, 2019 1:57am | Post# 73

{quote} Bullish stats: Winning trades - 70 Losing trades - 1255 Return: -4.7% Bearish stats: Winning trades: 193 Losing trades: 109 Return: 1.5%
What is interesting is if you check all the major pairs. Only one pair is having a positive average return with 13.3%:-

 

  1. NZD/USD Position Stats

LongShortAll
Traders
7685161
Lots10.923.734.6
Avg Entry0.68320.66360.6698
Avg Trade Return-1.1%37.3%13.3%
Avg Trade Duration32 weeks10 weeks24 weeks
Winning Trades2788115
Losing Trades28096376

The rest of the pairs all have negative average returns. Meaning most traders are really losing money.


Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 2:28am | Post# 74

GBPUSD FF retail sentiment end of trading day: Monday 8th July: 65% BULLISH.
Cable still dumping...

Ill-b-back Jul 9, 2019 2:29am | Post# 75

{quote} What is interesting is if you check all the major pairs. Only one pair is having a positive average return with 13.3%:- NZD/USD Position Stats LongShortAll Traders 7685161 Lots10.923.734.6 Avg Entry0.68320.66360.6698 Avg Trade Return-1.1%37.3%13.3% Avg Trade Duration32 weeks10 weeks24 weeks Winning Trades2788115 Losing Trades28096376 The rest of the pairs all have negative average returns. Meaning most traders are really losing money.
Stats don't lie

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 5:00am | Post# 76

{quote} What is interesting is if you check all the major pairs. Only one pair is having a positive average return with 13.3%:- NZD/USD Position Stats LongShortAll Traders 7685161 Lots10.923.734.6 Avg Entry0.68320.66360.6698 Avg Trade Return-1.1%37.3%13.3% Avg Trade Duration32 weeks10 weeks24 weeks Winning Trades2788115 Losing Trades28096376 The rest of the pairs all have negative average returns. Meaning most traders are really losing money.
total lots only 10, too small for a reliable result

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 6:58am | Post# 77

{quote} total lots only 10, too small for a reliable result
7.6m traders and 10lots??

Vorenzd Jul 9, 2019 7:37am | Post# 78

Hello friends!

I think that the reason for this possibly working is not because you are trading against the majority, but rather because you are trading with the trend.

As you might have noticed, most retail traders are taught to trade against the trend, to try to look for reverseals etc... they mostly cut their winnings short and leave their loses late. Then they keep going at the market against the losing trend to recover their trade.

I belive this is the reason why something like this could be feasible, you're just doing opposite of what irrational traders who wait for the market to return to "their direction".

But yeah, as some respected members have already said, it all depends on your analysis.

Regards, Vorenzd.

wiserltz Jul 9, 2019 7:58am | Post# 79

Hello friends! I think that the reason for this possibly working is not because you are trading against the majority, but rather because you are trading with the trend. As you might have noticed, most retail traders are taught to trade against the trend, to try to look for reverseals etc... they mostly cut their winnings short and leave their loses late. Then they keep going at the market against the losing trend to recover their trade. I belive this is the reason why something like this could be feasible, you're just doing opposite of what irrational...
what if herd learn to folllow the trend?
i think the trend will dispair

Vorenzd Jul 9, 2019 8:43am | Post# 80

{quote} what if herd learn to folllow the trend? i think the trend will dispair
I would agree with you on that, this is what i think:


The herd usually tends to start following the trend when there is a reversal about to come, i don't know why, but retail traders get stressed too much and somehow manage to do the exact oposite of the market 90% of the time. I think it's just human psychology, most people think similary and get scared of the market at the same time.

Thing is, you can profit by both following the trend and going against it, but the herd always tend to have some ideas about stop loss hunting, about market manipulation etc so they don't trade what they see, but rather what they feel and then they do the exact oposite of what they should. Another big problem is that many people try to find a "glitch" in the markets and profit of a non existing "glitch".

The herd often gets baited into the trend at the very end of it in order to allow someone to open a much larger counter position at a better price, it's easy to bait sheep and it's easy to manipulate emotional people. Smart money doesn't even need to use their capital to manipulate the market, we just toss the bait and the herd follows.

Regards, Vorenzd.


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