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Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 8:23am | Post# 1

Trading against the herd
 
Trade against the FF retail herd and make money.

The rules are incredibly simple:

As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting.

As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.

MrPresident Jul 5, 2019 9:00am | Post# 2

Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
you should work for George Soros or a big hedge fund if you are that good man

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 10:59am | Post# 3

{quote} you should work for George Soros or a big hedge fund if you are that good man
Anyone can do it, the rules are simple

kofix11 Jul 5, 2019 11:05am | Post# 4

Does it mean you are a seller at the moment?
What is your average holding period?
How long have you traded like that?

Thanks!

senjamerah Jul 5, 2019 11:27am | Post# 5

Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
.......absolutely

KeenPips Jul 5, 2019 11:54am | Post# 6

More like throwing the dice? Maybe we can make a little change to the rules: If your analysis goes against the FF majority, go by it.

KP

acetrader Jul 5, 2019 12:01pm | Post# 7

Ill-b-Back, Sharp idea, simple to test, but WAIT FOR IT ..............Got to have an indicator coded & then you guest it.... next an EA.
Just kidding. Let's see what happens. Btw an indicator may be a good idea. Best trades to you.

gian97 Jul 5, 2019 12:39pm | Post# 8

Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
Interesting, I also use a similar approach. If you want we can confront each other.
I wait for the release of high-impact news on the market, and look at the previous price action.
If before the news the market goes up in a strange way, and most of the traders are long (over 50%, but better than 60% onwards) often the opposite movement happens at the release of the news.

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:36pm | Post# 9

Does it mean you are a seller at the moment? What is your average holding period? How long have you traded like that? Thanks!
I don't currently trade this way, but yes I am short Cable. Closed out some at 2516, holding the rest.
Stats now show 67% long on Cable, (up from 63% earlier in the day), so we could have quite a bit more to drop...

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:43pm | Post# 10

More like throwing the dice? Maybe we can make a little change to the rules: If your analysis goes against the FF majority, go by it. KP
Each person can modify as they please.
This is more of an experiment.
Over the years I have noticed, and been profoundly shocked at the trading styles of some as shown by the stats.
Buying high then holding as it drops, but then (and this is the spooky bit), flipping direction and selling low, almost at the point it starts to turn bullish.

I have not noticed this just once or twice, but with monotonous regularity......

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:48pm | Post# 11

Ill-b-Back, Sharp idea, simple to test, but WAIT FOR IT ..............Got to have an indicator coded & then you guest it.... next an EA. Just kidding. Let's see what happens. Btw an indicator may be a good idea. Best trades to you.
The indicator is usually price action.
As soon as it turns bearish off resistance, you can bet the percentage of bulls will go above 50%

As it starts to turn bullish off support, the percentage of bears will go above 50%...


KeenPips Jul 5, 2019 4:53pm | Post# 12

{quote} Each person can modify as they please. This is more of an experiment. Over the years I have noticed, and been profoundly shocked at the trading styles of some as shown by the stats. Buying high then holding as it drops, but then (and this is the spooky bit), flipping direction and selling low, almost at the point it starts to turn bullish. I have not noticed this just once or twice, but with monotonous regularity......
Indeed I share your sentiment about going against the majority. But it is important to note that at times the majority may be right. Better for each trader to trade based on his or her trading style and market analysis.KP

Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 4:56pm | Post# 13

{quote} Indeed I share your sentiment about going against the majority. But it is important to note that at times the majority may be right. Better for each trader to trade based on his or her trading style and market analysis.KP
Yes I agree.
As I mentioned, this is an experiment, one I have been thinking about for a while.
If you look back at the data, they are indeed correct at times, but not often.
Money management also key.

