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-   -   The end of the US stock market is nearing (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=929914)

Igrok Jul 4, 2019 2:31am | Post# 1

The end of the US stock market is nearing
 
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DJIA and S&P have reached their new historical highs yesterday... for the Dow it means that the bullish wave that started forming on December 26, 2018 and which bottomed out at 21712,5 is gonna be the last one on its predominantly bullish historical chart... so. the market is likely to reach its absolute top before the end of this year... most likely even before the end of September, 2019... from that point it is quite likely to turn around and to target the lows of 2009 once again thus reaching 5000-5500 level within the next 3-5 years... seems like another Great Depression 2.0 is on the cards.... this projection chart below seems as the most likely case scenario for the Dow in the not so distant future... before that a reversal single-diagonal diamond is also quite likely to be formed...
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Edd111111 Jul 4, 2019 6:34am | Post# 2

Hi Igrok, I appreciate you making this forecast, what is the chance that the other half of the diamond will play out as you have demonstrated ?

alphadude Jul 4, 2019 6:59am | Post# 3

everything is possible, it may continue to go up, or reverse. we just follow the price.

i once held facebook stock at $80, and sold at $100 thinking it cant go up more. now it is north of $197

never say never

best to avoid forecasting all together.

havo Jul 4, 2019 8:10am | Post# 4

everything is possible, it may continue to go up, or reverse. we just follow the price. i once held facebook stock at $80, and sold at $100 thinking it cant go up more. now it is north of $197 never say never best to avoid forecasting all together.
This..

Just trade what the price its telling you.. always; forecast are "sketchy" at best =)

Sixer Jul 4, 2019 9:26am | Post# 5

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Igrok,

your outlook for decisive lower prices of Dow comes way too early.

See the latest chart of the LEIs index compared to the S&P.

Sixer
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Igrok Jul 4, 2019 9:57am | Post# 6

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There are in fact several reasons for such a forecast. Some are purely technical and some are not.
The technical ones are more or less obvious. First of all there is a measured objective target for the previous large DJIA diamond that was formed on the graph between 2014 and 2016.... you can see it here on the chart as well... that MOT is located at about 27250 and hasn't been reached yet...
the second reason is that since yesterday the current chart has been confirmed as forming a broadening triangle, that has a great potential to turn into a single-diagonal reversal diamond... in this case the whole previous uptrend has to be reversed and fully covered back to the lows of 2009 levels again... though, regardless of that potential the market still owes a sizable retracement back at least to the levels where the previous 2014-2016 diamond has been formed... here is another picture of that older diamond...
non-technical reasons are also based on some past history and such a simple things as common sense for instance... nothing has actually changed much in the US economy since 2008-2009... the entire rise in the stock market value doesn't have any reasonable explanation... the Dow has quadrupled in its value since 2009 bottoms despite the economy is not in better shape today that it was back then... it's been inflated for no apparent reason and must come back to normal... we have already witnessed such an example... NIKKEI was trading at around 40000 mark back in 1990 and then within a few years it just dropped to under 8000 mark... by now, almost 30 years later, it hasn't recovered even a half on its drop back then... and besides, those who know me for a long time should remember that I have successfully predicted all the major changes in the markets starting from 1998 usd/jpy drop and all the way to 2008 crisis which I foresaw coming about 6 months in advance... I would say that the probability of the DJIA to revisit 18000 level is 100% and the probability for it to drop to around 5500 is about 70-75%... the market is likely to top out before the end of this September... and it's gonna be forever... shouldn't fully recover in our lifetime...
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timingchain Jul 4, 2019 10:43am | Post# 7

Fundamental issues include the massive, unprecedented global debt levels. When defaults begin, a cascade effect could develop with the potential to drive interest rates back to highs of the 1980s & 1990s. Until then, interest rates must be kept near zero to keep governments and major corporations from default.

The NQ could drop 80% or more in a crash similar to 2000-2001 crash.

milicentfx Jul 4, 2019 10:52am | Post# 8

its the end of the world as we know it

Inserted Video

Sixer Jul 4, 2019 11:02am | Post# 9

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Why don`t you wait with your prediction until wave "V" (black) is finished ?
It started with correction patterns which indicates an Ending Diagonal.

Sixer
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Name: EW-DJI(D)-3.7.19.gif
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Igrok Jul 4, 2019 11:29am | Post# 10

Why don`t you wait with your prediction until wave "V" (black) is finished ? It started with correction patterns which indicates an Ending Diagonal. Sixer {image}
it doesn't really matter at this moment... diamond or not, quite a sizable drop is imminent... at least back to 18000 level... NIKKEI for example had never actually formed anything reversal vise on the very top and the drop was quite unexpected in the form of a V-formation.... and I posted my view not just for active traders... there are lots of individual investors around as well... and they all have to see ahead of time what's coming ... people need some time to think about it... some have to liquidate their long positions, to pull their investments out and perhaps even to develop a strategy that would allow them to earn something by shorting individual stocks and indices...people have to have enough time to reallocate their money ahead of the crisis... I don't know what it might be... perhaps CFD's or something... as usual all the lemmings will drawn themselves anyways... like Lehman brothers and many others did back in 2008... and this time it's quite unlikely that there will be any safe heavens... I personally don't know what to recommend as an alternative investment... the time for conventional investing is gone... only speculations are likely to make sense from now on... from my perspective anything at and above 27250 on the DJIA is a strong sell...

FxNature Jul 4, 2019 12:45pm | Post# 11

Why don`t you wait with your prediction until wave "V" (black) is finished ? It started with correction patterns which indicates an Ending Diagonal. Sixer {image}
If you inverse LTD looks more logical I suppose...

Greetings

Sixer Jul 5, 2019 3:42am | Post# 12

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FxNature,

the Matrix Add-On you are refering to contains a BUG.
The gif shows a Copan count + comments of the S&P which shows the correct position of the MC3 (LTD) turning points. An inversion is incorrect.
LTD-2, LTD-4 etc. are Highs; LTD-3, LTD-5 etc. are Lows

Sixer
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chongrudy12 Jul 5, 2019 7:53pm | Post# 13

DJIA and S&P have reached their new historical highs yesterday... for the Dow it means that the bullish wave that started forming on December 26, 2018 and which bottomed out at 21712,5 is gonna be the last one on its predominantly bullish historical chart... so. the market is likely to reach its absolute top before the end of this year... most likely even before the end of September, 2019... from that point it is quite likely to turn around and to target the lows of 2009 once again thus reaching 5000-5500 level within the next 3-5 years... seems...
so im going to assume you placed a short on sp? if youre so confident in this analysis

biDc Jul 6, 2019 1:51am | Post# 14

What kind of catalyst would you anticipate driving the downturn? In the early 2000s it was the tech bubble and the 2008s subprime mortgage.

Sixer Jul 6, 2019 4:39am | Post# 15

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If the DAX is following the dates of the Delta cycles in the Medium Time frame (red), the next Low is at the 24.7.

Sixer
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Name: D-DAX-5.7.19.gif
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Igrok Jul 6, 2019 4:52am | Post# 16

{quote} so im going to assume you placed a short on sp? if youre so confident in this analysis
it's not the top yet... a couple more months has left perhaps... I personally don't trade stocks but have already warned all my friends and investors about this potential problem to emerge quite soon...

Igrok Jul 6, 2019 4:58am | Post# 17

What kind of catalyst would you anticipate driving the downturn? In the early 2000s it was the tech bubble and the 2008s subprime mortgage.
any financial crisis gets so devastating because it wasn't expected thus couldn't be predicted in advance... "black swans" occur when almost no one can see them coming... same thing must be this time as well...

Igrok Jul 6, 2019 5:01am | Post# 18

If the DAX is following the dates of the Delta cycles in the Medium Time frame (red), the next Low is at the 24.7. Sixer {image}
likely to form a double top on the DAX...

k4y Jul 6, 2019 6:48am | Post# 19

This is the most ridiculous and unrealistic market prediction I have ever read! You do realize that US stocks ain't Bitcoin, right?
The only scenario I can think of that could drop US stocks down to level 5000 within the next 3-5 years is if AOC would become the next POTUS!
If Trump gets reelected, I have no doubt at all that the market will remain bullish until 2024.

Igrok Jul 6, 2019 9:30am | Post# 20

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This is the most ridiculous and unrealistic market prediction I have ever read! You do realize that US stocks ain't Bitcoin, right? The only scenario I can think of that could drop US stocks down to level 5000 within the next 3-5 years is if AOC would become the next POTUS! If Trump gets reelected, I have no doubt at all that the market will remain bullish until 2024.
no need for a wild imagination... something like that had already taken place before... here is the NIKKEI 250 historic chart... January 1990 - top at 39260.0... March 2009 - bottom at 7021.3... drop - 82,12 % in 10 years... at that time, in the first half of 90's, Japan had the second largest economy in the world...
besides, do you realize that I have been a professional trader and a capital manager for 26 years and might know the difference?
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