KeenPips Jul 5, 2019 5:03pm | Post# 14

{quote} Yes I agree. As I mentioned, this is an experiment, one I have been thinking about for a while. If you look back at the data, they are indeed correct at times, but not often. Money management also key.
Very true also. A key problem I notice is that many of us on FF are impulsive, and somewhat, imo, lazy traders with a herd mentality. Thus, we are likely to be on the losing side and so your hypothesis may be valid.KP

mikeeating Jul 5, 2019 5:52pm | Post# 15

I don't disagree with your thread, but I also think there is a lack of successful traders that show transparency in real time. I realise that no-one is obliged to do so, but really, is it actually fair we belittle the losers continually when many red member's often never show real time live manual trades?

I think the only person I really see do this is Davit and his thread, however I don't browse as much anymore

Just my 2 cents

Copernicus Jul 5, 2019 6:17pm | Post# 16

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Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
IMO the vast populace trades randomly without being aware of it (fooled by randomness) and suffer frictional costs with the Law of Large Numbers. (Note: Random in the context of the trade contributing to an overall edge). Reverse a random outcome....you still get a random outcome. A truly bad strategy is as rare as a truly good one with an edge. These 'truly bad ones' are the only forms of strategy that you can reverse and win. Tradable 'real' enduring signals are a pretty rare event in an efficient market.

Example: Price Chart constructed from Random Data
Click to Enlarge

Name: Random.PNG
Size: 497 KB

eyeball Jul 5, 2019 6:34pm | Post# 17

The unstated implication of your argument is that the majority of traders are losers consequently , by doing the opposite (buying when they are selling and vice-versa) the majority of your trades will be winners.The problem with that seemingly logical hypothesis is that the losers are entries that are essentially random and their losing outcomes are a result of random selection rather than anything otherwise and, therefore your opposite position will also be a random entry with the same kind of consequential result (losing),if not sooner than positively later. The opposite of a random entry is not a logical entry, but simply another random entry.

ForexCraft Jul 5, 2019 6:39pm | Post# 18

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Ok, yes I am new here but been trading this way since the middle ages. Yes, I'm that old.

Not only the gbp/usd but any pair - It's not rocket science and the approach as listed by Ill-be-back seems so simple but it works.

As I'll-be-back puts it the dumb money started buying the gbpcad on May 14th and are still buying it. Take a look at the gbpcad daily chart. Its fell since then and still falling.

But as mikeeating puts it no one shows any real transparency in real time. But all it takes is to look at the FF front page and a chart.

Keep things simple in life.

All the best and hope ya all had a great July 4th :-)

Alex
Name:  gbpcad.png
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Ill-b-back Jul 5, 2019 6:44pm | Post# 19

{quote} IMO the vast populace trades randomly without being aware of it (fooled by randomness) and suffer frictional costs with the Law of Large Numbers. (Note: Random in the context of the trade contributing to an overall edge). Reverse a random outcome....you still get a random outcome. A truly bad strategy is as rare as a truly good one with an edge. These 'truly bad ones' are the only forms of strategy that you can reverse and win. Tradable 'real' enduring signals are a pretty rare event in an efficient market. Example: Price Chart constructed...
"Fooled by randomness".
All I know, is the vast majority of the time (based on published live stats from the "trades" section for GBPUSD), when the percentage of longs is above 50%, the pair is bearish.
The opposite for when shorts are above 50%.

This is an experiment only, one I have been considering for quite a while.

When it come to trading and money, opinions and thoughts come a distant 2nd to outcomes.

Hence I will be interested in the outcome....

Marcieny Jul 5, 2019 6:45pm | Post# 20

The unstated implication of your argument is that the majority of traders are losers consequently , by doing the opposite (buying when they are selling and vice-versa) the majority of your trades will be winners.The problem with that seemingly logical hypothesis is that the losers are entries that are essentially random and their losing outcomes are a result of random selection rather than anything otherwise and, therefore your opposite position will also be a random entry with the same kind of consequential result (losing),if not sooner than positively...
I agree with you the only thing right is the market everyone is susceptible to mistakes and hits .... But I believe in studies, techniques and lots of practice, that's all.


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